Izlin Ismail

Mutual funds and market performance: New evidence from ASEAN markets

ABSTRACT The contemporaneous growth in ASEAN financial markets over the last two decades raises empirical questions regarding the role of institutional investors in financial market performance. Our study examines the dynamic relationship of aggregate mutual fund flows with market performance variables, i.e. stock market returns and volatility in ASEAN financial markets. Findings suggest that equity and balanced flows have a positive (negative) relationship with market returns (volatility), whereas bond and money market flows have a negative (positive) linkage with market returns (volatility). Furthermore, equity and balanced mutual funds contribute towards reducing market volatility. In addition, mutual funds respond concurrently to risk-related information as compared to returns-related information in the stock market. We also identify that risky securities have a stronger relationship with the market variables than less risky securities do. Moreover, investors direct flows away from equity-based funds to fixed income-type funds in times of high market risk.

Dynamics between currency and equity in Chinese markets

Purpose – This study aims to examine the dynamics between exchange rate and equities contextualizing the current liberal currency regime in China. This investigation also extends the analysis to explore the potential important factors influencing the interactions between these two markets. After exchange rate reforms, currency issue has emerged as a new dimension in portfolio decisions and diversification strategies in Chinese equity markets. Design/methodology/approach – This research uses the dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model proposed by Engle (2002) to explore the dynamic interactions between the currency and stock markets. Further, the paper uses regression analysis to explore the explanatory channels of the correlation. The sample comprises 1,265 listed companies over the period 2005-2012 with daily, weekly and monthly observations. To make analysis robust, the study also considers different exchange rates and equities belonging to differe...

Dynamics of exchange rate determination and currency order flow in the Thailand foreign exchange market: An empirical analysis

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present the essential role that currency order flow plays in the foreign exchange markets of emerging economies in the determination of their currencies in the short and the long-run against major currencies of the world, which cannot be over emphasized, most especially against the US dollar. Insomuch that, if some of these emerging economies can be successfully transmitted into full development, it would be a good model for other emerging economies and the world at large. Design/methodology/approach A hybrid model (portfolio shift model) proposed by Evans and Lyons (2002a, 2002b) is extended to analyze a data set of every quarter of an hour currency order flow and currency exchange rate fluctuations of Thai Baht (THB) against the US

Exchange-rate variability and industry trade flows between Malaysia and Japan

for the period of six years (January 2010 to December 2015). To reflect the pressure of currency excess demand, the authors construct a measure of currency order flow in the Thailand currency exchange market. Vector autoregression model is applied to estimate the effectual role of currency order flow in the determination of exchange rate for the THB against the US

Currency Order Flow and Exchange Rate Determination: Empirical Evidence from the Malaysian Foreign Exchange Market

. Findings Currency order flow indeed accounted for a sizeable and significant portion of the fluctuations in the THB and the US

Factors affecting the financing cost of microfinance institutions: panel evidence

exchange rate. Originality/value Insomuch that, the results show that currency order flow has significant explanatory power in the emerging markets economy to capture the THB exchange rate variability, and it then brings to the attention of the Thailand Monetary Authority the importance that should be attached to the market microstructure.

Equity LEAPS Calls vs. Stocks: An Empirical Study for Long-Term Speculation

This research investigates the exchange-rate risk sensitivity of Malaysian bilateral trade flows with its important trading partner, Japan. To this end, bounds testing approach to co-integration is applied using industry level data over the monthly period 2000–2013. Findings suggest that above the one-third of the total co-integrated export (43.86%) and import (34.54%), industries experiences the ringgit/yen variability effect in the short run. However, this effect sustains in relatively less number of export (14.03%) and import (32.73%) industries in the long run. It is interesting to note that exchange-rate risk boosts trade flows in the majority of these affected industries.

Mutual funds and stock market volatility: An empirical analysis of Asian emerging markets

This article presents empirical test results of Malaysian foreign exchange market microstructure assessment of exchange rate dynamics. We apply vector autoregressive (VAR) model to estimate the influential role of currency order flow in the determination of the currency exchange rate for the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) against the US dollar (USD). We investigate whether currency order flow captures the movements of exchange rate of MYR against USD, and how the long-term and short-term components impact the relative estimation of MYR in the international market. We, construct a measure of order flow in the Malaysian foreign exchange market to reflect the pressure of currency excess demand. Our focus is on the cumulative currency order flow and the exchange rate relationship of MYR and USD. A hybrid model of order flow and exchange rate dynamics proposed by Evans and Lyons (2002a) is applied to the Malaysian foreign exchange market (MYR/USD) to analyse a dataset of every 15-minute currency order flow and exchange rate movements from January 2010 to December 2015. Our dataset has unique features in terms of the quality of the data, extensive period and precise high frequency. Our results show that currency order flow explains an important portion of the movements in the MYR–USD exchange rate.

Does exchange-rate uncertainty matter in the Malaysia–E.U. bilateral trade? An industry level investigation

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) aim to minimize their operating costs as a way to provide affordable services to the poor and attain financial sustainability for long-term economic viability. To contribute to existing literature, this paper examines the factors affecting the financing cost of MFIs. The study features a balanced panel data of 169 MFIs from Bangladesh’s microfinance industry, covering the period from 2009 to 2014. Based on the empirical results, internal sources of funds, such as clients’ savings and cumulative surplus, have a significant negative effect on the financing cost of MFIs. On the other hand, certain external sources of funds, notably donations and funds from government apex bodies, serve to reduce financing cost, which reinforces the efficiency and effectiveness of external support to the microfinance industry. This study suggests that MFIs should rely on internally generated funds and reduce dependency on commercial debt.

Examining the uncovered equity parity in the emerging financial markets

Long-Term Equity Anticipation Security or LEAPS is a call option introduced as a more conservative security that can replicate a common stock position. This study’s objective is to examine the effect of applying the strategy of “Buying In-the-Money LEAPS Calls vs. Purchasing Stocks” proposed by CBOE on the performance of traders in terms of risk and return trade-off and the risk-adjusted performance in practice, using a sample of 54 common stocks listed on NYSE and NASDAQ and 54 LEAPS calls on the same underlying stocks listed on CBOE during 2008-2010. The results indicate that LEAPS calls are not a preferred financial instrument to replace common stocks for risk-averse traders. When the stock market experiences a progressive downturn trend, the portfolios of LEAPS calls provide much higher negative returns, significant loss and poor performance as well as higher levels of volatility relative to the portfolios of common stocks. The results of this study also suggest that risk-seeking traders, who can tolerate the higher level of risk in compensation for higher returns, choose the portfolio of LEAPS calls with high Book-To-Market (BTM) ratio assets. This portfolio is less volatile relative to the portfolio of LEAPS with low BTM ratio and provides higher rates of return in comparison to the portfolios of common stocks in favorable market conditions.