Travis A. Smith

Measuring weight outcomes for obesity intervention strategies: The case of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax

Taxing unhealthy foods has been proposed as a means to improve diet and health by reducing calorie intake and raising funds to combat obesity, particularly sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). A growing number of studies have examined the effects of such food taxes, but few have estimated the weight-loss effects. Typically, a static model of 3500 calories for one pound of body weight is used, and the main objective of the study is to demonstrate its bias. To accomplish the objective, we estimate income-segmented beverage demand systems to examine the potential effects of a SSB tax. Elasticity estimates and a hypothetical 20 percent effective tax rate (or about 0.5 cent per ounce) are applied to beverage intake data from a nationally representative survey, and we find an average daily reduction of 34-47 calories among adults and 40-51 calories among children. The tax-induced energy reductions are translated into weight loss using both static and dynamic calorie-to-weight models. Results demonstrate that the static model significantly overestimates the weight loss from reduced energy intake by 63 percent in year one, 346 percent in year five, and 764 percent in year 10, which leads to unrealistic expectations for obesity intervention strategies. The tax is estimated to generate

Taxing Caloric Sweetened Beverages: Potential Effects on Beverage Consumption, Calorie Intake, and Obesity

5.8 billion a year in revenue and is found to be regressive, although it represents about 1 percent of household food and beverage spending.

Does price or income affect organic choice? Analysis of U.S. fresh produce users

The link between high U.S. obesity rates and the overconsumption of added sugars, largely from sodas and fruit drinks, has prompted public calls for a tax on caloric sweetened beverages. Faced with such a tax, consumers may reduce consumption of these sweetened beverages and substitute nontaxed beverages, such as bottled water, juice, and milk. This study estimated that a tax-induced 20-percent price increase on caloric sweetened beverages could cause an average reduction of 37 calories per day, or 3.8 pounds of body weight over a year, for adults and an average of 43 calories per day, or 4.5 pounds over a year, for children. Given these reductions in calorie consumption, results show an estimated decline in adult overweight prevalence (66.9 to 62.4 percent) and obesity prevalence (33.4 to 30.4 percent), as well as the child at-risk-for-overweight prevalence (32.3 to 27.0 percent) and the overweight prevalence (16.6 to 13.7 percent). Actual impacts would depend on many factors, including how the tax is reflected in consumer prices and the competitive strategies of beverage manufacturers and food retailers.

Estimating organic premiums in the US fluid milk market.

This study analyzes consumer purchasing behavior of organic fresh fruits and vegetables using the 2006 Nielsen Homescan panel. An ordered logit model was estimated to quantify the impacts of economic and socio-demographic factors on the probability of a household belonging to a specific organic user group—devoted, casual, or nonuser. Results suggest that price and income, to some extent, affect consumer purchases of organic produce. Additionally, the profile of an organic produce user is most likely to consist of an Hispanic household residing in the Western United States with children under 6 years old and a household head older than 54 years with at least a college degree.

Is Diet Quality Improving? Distributional Changes in the United States, 1989–2008

Using actual retail purchases from the 2006 Nielsen Homescan panel data, we estimate a hedonic model on price premiums and discounts associated with household characteristics, market factors, and product attributes focusing on the organic attribute for fluid milk. The organic attribute carries a significant price premium, which is largest of all product attributes considered in this study. Further, additional price variations among organic milk are observed for differences in fat content, container size and branding. Specifically, the results suggest that organic price premiums for half-gallon milk range from

Do School Food Programs Improve Child Dietary Quality

1.23 for whole private label organic milk (60‐68% above conventional counterpart) to

Food Waste and Food Retail Density

1.86 for nonfat/skim-branded organic milk (89‐109% above conventional counterpart). The study also found that milk sold in a discount store (i.e., supercenter or club warehouse) was price 13 cents per half gallon, or 7.4%, below milk sold through other venues, and that milk on sale was priced 26 cents per half gallon, or 14.3%, less than the regular average price. Although household characteristics exert little influence on price relative to product attributes and market factors, the study does find that unmarried households and those with children under six pay slightly higher prices for milk, possibly due to time constraints.

The Effect of Sunday Alcohol Sales Bans on Teen Drinking in Georgia

This article measures changes in the distribution of dietary quality among adults in the United States over the period 1989-2008. Diet quality is a direct input to health, is often used as a proxy for well-being, and is an outcome variable for a wide variety of economic interventions. For the population as a whole, we find significant improvements across all levels of diet quality. Further, we find improvements for both low-income and higher-income individuals alike. Counterfactual distributions of dietary quality are constructed to investigate the extent to which observed improvements can be attributed to changes in the nutritional content of foods and to changes in population characteristics. We find that 63% of the improvement for all adults can be attributed to changes in food formulation and demographics. Changes in food formulation account for a substantially larger percentage of the dietary improvement within the lower-income population (19.6%) vs. the higher-income population (6.4%).

Household Food Waste: Theory and Empirics

This paper estimates the impact of U.S. school food programs on the distribution of child dietary quality during 2005−10. The distributional approach allows one to better understand how school food impacts children prone to low‐quality diets separately from those prone to higher‐quality diets. Using a fixed‐effects quantile estimator, I find notable heterogeneity in the general population—school food has positive impacts below the median of the dietary‐quality distribution, and negative but insignificant impacts at upper quantiles. Children demonstrating substantial nutritional needs (i.e., food insecure or receiving free/reduced price meals) exhibit positive impacts at all levels of diet quality with especially high benefits at low quantiles. Although school food programs may not benefit the “above‐average” child, they do improve the diets of the most nutritionally disadvantaged.

U.S. Demand for Organic and Conventional Fresh Fruits: The Roles of Income and Price

ABSTRACT This paper examines the relationship between food retail density and municipal solid waste. We test for correlations between the volume of solid waste and the number of food-at-home retailers (e.g., grocery stores) and food-away-from-home retailers (e.g., restaurants) at the county level in the state of Mississippi over 2007–2012. Since food scraps comprise the largest share of post-recycling municipal solid waste in the United States, we control for the overall level of economic activity to account for other sources of solid waste, as well as demographic factors, county, and time effects. We find that increases in food-at-home retailer density are negatively correlated with solid waste volume. Conversely, we find that increases in the number of food-away-from-home retailers lead to more waste. While we do not explicitly investigate the mechanisms, we discuss possible avenues such as increased food access in the case of food at home, and increased portion sizes and substitutability in the case of food away from home.