Inês Batista

Mortality in Portugal associated with the heat wave of August 2003: early estimation of effect, using a rapid method

During the first two weeks of August 2003, Portugal was affected by a severe heat wave. Following the identification in Portugal of the influence of heat waves on mortality in 1981 and 1991 (estimated excess of about 1900 and 1000 deaths respectively), the Observatório Nacional de Saúde (ONSA) - Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, together with the Vigilância Previsão e Informação - Instituto de Meteorologia, created a surveillance system called ÍCARO, which has been in operation since 1999. ÍCARO identifies heat waves with potential influence on mortality [1]. Before the end of the 2003 heat wave, ONSA had produced a preliminary estimate of its effect on mortality. The results based on daily number of deaths from 1 June to 12 August 2003 were presented within 4 working days. Data was gathered from 31 National Civil registrars, covering the district capitals of all 18 districts of mainland Portugal, and representing approximately 40% of the mainlands mortality. The number of deaths registered in the period 30 July to 12 August was compared with the ones registered during 3 comparison periods: (in July): 1-14 July, 1-28 July, and 15-28 July). 15-28 July, the period best resembling the heat wave in time and characteristics, produced an estimation of 37.7% higher mortality rate then the value expected under normal temperature conditions. From this value, an estimate of 1316 death excess was obtained for mainland Portugal. The main purpose of this article is to present the method used to identify and assess the occurrence of an effect (excess mortality) during the heat wave of summer 2003.

Wave structure and polarization electric field development in the bottomside F layer leading to postsunset equatorial spread F

In this paper we present the results of a study on the characteristics of large-scale wave structure in the equatorial ionospheric F region that serve as precursor to postsunset development of the spread F/plasma bubble irregularities. The study is based on analysis of Digisonde data from three equatorial sites in Brazil (Fortaleza, Sao Luis, and Cachimbo) for a period of about 2 months at a medium solar activity phase. Small-amplitude oscillations in the F layer heights, extracted at a number of plasma frequencies, present characteristics as them being generated from upward propagating gravity waves. They represent wave structures in polarization electric field having zonal scale of a few hundred kilometers. Their amplitudes in the afternoon hours undergo amplification toward evening, leading to postsunset development of equatorial spread F/plasma bubble irregularities, on a statistical basis. On the days of their larger amplitudes they appear to occur in phase coherence on all days, and correspondingly, the evening prereversal vertical drift velocities are larger than on days of the smaller amplitudes of the wave structure that appear at random phase on the different days. The sustenance of these precursor wave structures is supported by the relatively large ratio (approaching unity) of the F region-to-total field line-integrated Pedersen conductivities as calculated using the Sheffield University Plasmasphere-Ionosphere Model simulation of the low-latitude ionosphere. The significant amplification in the wave structure toward sunset and the “phase coherent” nature of their occurrences on different days are explained tentatively on the basis of the spatial resonance mechanism.

Equatorial electrojet responses to intense solar flares under geomagnetic disturbance time electric fields

Large enhancement in the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) current can occur due to sudden increase in the E layer density arising from solar flare associated ionizing radiations, as also from background electric fields modified by magnetospheric disturbances when present before or during a solar flare. We investigate the EEJ responses at widely separated longitudes during two X-class flares that occurred at different activity phases surrounding the magnetic super storm sequences of 28–29 October 2003. During the 28 October flare we observed intense reverse electrojet under strong westward electric field in the sunrise sector over Jicamarca. Sources of westward disturbance electric fields driving large EEJ current are identified for the first time. Model calculations on the E layer density, with and without flare, and comparison of the results between Jicamarca and Sao Luis suggested enhanced westward electric field due to the flare occurring close to sunrise (over Jicamarca). During the flare on 29 October, which occurred during a rapid AE recovery, a strong overshielding electric field of westward polarity over Jicamarca delayed an expected EEJ eastward growth due to flare-induced ionization enhancement in the afternoon. This EEJ response yielded a measure of the overshielding decay time determined by the storm time Region 2 field-aligned current. This paper will present a detailed analysis of the EEJ responses during the two flares, including a quantitative evaluation of the flare-induced electron density enhancements and identification of electric field sources that played dominant roles in the large westward EEJ at the sunrise sector over Jicamarca.

The 1918–1919 Influenza Pandemic in Portugal: A Regional Analysis of Death Impact

Abstract Although the impact of deaths occurring during the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic has been assessed in many archeo-epidemiologic studies, detailed estimates are not available for Portugal. We applied negative binomial models to monthly data on respiratory-related and all-cause deaths at the national and district levels from Portugal for 1916–1922. Influenza-related excess mortality was computed as the difference between observed and expected deaths. Poisson regression was used to estimate the association of geographic and sociodemographic factors with excess mortality. Two waves of pandemic influenza—July 1918 to January 1919 and April to May 1919—were identified, for which the excess all-cause death rate was 195.7 per 10,000 persons. All districts of Portugal were affected. The pandemic hit earlier in southeastern districts and the main cities, but excess mortality was highest in the northeast, in line with the high death burden experienced by northern Spanish provinces. During the period of intense excess mortality (fall/winter 1918–1919), population density was negatively associated with pandemic impact. This pattern changed during the March 1919 to June 1920 wave, when excess mortality increased with population density and in northern and western directions. Portuguese islands were less and later affected. Given the geographic heterogeneity evidenced in our study, subnational sociodemographic characteristics and connectivity should be integrated in pandemic preparedness plans.