J. Matthew Brennan

Contemporary mortality risk prediction for percutaneous coronary intervention: results from 588,398 procedures in the National Cardiovascular Data Registry.

OBJECTIVES We sought to create contemporary models for predicting mortality risk following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). BACKGROUND There is a need to identify PCI risk factors and accurately quantify procedural risks to facilitate comparative effectiveness research, provider comparisons, and informed patient decision making. METHODS Data from 181,775 procedures performed from January 2004 to March 2006 were used to develop risk models based on pre-procedural and/or angiographic factors using logistic regression. These models were independently evaluated in 2 validation cohorts: contemporary (n = 121,183, January 2004 to March 2006) and prospective (n = 285,440, March 2006 to March 2007). RESULTS Overall, PCI in-hospital mortality was 1.27%, ranging from 0.65% in elective PCI to 4.81% in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients. Multiple pre-procedural clinical factors were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. Angiographic variables provided only modest incremental information to pre-procedural risk assessments. The overall National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) model, as well as a simplified NCDR risk score (based on 8 key pre-procedure factors), had excellent discrimination (c-index: 0.93 and 0.91, respectively). Discrimination and calibration of both risk tools were retained among specific patient subgroups, in the validation samples, and when used to estimate 30-day mortality rates among Medicare patients. CONCLUSIONS Risks for early mortality following PCI can be accurately predicted in contemporary practice. Incorporation of such risk tools should facilitate research, clinical decisions, and policy applications.

Outcomes Following Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement in the United States

IMPORTANCE Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of severe, symptomatic aortic stenosis and inoperable status (in 2011) and high-risk but operable status (starting in 2012). A national registry (the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy [STS/ACC TVT] Registry) was initiated to meet a condition for Medicare coverage and also facilitates outcome assessment and comparison with other trials and international registries. OBJECTIVE To report the initial US commercial experience with TAVR. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We obtained results from all eligible US TAVR cases (n=7710) from 224 participating registry hospitals following the Edwards Sapien XT device commercialization (November 2011-May 2013). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Primary outcomes included all-cause in-hospital mortality and stroke following TAVR. Secondary analyses included procedural complications and outcomes by clinical indication and access site. Device implantation success was defined as successful vascular access, deployment of a single device in the proper anatomic position, appropriate valve function without either moderate or severe AR, and successful retrieval of the delivery system. Thirty-day outcomes are presented for a representative 3133 cases (40.6%) at 114 centers with at least 80% complete follow-up reporting. RESULTS The 7710 patients who underwent TAVR included 1559 (20%) cases that were inoperable and 6151 (80%) cases that were high-risk but operable. The median age was 84 years (interquartile range [IQR], 78-88 years); 3783 patients (49%) were women and the median STS predicted risk of mortality was 7% (IQR, 5%-11%). At baseline, 2176 patients (75%) were either not at all satisfied (1297 patients [45%]) or mostly dissatisfied (879 patients [30%]) with their symptom status; 2198 (72%) had a 5-m walk time longer than 6 seconds (slow gait speed). The most common vascular access approach was transfemoral (4972 patients [64%]), followed by transapical (2197 patients [29%]) and other alternative approaches (536 patients [7%]); successful device implantation occurred in 7069 patients (92%; 95% CI, 91%-92%). The observed incidence of in-hospital mortality was 5.5% (95% CI, 5.0%-6.1%). Other major complications included stroke (2.0%; 95% CI, 1.7%-2.4%), dialysis-dependent renal failure (1.9%; 95% CI, 1.6%-2.2%), and major vascular injury (6.4%; 95% CI, 5.8%-6.9%). Median hospital stay was 6 days (IQR, 4-10 days), with 4613 (63%) discharged home. Among patients with available follow-up at 30 days (n=3133), the incidence of mortality was 7.6% (95% CI, 6.7%-8.6%) (noncardiovascular cause, 52%); a stroke had occurred in 2.8% (95% CI, 2.3%-3.5%), new dialysis in 2.5% (95% CI, 2.0%-3.1%), and reintervention in 0.5% (95% CI, 0.3%-0.8%). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among patients undergoing TAVR at US centers in the STS/ACC TVT Registry, device implantation success was achieved in 92% of cases, the overall in-hospital mortality rate was 5.5%, and the stroke rate was 2.0%. Although these postmarket US approval findings are comparable with prior published trial data and international experience, long-term follow-up is essential to assess continued efficacy and safety. TRIAL REGISTRATION clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01737528.

