J. A. Caicedo

Rocket‐triggered lightning propagation paths relative to preceding natural lightning activity and inferred cloud charge

Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) data are used to compare the propagation paths of seven rocket-triggered lightning flashes to the inferred charge structure of the thunderstorms in which they were triggered. This is the first LMA study of Florida thunderstorm charge structure. Three sequentially (within 16 min) triggered lightning flashes, whose initial stages were the subject of Hill et al. (2013), are reexamined by comparing the complete flashes to the preceding natural lightning to demonstrate that the three rocket-triggered flashes propagated through an inferred negative charge region that decreased from about 6.8 to about 4.4 km altitude as the thunderstorm dissipated. Two other flashes were also sequentially triggered (within 9 min) in a thunderstorm that contained a convectively intense region ahead of a stratiform region, with similar observed results. Finally, two unique cases of triggered lightning flashes are presented. In the first case, the in-cloud portion of the triggered lightning flash, after ascending to and turning horizontal at 5.3 km altitude, just above the 0°C level, was observed to very clearly resemble the geometry of the in-cloud portion of the preceding natural lightning discharges. In the second case, a flash was triggered relatively early in the storms lifecycle that did not turn horizontal near the 0°C level, as is usually the case for triggered lightning in dissipating storms, but ascended to nearly 7.5 km altitude before exhibiting extensive horizontal branching.

Evaluation of ENTLN Performance Characteristics Based on the Ground Truth Natural and Rocket‐Triggered Lightning Data Acquired in Florida

The performance characteristics of the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) were evaluated by using as ground-truth natural cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data acquired at the Lightning Observatory in Gainesville (LOG) and rocket-triggered lightning data obtained at Camp Blanding (CB), Florida, in 2014 and 2015. Two ENTLN processors (data processing algorithms) were evaluated. The old processor (P2014) was put into use in June 2014 and the new one (P2015) has been operational since August 2015. Based on the natural-CG-lightning dataset (219 flashes containing 608 strokes), the flash detection efficiency (DE), flash classification accuracy (CA), stroke DE, and stroke CA for the new processor were found to be 99%, 97%, 96%, and 91%, respectively, and the corresponding values for the old processor were 99%, 91%, 97%, and 68%. The stroke DE and stroke CA for first strokes are higher than those for subsequent strokes. Based on the rocket-triggered lightning dataset (36 CG flashes containing 175 strokes), the flash DE, flash CA, stroke DE, and stroke CA for the new processor were found to be 100%, 97%, 97%, and 86%, respectively, while the corresponding values for the old processor were 100%, 92%, 97%, and 42%. The median values of location error and absolute peak current estimation error were 215 m and 15% for the new processor, and 205 m and 15% for the old processor. For both natural and triggered CG lightning, strokes with higher peak currents were more likely to be both detected and correctly classified by the ENTLN.

Do cosmic ray air showers initiate lightning? : A statistical analysis of cosmic ray air showers and lightning mapping array data

It has been argued in the technical literature, and widely reported in the popular press, that cosmic ray air showers (CRASs) can initiate lightning via a mechanism known as relativistic runaway electron avalanche (RREA), where large numbers of high energy and low energy electrons can, somehow, cause the local atmosphere in a thundercloud to transition to a conducting state. In response to this claim, other researchers have published simulations showing that the electron density produced by RREA is far too small to be able to affect the conductivity in the cloud sufficiently to initiate lightning. In this paper, we compare 74 days of cosmic ray air shower data collected in north central Florida during 2013, 2014, and 2015, the recorded CRASs having primary energies on the order of 1016 eV to 1018 eV and zenith angles less than 38 degrees, with Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) data, and we show that there is no evidence that the detected cosmic ray air showers initiated lightning. Furthermore, we show that the average probability of any of our detected cosmic ray air showers to initiate a lightning flash can be no more than 5 percent. If all lightning flashes were initiated by cosmic ray air showers, then about 1.6 percent of detected CRASs would initiate lightning, therefore we do not have enough data to exclude the possibility that lightning flashes could be initiated by cosmic ray air showers.