Ishak Yussof

Economic growth and human development – what do time series data say for Sudan?

This study examines United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)s 1996 hypothesis regarding the existence of a two-way relationship between economic growth (EG) and human development (HD) using Sudanese time series data (1960–2012). The hypothesis suggests that there is a feedback effect between HD and EG. This implies that improving HD could enhance EG opportunities and vice versa. In this study, first we analyse the long-run cointegration relationships using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Then, to identify the short-run dynamic relationship between HD and EG, we employ the error correction model derived from the ARDL. The results show that in the long run, HD is positively related to EG through education and employment performance channels. At the same time, EG could positively improve the opportunities for the education of households and involvement in economic activities. The short-run dynamic estimation confirms that there is a bidirectional relationship between EG and HD. The overall findings support UNDPs 1996 hypothesis concerning the existence of a two-way relationship between EG and HD. The results also confirm that improving humanity in Sudan promotes not only HD but also overall economic development.

Africa’s economic regionalism: is there any other obstacle?

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to extend the gravity model to examine the role of infrastructure (including human capital (HC)), macroeconomic policies, the institutional quality and the colonial regimes on intra-African trade during the period 1990-2013. The results show that the basic gravity variables have substantial influence on the bilateral trade in the continent. Most interestingly, whilst internal conflicts appear to have harmful and significant impacts on the flow of such trade, HC, the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) and the British colonial regime appear as encouraging factors. The results of the study imply that devoting more resources to HC and creating a favourable investment environment should come as a top priority in current efforts to facilitate Africa’s economic regionalism. Design/methodology/approach - The paper employs Tobit technique on a semi-log extended form for the gravity model. Findings - The results show that the basic gravity variables have substantial influence on the bilateral trade in the continent. Most interestingly, whilst internal conflicts appear to have harmful and significant impacts on the flow of such trade; HC, the flow of FDI and the British colonial regime come out as encouraging factors. Originality/value - The results provided can be useful to design policies oriented to facilities intra-trade between African economies. So far, this is the first study that incorporates the soft type of infrastructures, colonization and institutional quality in the investigation of the factors that can influence intra-Africa trade.

Factors Affecting Fertility-New Evidence from Malaysia

Abstract This research paper investigates long and short term determinants of fertility rates in Malaysia based on basic macroeconomic variables for the period 1980-2014 using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The study reveals that over a long term period, all the selected variables (GDP, infant mortality rate, females’ education and employment) have had significant and negative impact on total fertility rates. Whilst during the short term period, only the infant mortality rate has had a positive impact. Since population growth is partly determined by fertility rates, efforts to increase population in Malaysia should consider factors that affect those rates.

International trade and unemployment: evidence from selected Arab countries

Empirical studies examining whether exposure to international trade creates or destroys jobs produce inconclusive findings. The present study seeks to examine the impact of international trade policies on unemployment for 10 Arab countries over the period of 1991–2012 using a theoretical framework incorporating trade and search-generated unemployment. In addition to the trade policy measurements, the present study controls for variables that represent macroeconomic policies; demographic change (population); governance, institutional quality and labour market regulation. Using different proxies for trade policies, the results of the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) show that trade liberalization policies have a positive impact on unemployment in the long run, but a negative impact in the short run. The finding supports contemporary calls to participate in international trade to facilitate job creation. However, further studies are required to identify the specific channels through which trade policies can affect unemployment in the Arab region.

Kecekapan teknik institusi pendidikan tinggi swasta di Malaysia

Artikel ini bertujuan untuk mengukur kecekapan teknik bagi sektor perkhidmatan pendidikan tinggi swasta (sektor PPTS) di Malaysia bagi tahun 2010. Sektor itu dijangkakan mampu untuk menyumbang sehingga RM 1.3 bilion setahun kepada Pendapatan Negara Kasar (PNK) dari tahun 2010 hingga 2020 melalui dasar liberalisasi pendidikan swasta. Institusi Pendidikan Tinggi Swasta (IPTS) di Malaysia merupakan sub sektor terpenting dalam sektor PPTS yang juga merupakan salah satu sektor dalam Bidang Keberhasilan Ekonomi Negara (NKEA). Namun, tidak terdapat sebarang petunjuk ekonomi mahupun prestasi terkini sektor PPTS sehingga kini. Maka, artikel ini akan mengenal pasti tahap kecekapan teknik IPTS menggunakan data keratan rentas 126 buah IPTS berdasarkan bancian tahun 2011 yang diperoleh daripada Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia. Tahap kecekapan teknik diukur menggunakan Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) bukan parametrik yang berorientasikan output dengan nilai ditambah sebagai output manakala bilangan pekerja dengan pendidikan tertiari, menengah dan rendah, bilangan pekerja pengurusan, profesional dan eksekutif, bilangan pekerja teknikal dan penyeliaan, bilangan pekerja perkeranian dan berkaitan, bilangan pekerja pekerjaan am, bilangan pelajar dan jumlah aset sebagai input. Selain itu, tahap kecekapan teknik dianalisis dengan lebih lanjut menggunakan jadual silang dan ujian chi-square dengan saiz operasi dan intensiti modal IPTS. Kajian mendapati lebih banyak IPTS bersaiz sederhana dan besar serta IPTS yang lebih berintensifkan modal beroperasi pada tahap kecekapan teknik yang lebih tinggi berbanding IPTS bersaiz kecil dan IPTS yang kurang berintensifkan modal. Kesimpulannya, IPTS di Malaysia adalah beroperasi secara kurang cekap bagi tahun 2010. Implikasi dasar adalah IPTS perlu meningkatkan keupayaan pengeluaran, mengurangkan kos dan meningkatkan kualiti perkhidmatan, seterusnya meningkatkan penjanaan pendapatan sektor PPTS.

Economic growth and human development - does gender matter?

Several studies examine the UNDPs 1996 hypothesis regarding the existence of a two-way relationship between economic growth and human development. This implies that improving human development could enhance economic growth opportunities and vice versa. Using Sudan time series data (1960-2012), the present study seeks to examine whether this hypothesis may vary between males and females. The empirical findings of the present study suggest that such relationships may vary between gender and over time. More specifically, whilst education and training improves the capability of females to contribute positively and significantly to a countrys economic growth in the long run, improving male health reduce and significantly affects economic growth. In addition, household expenditure tends towards improving the human development of females compared to males over time. The results suggest that improving gender equality in Sudan, in addition to human development generally, also constitutes a means of attaining better economic performance, particularly in the long run.