Clinical Outcomes at 1 Year Following Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

IMPORTANCE Introducing new medical devices into routine practice raises concerns because patients and outcomes may differ from those in randomized trials. OBJECTIVE To update the previous report of 30-day outcomes and present 1-year outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) in the United States. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology (STS/ACC) Transcatheter Valve Therapies Registry were linked with patient-specific Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) administrative claims data. At 299 US hospitals, 12 182 patients linked with CMS data underwent TAVR procedures performed from November 2011 through June 30, 2013, and the end of the follow-up period was June 30, 2014. EXPOSURE Transcatheter aortic valve replacement. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES One-year outcomes including mortality, stroke, and rehospitalization were evaluated using multivariate modeling. RESULTS The median age of patients was 84 years and 52% were women, with a median STS Predicted Risk of Operative Mortality (STS PROM) score of 7.1%. Following the TAVR procedure, 59.8% were discharged to home and the 30-day mortality was 7.0% (95% CI, 6.5%-7.4%) (n = 847 deaths). In the first year after TAVR, patients were alive and out of the hospital for a median of 353 days (interquartile range, 312-359 days); 24.4% (n = 2074) of survivors were rehospitalized once and 12.5% (n = 1525) were rehospitalized twice. By 1 year, the overall mortality rate was 23.7% (95% CI, 22.8%-24.5%) (n = 2450 deaths), the stroke rate was 4.1% (95% CI, 3.7%-4.5%) (n = 455 stroke events), and the rate of the composite outcome of mortality and stroke was 26.0% (25.1%-26.8%) (n = 2719 events). Characteristics significantly associated with 1-year mortality included advanced age (hazard ratio [HR] for ≥95 vs <75 years, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.24-2.09]; HR for 85-94 years vs <75 years, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.18-1.55]; and HR for 75-84 years vs <75 years, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.08-1.41]), male sex (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.12-1.31), end-stage renal disease (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.41-1.95), severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.25-1.55), nontransfemoral access (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.27-1.48), STS PROM score greater than 15% vs less than 8% (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.60-2.06), and preoperative atrial fibrillation/flutter (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.27-1.48). Compared with men, women had a higher risk of stroke (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.15-1.71). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among patients undergoing TAVR in US clinical practice, at 1-year follow-up, overall mortality was 23.7%, the stroke rate was 4.1%, and the rate of the composite outcome of death and stroke was 26.0%. These findings should be helpful in discussions with patients undergoing TAVR.

