J. C. M. Witteman

Ankle brachial index combined with Framingham risk score to predict cardiovascular events and mortality - A meta-analysis

CONTEXT Prediction models to identify healthy individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease have limited accuracy. A low ankle brachial index (ABI) is an indicator of atherosclerosis and has the potential to improve prediction. OBJECTIVE To determine if the ABI provides information on the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality independently of the Framingham risk score (FRS) and can improve risk prediction. DATA SOURCES Relevant studies were identified. A search of MEDLINE (1950 to February 2008) and EMBASE (1980 to February 2008) was conducted using common text words for the term ankle brachial index combined with text words and Medical Subject Headings to capture prospective cohort designs. Review of reference lists and conference proceedings, and correspondence with experts was conducted to identify additional published and unpublished studies. STUDY SELECTION Studies were included if participants were derived from a general population, ABI was measured at baseline, and individuals were followed up to detect total and cardiovascular mortality. DATA EXTRACTION Prespecified data on individuals in each selected study were extracted into a combined data set and an individual participant data meta-analysis was conducted on individuals who had no previous history of coronary heart disease. RESULTS Sixteen population cohort studies fulfilling the inclusion criteria were included. During 480,325 person-years of follow-up of 24,955 men and 23,339 women, the risk of death by ABI had a reverse J-shaped distribution with a normal (low risk) ABI of 1.11 to 1.40. The 10-year cardiovascular mortality in men with a low ABI (< or = 0.90) was 18.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.3%-24.1%) and with normal ABI (1.11-1.40) was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.2%-5.7%) (hazard ratio [HR], 4.2; 95% CI, 3.3-5.4). Corresponding mortalities in women were 12.6% (95% CI, 6.2%-19.0%) and 4.1% (95% CI, 2.2%-6.1%) (HR, 3.5; 95% CI, 2.4-5.1). The HRs remained elevated after adjusting for FRS (2.9 [95% CI, 2.3-3.7] for men vs 3.0 [95% CI, 2.0-4.4] for women). A low ABI (< or = 0.90) was associated with approximately twice the 10-year total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and major coronary event rate compared with the overall rate in each FRS category. Inclusion of the ABI in cardiovascular risk stratification using the FRS would result in reclassification of the risk category and modification of treatment recommendations in approximately 19% of men and 36% of women. CONCLUSION Measurement of the ABI may improve the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction beyond the FRS.

Smoking and risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease in a population-based cohort study: the Rotterdam Study

BACKGROUND Previous studies suggested a protective effect of smoking on Alzheimers disease, but most were case-control studies based on prevalent cases. The findings of prospective studies on the association between smoking and the risk of dementia are inconclusive. METHODS We did a population-based follow-up study of elderly people who were initially free of dementia. 6870 people aged 55 years and older agreed to take part. Smoking history was taken at baseline and participants were classified as never smokers, former smokers, and current smokers. During follow-up, we recorded all incident cases of dementia. We used never smokers as the reference category to calculate relative risks of dementia and Alzheimers disease by Cox proportional hazards regression, after adjustment for age, sex, education, and alcohol intake. We also examined modification of risk by age, sex, and the apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype. FINDINGS During mean follow-up of 2.1 (range 1.5-3.4) years, 146 incident cases of dementia were detected, of which 105 were Alzheimers disease. Compared with never smokers, smokers had an increased risk of dementia (relative risk 2.2 [95% CI 1.3-3.6]) and Alzheimers disease (2.3 [1.3-4.1]). Smoking was a strong risk factor for Alzheimers disease in individuals without the APOEepsilon4 allele (4.6 [1.5-14.2]), but had no effect in participants with this allele (0.6 [0.1-4.8]). INTERPRETATION Smoking was associated with a doubling of the risk of dementia and Alzheimers disease. Our finding that carriers of the APOEepsilon4 had no increased risk of dementia suggests an interaction between smoking and the APOEepsilon4 genotype in the aetiology of Alzheimers disease.

Diet and risk of dementia: Does fat matter?: The Rotterdam Study

Objective: To examine whether high intake of total fat, saturated fatty acids (saturated fat), trans fatty acids (trans fat), and cholesterol and low intake of monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA), polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), n-6 PUFA, and n-3 PUFA are associated with increased risk of dementia and its subtypes. Method: Data from the Rotterdam Study, a prospective cohort study among elderly, were used. At baseline (1990 to 1993), 5,395 subjects had normal cognition, were noninstitutionalized, and underwent complete dietary assessment by a semiquantitative food-frequency questionnaire. The cohort was continuously monitored for incident dementia, and re-examinations were performed in 1993 to 1994 and 1997 to 1999. The association between fat intake and incident dementia was examined by Cox’s proportional hazards models. Results: After a mean follow-up of 6.0 years, 197 subjects developed dementia (146 AD, 29 vascular dementia). High intake of total, saturated, trans fat, and cholesterol and low intake of MUFA, PUFA, n-6 PUFA, and n-3 PUFA were not associated with increased risk of dementia or its subtypes. Rate ratios of dementia per standard deviation increase in intake were for total fat 0.93 (95% CI 0.81 to 1.07), for saturated fat 0.91 (95% CI 0.79 to 1.05), for trans fat 0.90 (95% CI 0.77 to 1.06), for cholesterol 0.93 (95% CI 0.80 to 1.08), for MUFA 0.96 (95% CI 0.84 to 1.10), for PUFA 1.05 (95% CI 0.80 to 1.38), for n-6 PUFA 1.03 (95% CI 0.77 to 1.36), and for n-3 PUFA 1.07 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.22). Conclusion: High intake of total, saturated, and trans fat and cholesterol and low intake of MUFA, PUFA, n-6 PUFA, and n-3 PUFA were not associated with increased risk of dementia or its subtypes.

