Ingrid Anne Johanson

Slicing up the San Francisco Bay Area: Block kinematics and fault slip rates from GPS‐derived surface velocities

Received 26 October 2004; revised 11 February 2005; accepted 10 March 2005; published 16 June 2005. [i] Observations of surface deformation allow us to determine the kinematics of faults in the San Francisco Bay Area. We present the Bay Area velocity unification (BAVU, bay view), a compilation of over 200 horizontal surface velocities computed from campaign-style and continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from 1993 to 2003. We interpret this interseismic velocity field using a three-dimensional block model to determine the relative contributions of block motion, elastic strain accumulation, and shallow aseismic creep. The total relative motion between the Pacific plate and the rigid Sierra Nevada/Great Valley (SNGV) microplate is 37.9 ± 0.6 mm yr -1 directed toward N30.4°W ± 0.8° at San Francisco (±2σ). Fault slip rates from our preferred model are typically within the error bounds of geologic estimates but provide a better fit to geodetic data (notable right-lateral slip rates in mm yr -1 : San Gregorio fault, 2.4 ± 1.0; West Napa fault, 4.0 ± 3.0; zone of faulting along the eastern margin of the Coast Range, 5.4 ± 1.0; and Mount Diablo thrust, 3.9 ± 1.0 of reverse slip and 4.0 ± 0.2 of right-lateral strike slip). Slip on the northern Calaveras is partitioned between both the West Napa and Concord/Green Valley fault systems. The total convergence across the Bay Area is negligible. Poles of rotation for Bay Area blocks progress systematically from the North America-Pacific to North America-SNGV poles. The resulting present-day relative motion cannot explain the strike of most Bay Area faults, but fault strike does loosely correlate with inferred plate motions at the time each fault initiated.

Coseismic and postseismic slip of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake from space-geodetic data

We invert interferometric synthetic aperture radar (insar) data jointly with campaign and continuous global positioning system (gps) data for slip in the coseismic and postseismic periods of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. The insar dataset consists of eight interferograms from data collected by the Envisat and Radarsat satellites spanning the time of the earthquake and variable amounts of the postseismic period. The two datasets complement each other, with the insar providing dense sampling of motion in the range direction of the satellite and the gps providing more sparse, but three-dimensional measurements of ground motion. The model assumes exponential decay of the postseismic slip with a decay time constant of 0.087 years, determined from time series modeling of continuous gps and creepmeter data. We find a geodetic moment magnitude of M 6.2 for a 1-day coseismic model and M w 6.1 for the entire postseismic period. The coseismic rupture occurred mainly in two slip asperities; one near the hypocenter and the other 15–20 km north. Postseismic slip occurred on the shallow portions of the fault and near the rupture areas of two M 5.0 aftershocks. A comparison of the geodetic slip models with seismic moment estimates suggests that the coseismic moment release of the Parkfield earthquake is as little as 25% of the total. This underlines the importance of aseismic slip in the slip budget for the Parkfield segment. Online material: Complete data tables and supplemental tables.

Uplift and seismicity driven by groundwater depletion in central California

Groundwater use in California’s San Joaquin Valley exceeds replenishment of the aquifer, leading to substantial diminution of this resource and rapid subsidence of the valley floor. The volume of groundwater lost over the past century and a half also represents a substantial reduction in mass and a large-scale unburdening of the lithosphere, with significant but unexplored potential impacts on crustal deformation and seismicity. Here we use vertical global positioning system measurements to show that a broad zone of rock uplift of up to 1–3 mm per year surrounds the southern San Joaquin Valley. The observed uplift matches well with predicted flexure from a simple elastic model of current rates of water-storage loss, most of which is caused by groundwater depletion. The height of the adjacent central Coast Ranges and the Sierra Nevada is strongly seasonal and peaks during the dry late summer and autumn, out of phase with uplift of the valley floor during wetter months. Our results suggest that long-term and late-summer flexural uplift of the Coast Ranges reduce the effective normal stress resolved on the San Andreas Fault. This process brings the fault closer to failure, thereby providing a viable mechanism for observed seasonality in microseismicity at Parkfield and potentially affecting long-term seismicity rates for fault systems adjacent to the valley. We also infer that the observed contemporary uplift of the southern Sierra Nevada previously attributed to tectonic or mantle-derived forces is partly a consequence of human-caused groundwater depletion.