Predictors of Mitral Valve Repair: Clinical and Surgeon Factors

BACKGROUND Mitral valve repair is acknowledged as desirable and superior to replacement for virtually all mitral pathology. Utilizing The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (ACSD), a multivariable model was created that included patient clinical characteristics and surgeon-specific mitral volume to predict the likelihood of mitral valve repair. METHODS Between January 2005 and December 2007, 28,507 patients undergoing isolated mitral valve surgery (with or without tricuspid valve surgery, with or without atrial fibrillation surgery) by 1,088 surgeons at 639 hospitals in the STS ACSD were identified. Patient characteristics independently associated with mitral valve repair were identified using a generalized estimating equations logistic regression model. Observed mitral valve repair rates were plotted against surgeon-specific annual mitral volume, and predicted probabilities of mitral repair by surgeon volume were calculated after adjusting for patient baseline covariates. RESULTS On average, patients undergoing mitral valve surgery were 62 years old, with 51% female and 82% Caucasian. Among surgeons performing mitral procedures, the mean rate of mitral valve repair was 41% (range, 0% to 100%) and the median number of mitral valve operations per year was 5 (range, 1 to 166). Several patient characteristics were independently associated with a decreased odds of mitral repair (versus replacement), including mitral stenosis (odds ratio 0.09; 95% confidence interval: 0.08 to 0.11) and active endocarditis (odds ratio 0.21; 95% confidence interval: 0.17 to 0.25). While substantial variability in repair rates was observed among low-volume surgeons, increased surgeon-level mitral volume was independently associated with an increased probability of mitral repair. CONCLUSIONS This analysis demonstrates marked variability in the frequency of mitral valve repair, and the influence of both patient- and surgeon-level factors on the likelihood of mitral valve repair. Increasing surgeon-specific annual mitral valve volume is associated with a higher probability of mitral repair. Identification of these predictors of mitral valve repair creates substantial opportunity for quality improvement in patient outcomes in mitral valve surgery, potentially through education, adoption of best practices, and improved mitral repair enabling technology.

Clinical Effectiveness of Coronary Stents in Elderly Persons: Results From 262,700 Medicare Patients in the American College of Cardiology―National Cardiovascular Data Registry

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to compare outcomes in older individuals receiving drug-eluting stents (DES) and bare-metal stents (BMS). BACKGROUND Comparative effectiveness of DES relative to BMS remains unclear. METHODS Outcomes were evaluated in 262,700 patients from 650 National Cardiovascular Data Registry sites during 2004 to 2006 with procedural registry data linked to Medicare claims for follow-up. Outcomes including death, myocardial infarction (MI), revascularization, major bleeding, stroke, death or MI, death or MI or revascularization, and death or MI or stroke were compared with estimated cumulative incidence rates with inverse probability weighted estimators and Cox proportional hazards ratios. RESULTS The DES were implanted in 217,675 patients and BMS were implanted in 45,025. At 30 months, DES patients had lower unadjusted rates of death (12.9% vs. 17.9%), MI (7.3 of 100 patients vs. 10.0 of 100 patients), and revascularization (23.0 of 100 patients vs. 24.5 of 100 patients) with no difference in stroke or bleeding. After adjustment, DES patients had lower rates of death (13.5% vs. 16.5%, hazard ratio [HR]: 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72 to 0.79, p < 0.001) and MI (7.5 of 100 patients vs. 8.9 of 100 patients, HR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.72 to 0.81, p < 0.001), with minimal difference in revascularization (23.5 of 100 patients vs. 23.4 of 100 patients; HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.87 to 0.96), stroke (3.1 of 100 patients vs. 2.7 of 100 patients, HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.88 to 1.07), or bleeding (3.4 of 100 patients vs. 3.6 of 100 patients, HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.84 to 1.00). The DES survival benefit was observed in all subgroups analyzed and persisted throughout 30 months of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS In this largest ever real-world study, patients receiving DES had significantly better clinical outcomes than their BMS counterparts, without an associated increase in bleeding or stroke, throughout 30 months of follow-up and across all pre-specified subgroups.

Successful linking of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons adult cardiac surgery database to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Medicare data.

BACKGROUND The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Medicare database complements The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) database by providing information about long-term outcomes and cost. This study demonstrates the feasibility of linking STS data to CMS data and examines the penetration, completeness, and representativeness of the STS database. METHODS Using variables common to both STS and CMS databases, STS operations were linked to CMS data for all CMS coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) hospitalizations discharged between 2000 and 2007, inclusive. For each CMS CABG hospitalization, it was determined whether a matching STS record existed. RESULTS Center-level penetration (number of CMS sites with at least one matched STS participant divided by the total number of CMS CABG sites) increased from 45% to 78%. In 2007, 854 of 1,101 CMS CABG sites (78%) were linked to an STS site. Patient-level penetration (number of CMS CABG hospitalizations done at STS sites divided by the total number of CMS CABG hospitalizations) increased from 51% to 84%. In 2007, 94,409 of 111,967 CMS CABG hospitalizations (84%) were at an STS site. Completeness of case inclusion at STS sites (number of CMS CABG cases at STS sites linked to STS records divided by the total number of CMS CABG cases at STS sites) increased from 88% to 97%. In 2007, 88,857 of 91,363 CMS CABG hospitalizations at STS sites (97%) were linked to an STS record. CONCLUSIONS The successful linking of STS and CMS databases demonstrates high and increasing penetration and completeness of the STS database. Linking STS and CMS data will facilitate studying long-term outcomes of cardiothoracic surgery.

