J. A. Abreu

9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings

Understanding the temporal variation of cosmic radiation and solar activity during the Holocene is essential for studies of the solar-terrestrial relationship. Cosmic-ray produced radionuclides, such as 10Be and 14C which are stored in polar ice cores and tree rings, offer the unique opportunity to reconstruct the history of cosmic radiation and solar activity over many millennia. Although records from different archives basically agree, they also show some deviations during certain periods. So far most reconstructions were based on only one single radionuclide record, which makes detection and correction of these deviations impossible. Here we combine different 10Be ice core records from Greenland and Antarctica with the global 14C tree ring record using principal component analysis. This approach is only possible due to a new high-resolution 10Be record from Dronning Maud Land obtained within the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica in Antarctica. The new cosmic radiation record enables us to derive total solar irradiance, which is then used as a proxy of solar activity to identify the solar imprint in an Asian climate record. Though generally the agreement between solar forcing and Asian climate is good, there are also periods without any coherence, pointing to other forcings like volcanoes and greenhouse gases and their corresponding feedbacks. The newly derived records have the potential to improve our understanding of the solar dynamics and to quantify the solar influence on climate.

A 600‐year annual 10Be record from the NGRIP ice core, Greenland

Understanding the link between the Sun and climate is vital in the current incidence of global climate change, and 10Be in natural archives constitutes an excellent tracer for this purpose. As cosmic rays enter the atmosphere, cosmogenic isotopes like 10Be and 14C are formed. Variations in solar activity modulate the amount of incoming cosmic rays, and thereby cosmogenic isotope production. Atmospherically produced 10Be enters natural archives such as sediments and glaciers by wet and dry deposition within about a year of production. 10Be from natural archives therefore provides information on past solar activity, and because these archives also contain climate information, solar activity and climate can be linked. One remaining question is to what degree 10Be in natural archives reflects production, and to what extent the local and regional environment overprints the production signal. To explore this, 10Be was measured at annual resolution over the last 600 years in a Greenland ice core. Measurement potentials for these samples benefited from the development of a new laboratory method of co-precipitating 10Be with niobium. To diversify geographic location and archive media type, a pioneer study of measuring 10Be with annual resolution in varved lake sediments from Finland was conducted, with samples from the entire 20th century. Pathways of 10Be into lake sediments are more complex than into glacial ice, inferring that contemporary atmospheric conditions may not be recorded. Here, it is shown for the first time that tracing the 11-year solar cycle through lake sediment 10Be variations is possible. Results also show that on an annual basis, 10Be deposition in ice and sediment archives is affected by local environmental conditions. On a slightly longer timescale, however, diverse 10Be records exhibit similar trends and a negative correlation with solar activity. Cyclic variability of 10Be deposition persisted throughout past grand solar minima, when little or no sunspot activity was recorded. 10Be levels indicate that although solar activity has been high during the 20th century, levels are not unprecedented in the investigated 600 years. Aerosol 10Be/7Be values indicate possible influence of stratosphere-troposphere exchange on isotope abundance and the production signal.

For how long will the current grand maximum of solar activity persist

[1] Understanding the Sun’s magnetic activity is important because of its impact on the Earth’s environment. The sunspot record since 1610 shows irregular 11-year cycles of activity; they are modulated on longer timescales and were interrupted by the Maunder minimum in the 17th century. Future behavior cannot easily be predicted – even in the short-term. Recent activity has been abnormally high for at least 8 cycles: is this grand maximum likely to terminate soon or even to be followed by another (Maunder-like) grand minimum? To answer these questions we use, as a measure of the Sun’s open magnetic field, a composite record of the solar modulation function F, reconstructed principally from the proxy record of cosmogenic 10 Be abundances in the GRIP icecore from Greenland. This F record extends back for almost 10,000 years, showing many grand maxima and grand minima (defined as intervals when F is within the top or bottom 20% of a Gaussian distribution). We carry out a statistical analysis of this record and calculate the life expectancy of the current grand maximum. We find that it is only expected to last for a further 15–36 years, with the more reliable methods yielding shorter expectancies, and we therefore predict a decline in solar activity within the next two or three cycles. We are not able, however, to predict the level of the ensuing minimum. Citation: Abreu, J. A., J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, S. M. Tobias, and N. O. Weiss (2008), For how long will the current grand maximum of solar activity persist?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20109, doi:10.1029/2008GL035442.

Sun and planets from a climate point of view

The Sun plays a dominant role as the gravity centre and the energy source of a planetary system. A simple estimate shows that it is mainly the distance from the Sun that determines the climate of a planet. The solar electromagnetic radiation received by a, planet is very unevenly distributed on the dayside of the planet. The climate tries to equilibrate the system by transporting energy through the atmosphere and the oceans provided they exist. These quasi steady state conditions are continuously disturbed by a, variety of processes and effects. Potential causes of disturbance on the Sun are the energy generation in the core, the energy transport trough the convection zone, and the energy emission from the photosphere. Well understood are the effects of the orbital parameters responsible for the total amount, of solar power received by a planet and its relative distribution on the planets surface. On a planet, many factors determine how much of the arriving energy enters the climate system and how it is distributed and ultimately reemitted back into space. On Earth, there is growing evidence that in the past solar variability played a significant role in climate change.