Ingrid Jacquemin

A System-based Paradigm of Drought Analysis for Operational Management

Conventionally droughts are studied in terms of their dimensions (severity, duration and areal extent), without specifying the affected system. The paper presents an innovative system-based approach for drought analysis, which can lead to rational decisions for combating drought. Concepts of water scarcity (drought, water shortage, aridity and desertification) are viewed within the perspective of this new approach. The paper focuses also on operational water management in the presence of drought. Starting from the needs for such management, the affected system is defined and the related quantities are identified. Also, sub-systems are considered which allow the establishment of the link between specific variables and drought. Some drought characterisation methods are particularly suited for the systemic approach. Finally drought is considered as a natural hazard phenomenon and its consequences are discussed. Each physical sub-system can be improved by a variety of measures aiming at decreasing its vulnerability towards drought, so that the drought risk is mitigated. It is concluded that the clear definition of the affected system on the spatial and temporal scales can significantly contribute to the rational management for combating drought.

Towards Participatory Integrated Valuation and Modelling of Ecosystem Services under Land-use Change

The lack of consideration for ecosystem services (ES) values in current decision making is recognised as one of the main reasons leading to an intense competition and arguably unsustainable use of well-located available land. In this article, we present a framework for the Valuation Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Services (VOTES), aiming at structuring a methodology that is applicable for valuing ES in a given area through a set of indicators that are both meaningful for local actors and scientifically constructed. Examples from a case study area in central Belgium are used to illustrate the methodology: a stepwise procedure starting with the valuation of ES at present. The valuation of the social, biophysical and economic dimensions of ES is based on current land-use patterns. Subsequently, scenarios of land-use change are used to explore potential losses (and/or gains) of ES in the future of the study area. With the VOTES framework, we aim at (1) incorporating stakeholders’ inputs to widen the valuation process and increase trust in policy-oriented approach; (2) integrating valuation of ES with a sustainable development stance accounting for land-use change and (3) developing suggestions to policy-makers for integrating ES monitoring in policy developments.