Handcarried Ultrasound Measurement of the Inferior Vena Cava for Assessment of Intravascular Volume Status in the Outpatient Hemodialysis Clinic

Accurate intravascular volume assessment is critical in the treatment of patients who receive chronic hemodialysis (HD) therapy. Clinically assessed dry weight is a poor surrogate of intravascular volume; however, ultrasound assessment of the inferior vena cava (IVC) is an effective tool for volume management. This study sought to determine the feasibility of using operators with limited ultrasound experience to assess IVC dimensions using hand-carried ultrasounds (HCU) in the outpatient clinical setting. The IVC was assessed in 89 consecutive patients at two outpatient clinics before and after HD. Intradialytic IVC was recorded during episodes of hypotension, chest pain, or cramping. High-quality IVC images were obtained in 79 of 89 patients. Despite that 89% of patients presented at or above dry weight, 39% of these patients were hypovolemic by HCU. Of the 75% of patients who left HD at or below goal weight, 10% were still hypervolemic by HCU standards. Hypovolemic patients had more episodes of chest pain and cramping (33 versus 14%, P = 0.06) and more episodes of hypotension (22 versus 3%, P = 0.02). The clinic with a higher prevalence of predialysis hypovolemia had significantly more intradialytic adverse events (58 versus 27%; P = 0.01). HCU measurement of the IVC is a feasible option for rapid assessment of intravascular volume status in an outpatient dialysis setting by operators with limited formal training in echocardiography. There is a poor relationship between dry weight goals and IVC collapsibility. Practice variation in the maintenance of volume status is correlated with significant differences in intradialysis adverse events.

Clinical Effectiveness of Coronary Stents in the Elderly: Results from 262,700 Medicare Patients in ACC-NCDR®

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to compare outcomes in older individuals receiving drug-eluting stents (DES) and bare-metal stents (BMS). BACKGROUND Comparative effectiveness of DES relative to BMS remains unclear. METHODS Outcomes were evaluated in 262,700 patients from 650 National Cardiovascular Data Registry sites during 2004 to 2006 with procedural registry data linked to Medicare claims for follow-up. Outcomes including death, myocardial infarction (MI), revascularization, major bleeding, stroke, death or MI, death or MI or revascularization, and death or MI or stroke were compared with estimated cumulative incidence rates with inverse probability weighted estimators and Cox proportional hazards ratios. RESULTS The DES were implanted in 217,675 patients and BMS were implanted in 45,025. At 30 months, DES patients had lower unadjusted rates of death (12.9% vs. 17.9%), MI (7.3 of 100 patients vs. 10.0 of 100 patients), and revascularization (23.0 of 100 patients vs. 24.5 of 100 patients) with no difference in stroke or bleeding. After adjustment, DES patients had lower rates of death (13.5% vs. 16.5%, hazard ratio [HR]: 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72 to 0.79, p < 0.001) and MI (7.5 of 100 patients vs. 8.9 of 100 patients, HR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.72 to 0.81, p < 0.001), with minimal difference in revascularization (23.5 of 100 patients vs. 23.4 of 100 patients; HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.87 to 0.96), stroke (3.1 of 100 patients vs. 2.7 of 100 patients, HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.88 to 1.07), or bleeding (3.4 of 100 patients vs. 3.6 of 100 patients, HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.84 to 1.00). The DES survival benefit was observed in all subgroups analyzed and persisted throughout 30 months of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS In this largest ever real-world study, patients receiving DES had significantly better clinical outcomes than their BMS counterparts, without an associated increase in bleeding or stroke, throughout 30 months of follow-up and across all pre-specified subgroups.

