J. Nicolás Urbina-Cardona

Ecological-niche modeling and prioritization of conservation-area networks for Mexican herpetofauna.

One of the most important tools in conservation biology is information on the geographic distribution of species and the variables determining those patterns. We used maximum-entropy niche modeling to run distribution models for 222 amphibian and 371 reptile species (49% endemics and 27% threatened) for which we had 34,619 single geographic records. The planning region is in southeastern Mexico, is 20% of the countrys area, includes 80% of the countrys herpetofauna, and lacks an adequate protected-area system. We used probabilistic data to build distribution models of herpetofauna for use in prioritizing conservation areas for three target groups (all species and threatened and endemic species). The accuracy of species-distribution models was better for endemic and threatened species than it was for all species. Forty-seven percent of the region has been deforested and additional conservation areas with 13.7% to 88.6% more native vegetation (76% to 96% of the areas are outside the current protected-area system) are needed. There was overlap in 26 of the main selected areas in the conservation-area network prioritized to preserve the target groups, and for all three target groups the proportion of vegetation types needed for their conservation was constant: 30% pine and oak forests, 22% tropical evergreen forest, 17% low deciduous forest, and 8% montane cloud forests. The fact that different groups of species require the same proportion of habitat types suggests that the pine and oak forests support the highest proportion of endemic and threatened species and should therefore be given priority over other types of vegetation for inclusion in the protected areas of southeastern Mexico.

The Effects of Governmental Protected Areas and Social Initiatives for Land Protection on the Conservation of Mexican Amphibians

Traditionally, biodiversity conservation gap analyses have been focused on governmental protected areas (PAs). However, an increasing number of social initiatives in conservation (SICs) are promoting a new perspective for analysis. SICs include all of the efforts that society implements to conserve biodiversity, such as land protection, from private reserves to community zoning plans some of which have generated community-protected areas. This is the first attempt to analyze the status of conservation in Latin America when some of these social initiatives are included. The analyses were focused on amphibians because they are one of the most threatened groups worldwide. Mexico is not an exception, where more than 60% of its amphibians are endemic. We used a niche model approach to map the potential and real geographical distribution (extracting the transformed areas) of the endemic amphibians. Based on remnant distribution, all the species have suffered some degree of loss, but 36 species have lost more than 50% of their potential distribution. For 50 micro-endemic species we could not model their potential distribution range due to the small number of records per species, therefore the analyses were performed using these records directly. We then evaluated the efficiency of the existing set of governmental protected areas and established the contribution of social initiatives (private and community) for land protection for amphibian conservation. We found that most of the species have some proportion of their potential ecological niche distribution protected, but 20% are not protected at all within governmental PAs. 73% of endemic and 26% of micro-endemic amphibians are represented within SICs. However, 30 micro-endemic species are not represented within either governmental PAs or SICs. This study shows how the role of land conservation through social initiatives is therefore becoming a crucial element for an important number of species not protected by governmental PAs.

Applying Niche-Based Models to Predict Endangered-Hylid Potential Distributions: Are Neotropical Protected Areas Effective Enough?

Tropical amphibians face a severe decline crisis with ca. 35% of species being currently threatened in the Neotropics. We selected 16 endangered-hylid species and used species records to model their potential geographical distribution for the continental Neotropics. We found that there is a strong influence of slope in hylid geographical distribution that interacts synergistically with maximum rainfall and temperature changes over the year. We identified some intersecting areas of species overprediction along southern Neotropics, which could be important for future biological surveys searching for undescribed microendemic hylid species. Nine of the 16 studied hylids have small geographic ranges with only 25% of its potential distribution being currently protected in the Neotropics. The remaining seven species are still in need of additional conservation areas to ensure the protection of at least 25% of its original distribution range in Mesoamerica. Most Neotropical endangered hylids have only the periphery of their distribution protected with its core distribution outside protected areas. These species may be especially threatened because they now occur in small, isolated subpopulations due to habitat fragmentation and loss. We suggest that conservation efforts for Neotropical hylids should be focused on restricted-range species and in the establishment of additional conservation area networks in Mesoamerica. Remaining habitats for threatened hylids need to be managed as a coordinate network including site-scale and landscape-scale actions to buffer the extinction-driven process caused by inbreeding, genetic drift, and demographic stochasticity.

PATRONES DE DIVERSIDAD Y COMPOSICIÓN DE REPTILES EN FRAGMENTOS DE BOSQUE SECO TROPICAL EN CÓRDOBA, COLOMBIA

El bosque seco tropical es uno de los ecosistemas más amenazado del planeta y los reptiles que alberga han sido pobremente estudiados. En seis fragmentos de bosque seco tropical (con un área entre 7 y 84 ha) rodeados por potrero, se muestrearon reptiles durante el día y la noche, en tres temporadas a lo largo de 120 transectos lineales. Se encontró mayor riqueza de especies en los fragmentos de mayor área pero la relación “número de especies-área del fragmento” se perdió a medida que los estimadores de riqueza predijeron mayor número de especies en el ensamble. La abundancia total de reptiles y la composición de especies no varió en relación al área del fragmento pero el fragmento de mayor área presentó el mayor número de especies exclusivas. El mayor recambio de especies se dio entre los fragmentos grandes y los pequeños. El tamaño del fragmento claramente afectó a Anolis vittigerus, lagarto que hasta el momento no se encuentra incluido en las categorías de riesgo de la UICN. Más del 70% de las especies encontradas son raras (abundancia < a 4 individuos) por lo cual es necesario realizar estudios poblacionales intensivos para poder conocer la respuesta de las especies crípticas a la pérdida y fragmentación del hábitat.