Increased risk of atherosclerosis in women after the menopause.

An increase in the incidence of cardiovascular disease has generally been observed in postmenopausal women, but there have been few studies of the association between menopausal state and atherosclerosis. In this study 294 premenopausal and 319 postmenopausal women aged 45 to 55 were examined radiographically for calcified deposits in the abdominal aorta, which have been shown to represent intimal atherosclerosis. Aortic atherosclerosis was present in eight (3%) of the premenopausal women and in 38 (12%) of the postmenopausal women. After adjustments for age and other indicators of cardiovascular risk women with a natural menopause had a 3.4 times greater risk of atherosclerosis than premenopausal women (95% confidence interval 1.2 to 9.7; p less than 0.05); women who had had a bilateral oophorectomy had a 5.5 times greater risk (1.9 to 15.8; p less than 0.005). No excess risk of atherosclerosis was observed among women who had had a hysterectomy without removal of both ovaries. These results suggest that when oestrogen production stops, either naturally or after surgery, the risk of atherosclerosis is increased.

J-shaped relation between change in diastolic blood pressure and progression of aortic atherosclerosis

The J-shaped relation between diastolic blood pressure and mortality from coronary heart disease continues to provoke controversy. We examined the association between diastolic blood pressure and progression of aortic atherosclerosis in a population-based cohort of 855 women, aged 45-64 years at baseline. The women were examined radiographically for calcified deposits in the abdominal aorta, which have been shown to reflect intimal atherosclerosis. After 9 years of follow-up, slight progression of atherosclerosis was noted in 19% of women and substantial progression in 16%. The age-adjusted relative risk of substantial atherosclerotic progression in women with a decrease in diastolic pressure of 10 mm Hg or more was 2.5 (95% CI 1.3-5.6), compared with the reference group of women who had a smaller decrease or no change. The excess risk in this group was confined to women whose increase in pulse pressure was above the median (3.9 [1.5-9.9] vs 1.1 [0.3-4.2] in women with an increase in pulse pressure below the median). The relative risks for women with rises in diastolic pressure of 1-9 mm Hg and 10 mm Hg or more were 2.2 (1.1-4.3) and 3.5 (1.6-8.0), respectively. These findings suggest that a decline in diastolic blood pressure indicates vessel wall stiffening associated with atherosclerotic progression. They support the hypothesis that in low-risk subjects progression of atherosclerosis may be accompanied by a decrease in diastolic blood pressure rather than the opposing idea that low diastolic blood pressure precipitates the occurrence of atherosclerotic events.

Insulin metabolism and the risk of Alzheimer disease: the Rotterdam Study.

Objective: Diabetes mellitus has been associated with an increased risk of Alzheimer disease (AD), but how it exerts its effect remains controversial. Possible pathophysiologic mechanisms are glucose toxicity and a direct effect of insulin on amyloid metabolism. Most studies had short follow-up, and longer-term effects of diabetes on AD risk are unknown. We investigated whether fasting glucose and insulin levels and insulin resistance are associated with the risk of AD and whether this risk is constant over time. Methods: The study was based on 3,139 participants of the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study. All subjects were free from dementia, did not have a history of diabetes, and had fasting levels of glucose and insulin measured at baseline. Insulin resistance was estimated with the homeostasis model assessment. We investigated how fasting glucose, insulin, and insulin resistance are related to the risk of AD in 3 different strata according to time-to-event, using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: During follow-up, 211 participants developed AD, 71 of them within 3 years of baseline. Levels of insulin and insulin resistance were associated with a higher risk of AD within 3 years of baseline. After 3 years, the risk was no longer increased. Glucose was not associated with a higher risk of AD. There was no interaction of APOE ϵ4 carriership and insulin metabolism on the risk of AD. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that insulin metabolism influences the clinical manifestation of AD only within 3 years.