Comparison of hand-carried ultrasound assessment of the inferior vena cava and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide for predicting readmission after hospitalization for acute decompensated heart failure.

OBJECTIVES We sought to compare the value of serial assessment with hand-carried ultrasound (HCU) of the inferior vena cava (IVC) with brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) to identify patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) who will be readmitted or seek emergency department treatment after hospital discharge. BACKGROUND Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a leading cause for hospitalization and, once hospitalized, patients with CHF frequently are readmitted. To date, no reliable index exists that can be used to predict whether patients with ADHF can be discharged with low readmission likelihood. METHODS A total of 75 patients who were admitted with a primary diagnosis of ADHF were followed. All patients were assessed at admission and discharge with the use of routine clinical evaluation, BNP measurement, and HCU evaluation of the IVC by physicians with limited training in ultrasound. RESULTS During the 30-day follow-up, 31 patients were rehospitalized or presented to the emergency department. Patients who were subsequently readmitted could not be differentiated from those who were not readmitted by their demographics, comorbidities, vital signs, presence of symptoms/signs suggestive of persistent congestion, hospital length of stay, or net volume removal. Routine laboratory tests, including assessment of renal function, also failed to predict readmission with the exception of serum sodium. Although admission BNP was similar in patients readmitted and not readmitted, pre-discharge log-transformed BNP was greater in patients who subsequently were readmitted. Patients who required repeat hospitalization had a larger IVC size on admission as well as at discharge. In addition, patients who were readmitted had persistently plethoric IVCs with lower IVC collapsibility indexes. At discharge, only serum sodium, log-transformed BNP, IVC size, and collapsibility were statistically significant predictors of readmission. CONCLUSIONS This study confirms that, once hospitalized, patients with CHF frequently are readmitted. Bedside evaluation of the IVC with a HCU device at the time of admission and discharge, as well as pre-discharge BNP, identified patients admitted with ADHF who were more likely to be readmitted to the hospital.

Long-Term Safety and Effectiveness of Mechanical Versus Biologic Aortic Valve Prostheses in Older Patients Results From the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery National Database

Background— There is a paucity of long-term data comparing biological versus mechanical aortic valve prostheses in older individuals. Methods and Results— We performed follow-up of patients aged 65 to 80 years undergoing aortic valve replacement with a biological (n=24 410) or mechanical (n=14 789) prosthesis from 1991 to 1999 at 605 centers within the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database using Medicare inpatient claims (mean, 12.6 years; maximum, 17 years; minimum, 8 years), and outcomes were compared by propensity methods. Among Medicare-linked patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (mean age, 73 years), both reoperation (4.0%) and endocarditis (1.9%) were uncommon to 12 years; however, the risk for other adverse outcomes was high, including death (66.5%), stroke (14.1%), and bleeding (17.9%). Compared with those receiving a mechanical valve, patients given a bioprosthesis had a similar adjusted risk for death (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.01–1.07), higher risks for reoperation (hazard ratio, 2.55; 95% confidence interval, 2.14–3.03) and endocarditis (hazard ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.31–1.94), and lower risks for stroke (hazard ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.82–0.93) and bleeding (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.62–0.70). Although these results were generally consistent among patient subgroups, bioprosthesis patients aged 65 to 69 years had a substantially elevated 12-year absolute risk of reoperation (10.5%). Conclusions— Among patients undergoing aortic valve replacement, long-term mortality rates were similar for those who received bioprosthetic versus mechanical valves. Bioprostheses were associated with a higher long-term risk of reoperation and endocarditis but a lower risk of stroke and hemorrhage. These risks varied as a function of a patient’s age and comorbidities.