Ingrid van Putten

Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.

As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring.

Price integration in the Australian rock lobster industry: implications for management and climate change adaptation

Rock lobster fisheries are Australias most valuable wild fisheries in terms of both value of production and value of exports. Different states harvest and export different lobster species, with most of the landings being sent to the Hong Kong market. A perception in the Australian lobster industry is that the different species are independent on the export market, such that a change in landings of one species has no impact on the price of the others. This study investigates the market integration of Australian exports to Hong Kong for the four species and different exporting states. Our results indicate all four species and producers/export states are perceived to be substitutes for one another, so that, in the long run, prices paid to operators in the industry will move together. The integrated nature of the Hong Kong export market for Australian lobster suggests that the potential impacts of alternative fisheries management and development strategies at state and species levels cannot be considered in isolation, at least from an economic perspective. In addition, impacts of external shocks affecting production in one state (e.g. climate change) can be expected to affect all Australian lobster fisheries.

Facing the wave of change: stakeholder perspectives on climate adaptation for Australian seafood supply chains

Climate change is one of the most important issues confronting the sustainable supply of seafood, with projections suggesting major effects on wild and farmed fisheries worldwide. While climate change has been a consideration for Australian fisheries and aquaculture management, emphasis in both research and adaptation effort has been at the production end of supply chains—impacts further along the chain have been overlooked to date. A holistic biophysical and socio-economic system view of seafood industries, as represented by end-to-end supply chains, may lead to an additional set of options in the face of climate change, thus maximizing opportunities for improved fishery profitability, while also reducing the potential for maladaptation. In this paper, we explore Australian seafood industry stakeholder perspectives on potential options for adaptation along seafood supply chains based on future potential scenarios. Stakeholders, representing wild capture and aquaculture industries, provided a range of actions targeting different stages of the supply chain. Overall, proposed strategies were predominantly related to the production end of the supply chain, suggesting that greater attention in developing adaptation options is needed at post-production stages. However, there are chain-wide adaptation strategies that can present win–win scenarios, where commercial objectives beyond adaptation can also be addressed alongside direct or indirect impacts of climate. Likewise, certain adaptation strategies in place at one stage of the chain may have varying implications on other stages of the chain. These findings represent an important step in understanding the role of supply chains in effective adaptation of fisheries and aquaculture industries to climate change.

A Bayesian belief network model for community-based coastal resource management in the Kei Islands, Indonesia

Understanding the specific relationships between ecological and socioeconomic conditions and marine tenure is likely to contribute to successful functioning of self-governance institutions for common-pool resources. Complex interrelationships of factors influencing fishing activities of coastal communities and implementation of customary marine tenure over their waters can be represented in a Bayesian belief network model. We developed a Bayesian belief network model that includes the links between factors for fishing communities in the Kei Islands in Indonesia, based on indepth local surveys. Our results showed that the cumulative impacts of multiple factors on key social, economic, and environmental outcomes can be much larger than the impact from a single source, which implies that management or policy intervention could be more effective when addressing multiple factors simultaneously. The local communitys perception of fish stock abundance trends was the single most important factor influencing social, economic, and environmental outcomes of their community-based management system. The frequency of which outsiders were sighted in territorial waters was strongly (negatively) linked to weak or strong implementation of a customary tenure (Sasi) and the occurrence of intervillage and intravillage conflict. Ecological variables also drive these conflicts, which illustrates the close connection between ecological and social outcomes, and the importance of considering social-ecological systems as a whole.

The environmental impact of two Australian rock lobster fishery supply chains under a changing climate

Understanding the potential future impacts of climate change along the supply chain for highly traded fisheries products can inform choices to enhance future global seafood security.We examine the supply chains of the Australian tropical rock lobster fishery (TRL) and southern rock lobster fishery (SRL), with similar destination markets but different catch methods and fishing communities. A boat-to-market analysis allows for comparison and illustration of the effects of single supply-chain aspects. We used life cycle assessment to provide an overview of the environmental footprint, expressed as global warming potential (GWP), eutrophication, and cumulative energy demand, for two lobster products: live animals and frozen tails. The export phase contributed 44% and 56% of GWP of live-weight lobster for SRL and TRL, respectively. The SRL fishery currently produces 68% of the combined 1,806.7 tonnes of lobster product and 78% of the combined global warming for the two fisheries over the whole supply chain. We develop climate adaptation options that: (1) reduce the overall footprint; (2) consider alternative supply-chain strategies (e.g., reduce cost); and (3) predicted impact of future climate change. Adaptation options include: more direct export routes and change in the export transport mode. Value adding and product differentiation, which can level out seasonality and thus spread risk, is likely to become increasingly important for both increases and decreases in predicted climate-induced abundance of fish species.

Fishing for the impacts of climate change in the marine sector: a case study

Purpose – This paper aims, using a case study-based research approach, to investigate the role of climate and non-climate drivers in shaping three commercial marine sectors: fishing, aquaculture and marine tourism. Essential elements of climate change research include taking a whole of systems approach, which entails a socio-ecological perspective, and considering climate challenges alongside other challenges faced by resource users. Design/methodology/approach – The analysis is based on information gained using in-depth semi-structured interviews in a coastal community in southeast Australia. Even though climate drivers differ, the economic sectors of this community are representative of many similar coastal communities around Australia. Findings – Results show that at a community level, people involved in, or associated with, marine sectors are aware of climate change impacts on the marine environment. Even though many may not see it as a pressing issue, the potential effect of climate change on busines...

DEA-based predictors for estimating fleet size changes when modelling the introduction of rights-based management

The introduction of individual transferable quotas (ITQs) into a fishery is going to change not only the amount of catch a fleet can take, but often also changes the fleet structure, particularly if total allowable catches are decreased. This can have an impact on the economic, social and environmental outcomes of fisheries management. Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) modelling approaches are recognised as the most appropriate method for assessing impacts of management, but these require information as to how fleets may change under different management systems. In this study, we test the applicability of data envelopment analysis (DEA) based performance measures as predictors of how a fishing fleet might change under the introduction of ITQs and also at different levels of quota. In particular, we test the assumption that technical efficiency and capacity utilisation are suitable predictors of which boats are likely to exit the fishery. We also consider scale efficiency as an alternative predictor. We apply the analysis to the Torres Strait tropical rock lobster fishery that is transitioning to an ITQ-based management system for one sector of the fishery. The results indicate that capacity utilisation, technical efficiency and scale efficiency are reasonable indicators of who may remain in the fishery post ITQs. We find that the use of these measures to estimate the impacts of lower quota levels provides consistent fleet size estimates at the aggregate level, but which individual vessels are predicted to exit is dependent on the measure used.