Dietary fatty acids and the risk of Parkinson disease: The Rotterdam Study

Background: Unsaturated fatty acids are important constituents of neuronal cell membranes and have neuroprotective, antioxidant, and anti-inflammatory properties. Objective: To determine if a high intake of unsaturated fatty acids might be associated with a lower risk of Parkinson disease (PD). Methods: In the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort study of people ages ≥55, the association between intake of unsaturated fatty acids and the risk of incident PD was evaluated among 5,289 subjects who were free of dementia and parkinsonism and underwent complete dietary assessment at baseline. PD was assessed through repeated in-person examination, and the cohort was continuously monitored by computer linkage to medical records. The data were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results: After a mean follow-up of 6.0 years, 51 participants with incident PD were identified. Intakes of total fat, monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs), and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) were significantly associated with a lower risk of PD, with an adjusted hazard ratio per SD increase of energy-adjusted intake of 0.69 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.91) for total fat, of 0.68 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.94) for MUFAs, and 0.66 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.96) for PUFAs. No associations were found for dietary saturated fat, cholesterol, or trans-fat. Conclusion: These findings suggest that high intake of unsaturated fatty acids might protect against Parkinson disease.

Vitamin K Status and Bone Mass in Women With and Without Aortic Atherosclerosis: A Population-Based Study

Abstract. Gammacarboxyglutamate (Gla) is an uncommon amino acid formed by vitamin K action. Increasing evidence indicates that Gla-proteins are involved in the regulation of calcification processes in both bone tissue and atherosclerotic vessel wall. In a population-based study we have previously shown that in a group of 113 postmenopausal women the presence of abdominal aortic calcifications is associated with a reduced vitamin K status. In the present study we investigated whether this reduced vitamin K status was also associated with differences in bone mass or circulating calciotropic hormone levels. Serum immunoreactive osteocalcin with low affinity for hydroxyapatite (irOCfree) was used as a marker for vitamin K status. After correction for age it was found that women with atherosclerotic calcifications had a 7% lower bone mass as measured by metacarpal radiogrammetry (mean difference: 3.2 mm2, 95% CI: −0.2–6.5, P= 0.06). No differences between both groups of women were observed for serum intact parathyroid hormone (PTH) and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels. In the atherosclerotic women (n = 34), markers for vitamin K status were inversely associated with bone mass (r =−0.47, P= 0.013), whereas no such association was found in the nonatherosclerotic women (n = 79). It is concluded that the atherosclerotic women in this study may be at higher risk for osteoporotic fractures as evidenced by their lower bone mass and higher serum irOCfree levels. The finding that in atherosclerotic women vitamin K status is associated with bone mass supports our hypothesis that vitamin K status affects the mineralization processes in both bone and in atherosclerotic plaques.

Carotid atherosclerosis and cerebral white matter lesions in a population based magnetic resonance imaging study

Abstract Cerebral white matter lesions are frequently observed on magnetic resonance imaging of elderly, nondemented persons. There is evidence that white matter lesions are involved in the pathophysiology of cognitive decline and dementia. White matter lesions can be divided into those in the periventricular and those in the subcortical region. Pathological and epidemiological studies suggest that atherosclerosis is involved in the pathogenesis of these lesions. Our study reports on the association between atherosclerosis in the carotid arteries and white matter lesions in a population-based study among 1077 elderly subjects. We randomly sampled 1077 subjects aged between 60–90 years from two prospective population-based studies. All subjects underwent ultrasonography of the carotid artery. In addition, 1.5 T magnetic resonance imaging was performed; white matter lesions in the subcortical and periventricular regions were rated separately. With increasing number of plaques in the carotid artery the severity of periventricular white matter lesions increased (Ptrend = 0.03), but not the severity of subcortical white matter lesions (Ptrend = 0.19). In addition, an increase in intima media thickness was borderline significantly associated with an increased severity of periventricular white matter lesions (Ptrend = 0.09), but not of subcortical white matter lesions (Ptrend = 0.68). These findings suggest that partly dissimilar pathogenetic mechanisms are involved in the etiology of periventricular and subcortical white matter lesions.

Heritability of the Function and Structure of the Arterial Wall: Findings of the Erasmus Rucphen Family (ERF) Study

Background and Purpose— Using 930 individuals connected in a single pedigree from an isolated population, participants of the Erasmus Rucphen Family (ERF) study, we investigated the heritability of carotid–femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV), carotid intima media thickness (IMT), and carotid plaque score. Methods— PWV was measured between the carotid and femoral arteries as an indicator of aortic stiffness. Common carotid IMT and plaque score, quantifying alterations in arterial wall structure, were measured by ultrasonography. Results— All 3 traits were significantly associated with classic cardiovascular risk factors. Age- and gender-adjusted heritability estimates were 0.36 for PWV, 0.41 for carotid IMT, and 0.28 for plaque score. After adjustment for appropriate risk factors, the heritabilities were 0.26, 0.35, and 0.21 for PWV, IMT, and plaque score, respectively. All heritability estimates were statistically significant (P<0.001). Taking into account different proportions of variance associated with covariates for each trait, genetic factors explained ≈12% of the total variability for each of the phenotypes. Conclusions— To our knowledge, this is the first report on the heritability of PWV. The heritability estimates of IMT and plaque score were similar to those in previous reports. We conclude that genetic factors significantly contribute to arterial structure and function in this isolated population, presenting the opportunity to locate susceptibility genes related to cardiovascular disorders.