Operational real‐time GPS‐enhanced earthquake early warning

Moment magnitudes for large earthquakes (Mw≥7.0) derived in real time from near-field seismic data can be underestimated due to instrument limitations, ground tilting, and saturation of frequency/amplitude-magnitude relationships. Real-time high-rate GPS resolves the buildup of static surface displacements with the S wave arrival (assuming nonsupershear rupture), thus enabling the estimation of slip on a finite fault and the events geodetic moment. Recently, a range of high-rate GPS strategies have been demonstrated on off-line data. Here we present the first operational system for real-time GPS-enhanced earthquake early warning as implemented at the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (BSL) and currently analyzing real-time data for Northern California. The BSL generates real-time position estimates operationally using data from 62 GPS stations in Northern California. A fully triangulated network defines 170+ station pairs processed with the software trackRT. The BSL uses G-larmS, the Geodetic Alarm System, to analyze these positioning time series and determine static offsets and preevent quality parameters. G-larmS derives and broadcasts finite fault and magnitude information through least-squares inversion of the static offsets for slip based on a priori fault orientation and location information. This system tightly integrates seismic alarm systems (CISN-ShakeAlert, ElarmS-2) as it uses their P wave detections to trigger its processing; quality control runs continuously. We use a synthetic Hayward Fault earthquake scenario on real-time streams to demonstrate recovery of slip and magnitude. Reanalysis of the Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake tests the impact of dynamic motions on offset estimation. Using these test cases, we explore sensitivities to disturbances of a priori constraints (origin time, location, and fault strike/dip).

Spatial variations in fault friction related to lithology from rupture and afterslip of the 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake

Following earthquakes, faults are often observed to continue slipping aseismically. It has been proposed that this afterslip occurs on parts of the fault with rate-strengthening friction that are stressed by the main shock, but our understanding has been limited by a lack of immediate, high-resolution observations. Here we show that the behavior of afterslip following the 2014 South Napa earthquake in California varied over distances of only a few kilometers. This variability cannot be explained by coseismic stress changes alone. We present daily positions from continuous and survey GPS sites that we remeasured within 12 h of the main shock and surface displacements from the new Sentinel-1 radar mission. This unique geodetic data set constrains the distribution and evolution of coseismic and postseismic fault slip with exceptional resolution in space and time. We suggest that the observed heterogeneity in behavior is caused by lithological controls on the frictional properties of the fault plane.

Interseismic coupling and refined earthquake potential on the Hayward‐Calaveras fault zone

Interseismic strain accumulation and fault creep is usually estimated from GPS and alignment arrays data, which provide precise but spatially sparse measurements. Here we use interferometric synthetic aperture radar to resolve the interseismic deformation associated with the Hayward and Calaveras Faults (HF and CF) in the East San Francisco Bay Area. The large 1992–2011 SAR data set permits evaluation of short- and long-wavelength deformation larger than 2 mm/yr without alignment of the velocity field to a GPS-based model. Our time series approach in which the interferogram selection is based on the spatial coherence enables deformation mapping in vegetated areas and leads to refined estimates of along-fault surface creep rates. Creep rates vary from 0 ± 2 mm/yr on the northern CF to 14 ± 2 mm/yr on the central CF south of the HF surface junction. We estimate the long-term slip rates by inverting the long-wavelength deformation and the distribution of shallow slip due to creep by inverting the remaining velocity field. This distribution of slip reveals the locations of locked and slowly creeping patches with potential for a M6.8 ± 0.3 on the HF near San Leandro, a M6.6 ± 0.2 on the northern CF near Dublin, a M6.5 ± 0.1 on the HF south of Fremont, and a M6.2 ± 0.2 on the central CF near Morgan Hill. With cascading multisegment ruptures the HF rupturing from Berkeley to the CF junction could produce a M6.9 ± 0.1, the northern CF a M6.6 ± 0.1, the central CF a M6.9 ± 0.2 from the junction to Gilroy, and a joint rupture of the HF and central CF could produce a M7.1 ± 0.1.

Potential for larger earthquakes in the East San Francisco Bay Area due to the direct connection between the Hayward and Calaveras Faults

The Hayward and Calaveras Faults, two strike-slip faults of the San Andreas System located in the East San Francisco Bay Area, are commonly considered independent structures for seismic hazard assessment. We use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture RADAR to show that surface creep on the Hayward Fault continues 15 km farther south than previously known, revealing new potential for rupture and damage south of Fremont. The extended trace of the Hayward Fault, also illuminated by shallow repeating micro-earthquakes, documents a surface connection with the Calaveras Fault. At depths greater than 3–5 km, repeating micro-earthquakes located 10 km north of the surface connection highlight the 3-D wedge geometry of the junction. Our new model of the Hayward and Calaveras Faults argues that they should be treated as a single system with potential for earthquake ruptures generating events with magnitudes greater than 7, posing a higher seismic hazard to the East San Francisco Bay Area than previously considered.