Ira Rosenwaike

African-american mortality at older ages: Results of a matching study

In this paper we investigate the quality of age reporting on death certificates of elderly African-Americans. We link a sample of death certificates of persons age 65+ in 1985 to records for the same individuals in U.S. censuses of 1900, 1910, and 1920 and to records of the Social Security Administration. The ages at death reported on death certificates are too young on average. Errors are greater for women than for men. Despite systematic underreporting of age at death, too many deaths are registered at ages 95+. This excess reflects an age distribution of deaths that declines steeply with age, so that the base for upward transfers into an age category is much larger than the base for transfers downward and out. When corrected ages at death are used to estimate age-specific death rates, African-American mortality rates increase substantially above age 85 and the racial “crossover” in mortality disappears. Uncertainty about white rates at ages 95+, however, prevents a decisive racial comparison at the very oldest ages.

Age reporting among white Americans aged 85+: results of a record linkage study.

This study investigates age reporting on the death certificates of older white Americans. We link a sample of death certificates for native-born whites aged 85+ in 1985 to Social Security Administration records and to records of the U.S. censuses of 1900, 1910, and 1920. When ages in these sources are compared, inconsistencies are found to be minimal, even beyond age 95. Results show little distortion and no systematic biases in the reported age distribution of deaths. To explore the effect of age misreporting on old-age mortality, we estimate “corrected” age-specific death rates by the extinct-generation method for the U.S. white cohort born in 1885. With few exceptions, corrected and uncorrected rates in single years differ by less than 3% and are not systematically biased. When we compare corrected rates with those for the same birth cohort in France, Japan, and Sweden, we find that white American mortality at older ages is exceptionally low.

The Role of Demographic Factors in the Institutionalization of the Elderly

This study, based on data from the 1980 census, is concerned with clarifying the relation of demographic factors to institutionalization of the very old. Particular scrutiny was given to the role of close kin, especially spouses and children, as explanatory variables. Factors significantly associated with institutionalization, as determined through a logit regression model, included the absence of a spouse, the absence of a child, advanced age, and the presence of a disability. Marital status was a more significant factor for males than for females in determining institutionalization.

Surname Analysis as a Means of Estimating Minority Elderly An Application Using Asian Surnames

Estimates of the age, sex, and geographic distribution of four elderly Asian-origin populations residing in the United States are constructed using surname data obtained for 1990 from the Medicare enrollment files. The generally close correspondence of the results with baseline data for these four groups from the 1990 decennial census demonstrate the applicability of a surname approach. Surname analysis can be used as a means of drawing samples of ethnic minority groups, of estimating the current size of ethnic populations, and as an alternative method of deriving additional demographic information, for example, mortality statistics, for selected groups.

VERIFICATION OF THE AGES OF SUPERCENTENARIANS IN THE UNITED STATES: RESULTS OF A MATCHING STUDY*

Unprecedented declines in mortality among the very old have led to the emergence of “true” supercentenarians (persons aged 110 and over). The ages of these individuals have been welldocumented in European countries with a history of birth registration, but have not been systematically studied in the United States, which lacks similar documentation and where the inaccuracy of age reporting has been an issue. To verify age, we linked records from the Social Security Administration for close to 700 individuals who died from 1980 to 1999 purportedly at ages 110 and older to records of the U.S. censuses of 1880 and 1900, conducted when these individuals were children. This group was a residual group from an earlier file that was reduced by the SSA after data checks that eliminated incorrect records. The results of the matched records for the residual file indicate that over 90% of the whites were accurately reported as supercentenarians, but only half of the blacks appeared to have attained age 110. The verification of age shows that the United States has more “true” supercentenarians than do other nations

Accuracy of death certificate ages for the extreme aged

This study attempts to verify age reporting on the death certificate for the “extreme aged” population and to evaluate the accuracy of recent death rates for this group in light of the findings. In addition, methods used and problems encountered in carrying out a record linkage study, particularly a low match rate, are identified. A sample of more than three thousand death records was selected from those filed for decedents age 85 and over in Pennsylvania and New Jersey in the 1968 to 1972 period. Death certificates of 53 percent of whites and 30 percent of nonwhites were linked to the 1900 U.S. Census. A comparison of age on the death certificate with the age reported for the same individual in the census record showed a high level of agreement for whites, except at ages 100 and over; for nonwhites, however, age agreement levels were substantially lower. Within racial groups, there was little difference by sex in agreement on age. These results, corroborating those of earlier studies, make it clear that nonwhite mortality at the oldest ages has been consistently understated in official statistics.

Violent deaths among Mexican-, Puerto Rican- and Cuban-born migrants in the United States

This paper analyzes nationwide and regional mortality rates for violent causes of death among persons born in Mexico, Puerto Rico and Cuba, living in the continental United States. The Mexican-born had the highest death rates from accidents, the Puerto Rican-born from homicide and the Cuban-born from suicide. In each case of excess mortality in an Hispanic nativity group, the death rates for men by cause were higher than the comparative rates for white and blacks both nationally and regionally. Mortality rates for their major cause of violent death were highest for the Puerto Rican-born and Cuban-born men in their areas of concentration. Mexican-born men had higher accident death rates outside their areas of concentration. Contributing factors to violent causes of death include the interaction of socioeconomic, behavioral, cultural and psychological factors.

Differential mortality by ethnicity: Foreign-born Irish, Italians and Jews in New York city, 1979-81

This paper compares the mortality experience of foreign-born Irish, Italians and Jews in New York City in 1979-81. For the Irish and Italian groups, 1980 census data were used to calculate age-specific and age-standardized death rates. For the Jewish group, denominator data were not available, so proportional mortality analysis was used. An estimate was made to show the degree to which standardized proportional mortality ratios approximated relative standard mortality measures. Major causes of death and other selected causes were examined. The results of this analysis support previous studies showing mortality is significantly greater among Irish-born immigrants than among the Italian born. The proportional mortality data suggest that the Jewish and Italian groups have cause of death distributions relatively similar to each other and dissimilar to the Irish group. Alcohol-related causes of death appear to be a major source of the uniqueness of the Irish mortality experience.

A new evaluation of United States census data on the extreme aged.

Population and mortality data for the extreme aged have generally been considered subject to a large degree of error, particularly for nonwhites. In this study, estimates of the United States population 85 years of age and over in 1960 are devised through a procedure known as the “method of extinct generations,” which permits the reconstruction of “extinct” population cohorts from a series of annual death statistics. Estimates of the total population by single year of age and of sex-color groups by five-year age groups are compared with the 1960 census. With some exceptions, the data for whites show remarkable correspondence; the tally for nonwhites developed from death records falls considerably short of the census count, indicating a greater overstatement of age in the latter source.

The Accuracy of Age Reporting among Elderly African Americans Evidence of a Birth Registration Effect

This article expands on previous research that has documented disparities in age information for elderly African Americans. Drawing on a sample of death certificates for Maryland-born African Americans purportedly aged 65-79 years, the validity of age data on both death certificates and social security records is examined through comparison with birth dates provided on linked birth records. The commonly assumed relationship between birth registration and quality of age reporting also is investigated. When compared to birth records, age reporting on social security records is significantly more accurate than that on death records. Age agreement between matched death and social security records closely reflects age validity as determined from birth records. Findings based on logistic regression analysis support the hypothesized birth registration effect: Controlling for demographic characteristics, persons known to have birth certificates exhibited significantly greater age agreement on linked death certificates and social security records (odds ratio = 2.3).