Atif Awad

The impact of economic globalisation on unemployment: The Malaysian experience

ABSTRACT Malaysia plans to emerge as one of the high-income economies by 2020 through the Economic Transformation Programme. A key component of this programme is to adopt more trade liberalisation policies that can generate a variety of economic activities, particularly more jobs. Although the integration with the world market bears the promise of prosperity for the developing and transitional economies, such integration may also adversely affect such economies. Preceding studies regarding labour market and international trade policies are still inconclusive and raise questions that require further examination; particularly in terms of whether exposure to the external sector can create or destroy jobs. The present study evaluates how Malaysia labour market has responded to the economic globalisation of the country. The study focuses on the long-run impact of economic globalisation on unemployment within the period between 1980 and 2014. The study uses autoregressive distributive lags method to examine the pattern of the relationship. The results show that economic globalisation have significant and positive impact on reducing unemployment in Malaysia in the long run. These findings indicate that policy-makers in Malaysia should facilitate the economy globalisation to maintain the current low level of unemployment rate.

Economic growth and human development – what do time series data say for Sudan?

This study examines United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)s 1996 hypothesis regarding the existence of a two-way relationship between economic growth (EG) and human development (HD) using Sudanese time series data (1960–2012). The hypothesis suggests that there is a feedback effect between HD and EG. This implies that improving HD could enhance EG opportunities and vice versa. In this study, first we analyse the long-run cointegration relationships using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Then, to identify the short-run dynamic relationship between HD and EG, we employ the error correction model derived from the ARDL. The results show that in the long run, HD is positively related to EG through education and employment performance channels. At the same time, EG could positively improve the opportunities for the education of households and involvement in economic activities. The short-run dynamic estimation confirms that there is a bidirectional relationship between EG and HD. The overall findings support UNDPs 1996 hypothesis concerning the existence of a two-way relationship between EG and HD. The results also confirm that improving humanity in Sudan promotes not only HD but also overall economic development.

Africa’s economic regionalism: is there any other obstacle?

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to extend the gravity model to examine the role of infrastructure (including human capital (HC)), macroeconomic policies, the institutional quality and the colonial regimes on intra-African trade during the period 1990-2013. The results show that the basic gravity variables have substantial influence on the bilateral trade in the continent. Most interestingly, whilst internal conflicts appear to have harmful and significant impacts on the flow of such trade, HC, the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) and the British colonial regime appear as encouraging factors. The results of the study imply that devoting more resources to HC and creating a favourable investment environment should come as a top priority in current efforts to facilitate Africa’s economic regionalism. Design/methodology/approach - The paper employs Tobit technique on a semi-log extended form for the gravity model. Findings - The results show that the basic gravity variables have substantial influence on the bilateral trade in the continent. Most interestingly, whilst internal conflicts appear to have harmful and significant impacts on the flow of such trade; HC, the flow of FDI and the British colonial regime come out as encouraging factors. Originality/value - The results provided can be useful to design policies oriented to facilities intra-trade between African economies. So far, this is the first study that incorporates the soft type of infrastructures, colonization and institutional quality in the investigation of the factors that can influence intra-Africa trade.

Factors Affecting Fertility-New Evidence from Malaysia

Abstract This research paper investigates long and short term determinants of fertility rates in Malaysia based on basic macroeconomic variables for the period 1980-2014 using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The study reveals that over a long term period, all the selected variables (GDP, infant mortality rate, females’ education and employment) have had significant and negative impact on total fertility rates. Whilst during the short term period, only the infant mortality rate has had a positive impact. Since population growth is partly determined by fertility rates, efforts to increase population in Malaysia should consider factors that affect those rates.

Economic growth and human development - does gender matter?

Several studies examine the UNDPs 1996 hypothesis regarding the existence of a two-way relationship between economic growth and human development. This implies that improving human development could enhance economic growth opportunities and vice versa. Using Sudan time series data (1960-2012), the present study seeks to examine whether this hypothesis may vary between males and females. The empirical findings of the present study suggest that such relationships may vary between gender and over time. More specifically, whilst education and training improves the capability of females to contribute positively and significantly to a countrys economic growth in the long run, improving male health reduce and significantly affects economic growth. In addition, household expenditure tends towards improving the human development of females compared to males over time. The results suggest that improving gender equality in Sudan, in addition to human development generally, also constitutes a means of attaining better economic performance, particularly in the long run.