J. K. Jolliff

Red tides in the Gulf of Mexico: Where, when, and why?

[1] Independent data from the Gulf of Mexico are used to develop and test the hypothesis that the same sequence of physical and ecological events each year allows the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis to become dominant. A phosphorus-rich nutrient supply initiates phytoplankton succession, once deposition events of Saharan iron-rich dust allow Trichodesmium blooms to utilize ubiquitous dissolved nitrogen gas within otherwise nitrogen-poor sea water. They and the co-occurring K. brevis are positioned within the bottom Ekman layers, as a consequence of their similar diel vertical migration patterns on the middle shelf. Upon onshore upwelling of these near-bottom seed populations to CDOM-rich surface waters of coastal regions, light-inhibition of the small red tide of ~1 ug chl l(-1) of ichthytoxic K. brevis is alleviated. Thence, dead fish serve as a supplementary nutrient source, yielding large, self-shaded red tides of ~10 ug chl l(-1). The source of phosphorus is mainly of fossil origin off west Florida, where past nutrient additions from the eutrophied Lake Okeechobee had minimal impact. In contrast, the P-sources are of mainly anthropogenic origin off Texas, since both the nutrient loadings of Mississippi River and the spatial extent of the downstream red tides have increased over the last 100 years. During the past century and particularly within the last decade, previously cryptic Karenia spp. have caused toxic red tides in similar coastal habitats of other western boundary currents off Japan, China, New Zealand, Australia, and South Africa, downstream of the Gobi, Simpson, Great Western, and Kalahari Deserts, in a global response to both desertification and eutrophication.

Skill assessment for coupled biological/physical models of marine systems

Coupled biological/physical models of marine systems serve many purposes including the synthesis of information, hypothesis generation, and as a tool for numerical experimentation. However, marine system models are increasingly used for prediction to support high-stakes decision-making. In such applications it is imperative that a rigorous model skill assessment is conducted so that the models capabilities are tested and understood. Herein, we review several metrics and approaches useful to evaluate model skill. The definition of skill and the determination of the skill level necessary for a given application is context specific and no single metric is likely to reveal all aspects of model skill. Thus, we recommend the use of several metrics, in concert, to provide a more thorough appraisal. The routine application and presentation of rigorous skill assessment metrics will also serve the broader interests of the modeling community, ultimately resulting in improved forecasting abilities as well as helping us recognize our limitations.

An underwater light attenuation scheme for marine ecosystem models.

Simulation of underwater light is essential for modeling marine ecosystems. A new model of underwater light attenuation is presented and compared with previous models. In situ data collected in Monterey Bay, CA. during September 2006 are used for validation. It is demonstrated that while the new light model is computationally simple and efficient it maintains accuracy and flexibility. When this light model is incorporated into an ecosystem model, the correlation between modeled and observed coastal chlorophyll is improved over an eight-year time period. While the simulation of a deep chlorophyll maximum demonstrates the effect of the new model at depth.

Forecasting the ocean optical environment in support of Navy mine warfare operations

A 3D ocean optical forecast system called TODS (Tactical Ocean Data System) has been developed to determine the performance of underwater LIDAR detection/identification systems. TODS fuses optical measurements from gliders, surface satellite optical properties, and 3D ocean forecast circulation models to extend the 2-dimensional surface satellite optics into a 3-dimensional optical volume including subsurface optical layers of beam attenuation coefficient (c) and diver visibility. Optical 3D nowcast and forecasts are combined with electro-optical identification (EOID) models to determine the underwater LIDAR imaging performance field used to identify subsurface mine threats in rapidly changing coastal regions. TODS was validated during a recent mine warfare exercise with Helicopter Mine Countermeasures Squadron (HM-14). Results include the uncertainties in the optical forecast and lidar performance and sensor tow height predictions that are based on visual detection and identification metrics using actual mine target images from the EOID system. TODS is a new capability of coupling the 3D optical environment and EOID system performance and is proving important for the MIW community as both a tactical decision aid and for use in operational planning, improving timeliness and efficiency in clearance operations.

Biological Modulation of Upper Ocean Physics: Simulating the Biothermal Feedback Effect in Monterey Bay, California

Marine phytoplankton and associated organic materials absorb a substantial quantity of solar shortwave energy penetrating the upper ocean. Most of this absorbed energy is lost as heat and thereby contributes to the warming of near-surface waters. Here we examine this biothermal feedback effect on upper ocean physics and air-sea energy exchange using a fully integrated ocean-atmosphere-biological modeling system. Our model simulations show that a local phytoplankton bloom may impact upper ocean physics in such a way as to promote the spatiotemporal persistence of the bloom itself within a semi-enclosed coastal embayment. This is accomplished primarily via enhanced thermal stratification that promotes vertical stability and more efficient utilization of macronutrients. Modulations of wind stress patterns due to perturbations in the local surface pressure gradients also arise as a result of the simulated biothermal warming of surface waters. The model evidence suggests that the observed persistence of phytoplankton blooms in the northern Monterey Bay, California, may be enhanced by similar synergistic interactions between ocean biology and physics.

Simulating biogeo-optical dynamics in the bottom boundary layer: northern Gulf of Mexico test case

Interdisciplinary coastal observations over a two-week period in the northern Gulf of Mexico reveal a complex and dynamic bottom boundary layer (BBL) that is characterized by both biological and suspended sediment (biogeo-) optical signals. Much of the BBL optical variance is concealed from remote sensing by the opacity of the nearly omnipresent surface river plume, however, the BBL physical dynamics and resulting optical excitation are indeed responding to surface wind stress forcing and surface gravity wave-induced turbulence. Here we present a series of numerical modeling efforts and approaches aimed towards resolving and simulating these observed biogeo-physical and –optical processes. First, we examine results from the Tactical Ocean Data System (TODS), which combines daily satellite imagery with numerical circulation model results to render a three-dimensional estimate of the optical field and then execute a reduced-order complexity advection-diffusionreaction model to render hourly forecasts. Whereas the TODS system has the advantage of effectively assimilating both glider data and satellite images, the 3D generation algorithms still have difficulty in the northern Gulf’s complex 3-layered system (surface plume, geostrophic interior, BBL). Second, we present results from the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction (COAMPS) system that has been modified to include interactive surface-gravity wave simulations. Results from this complex numerical modeling system suggest that Stokes drift current (SDC) has a potentially major role in determining the physical and kinematic characteristics of the BBL, and will substantially impact model-based estimates of sediment resuspension and transport.