Rafael Loyola

Moment of truth for the Cerrado hotspot

Despite projections of a severe extinction event, a window of opportunity is now open for a mix of policies to avoid biodiversity collapse in the Cerrado hotspot.

Ensemble forecasting shifts in climatically suitable areas for Tropidacris cristata (Orthoptera: Acridoidea: Romaleidae)

Abstract.  1. The effects of climate change on species’ ranges have been usually inferred using niche‐based models creating bioclimatic envelopes that are projected into geographical space. Here, we apply an ensemble forecasting approach for niche models in the Neotropical grasshopper Tropidacris cristata (Acridoidea: Romaleidae). A novel protocol was used to partition and map the variation in modelled ranges due to niche models, Atmosphere‐Ocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCM), and emission scenarios.

Agricultural expansion and the fate of global conservation priorities

Non-governmental organizations have proposed nine different global prioritization schemes, some of them focusing on areas with low vulnerability (a proactive reasoning) and some others targeting areas with high vulnerability (a reactive reasoning). The main threat to the remaining natural habitats of these areas is the expansion of agriculture. We evaluated the spatial congruence between agricultural land cover and global conservation priority areas in the present and in the future using a spatial model of land use cover change from 2000 to 2100. We showed that by the year 2000, the extent of agriculture was larger in reactive priority areas than in the rest of the world, while it was smaller in areas highlighted as important under proactive approaches. During the twenty-first century, we found a general increase in agriculture area and the difference between the approaches of conservation schemes is expected to hold true, although we found that high-biodiversity wilderness areas (HBWA), a proactive scheme, may be specially affected in certain scenarios of future change. These results suggest an increase in conservation conflicts over this century. In face of agricultural expansion, both kinds of prioritization approaches are important, but different strategies of protection are necessary (e.g., reactive approaches need the urgent protection of remnant habitats, while proactive ones have space to create megareserves). Further, conservation organizations must include agriculture expansion data and their uncertainty in conservation planning in order to be more successful in biological conservation.

Severe Loss of Suitable Climatic Conditions for Marsupial Species in Brazil: Challenges and Opportunities for Conservation

A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. The impacts of these changes, which may have already resulted in several recent species extinction, are species-specific and produce shifts in species phenology, ecological interactions, and geographical distributions. Here we used cutting-edge methods of species distribution models combining thousands of model projections to generate a complete and comprehensive ensemble of forecasts that shows the likely impacts of climate change in the distribution of all 55 marsupial species that occur in Brazil. Consensus projections forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in the southeast of Brazil, both for the current time and for 2050. Most species had a significant range contraction and lost climate space. Turnover rates were relatively high, but vary across the country. We also mapped sites retaining climatic suitability. They can be found in all Brazilian biomes, especially in the pampas region, in the southern part of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, in the north of the Cerrado and Caatinga, and in the northwest of the Amazon. Our results provide a general overview on the likely effects of global climate change on the distribution of marsupials in the country as well as in the patterns of species richness and turnover found in regional marsupial assemblages.

Integrating economic costs and biological traits into global conservation priorities for carnivores

Background Prioritization schemes usually highlight species-rich areas, where many species are at imminent risk of extinction. To be ecologically relevant these schemes should also include species biological traits into area-setting methods. Furthermore, in a world of limited funds for conservation, conservation action is constrained by land acquisition costs. Hence, including economic costs into conservation priorities can substantially improve their conservation cost-effectiveness. Methodology/Principal Findings We examined four global conservation scenarios for carnivores based on the joint mapping of economic costs and species biological traits. These scenarios identify the most cost-effective priority sets of ecoregions, indicating best investment opportunities for safeguarding every carnivore species, and also establish priority sets that can maximize species representation in areas harboring highly vulnerable species. We compared these results with a scenario that minimizes the total number of ecoregions required for conserving all species, irrespective of other factors. We found that cost-effective conservation investments should focus on 41 ecoregions highlighted in the scenario that consider simultaneously both ecoregion vulnerability and economic costs of land acquisition. Ecoregions included in priority sets under these criteria should yield best returns of investments since they harbor species with high extinction risk and have lower mean land cost. Conclusions/Significance Our study highlights ecoregions of particular importance for the conservation of the worlds carnivores defining global conservation priorities in analyses that encompass socioeconomic and life-history factors. We consider the identification of a comprehensive priority-set of areas as a first step towards an in-situ biodiversity maintenance strategy.

A straightforward conceptual approach for evaluating spatial conservation priorities under climate change

Despite wide evidence of a quickly changing world, systematic conservation planning analyses are usually static assuming that the biodiversity being preserved in sites do not change through time. Here we generated a comprehensive ensemble forecasting experiment for 444 amphibian species inhabiting the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot. Models were based on four methods for modeling ecological niches, and three future climate simulations. Combinations of these models were used to estimate species occurrences. We used species occurrences to optimize the current and future representation of amphibians with different conservation targets based on their geographic range size. We compared spatial priority outcomes (variance of site selection frequency scores) under dynamic conditions, using a bi-dimensional plot in which the relative importance of each site in achieving conservation targets was assessed both for current time and to 2050. Projections for 2050 show that species richness pattern will remain approximately constant, whereas high turnover rates are forecasted. Selection frequency of several locations varied widely, with recurrent sites located at the north and southeast of the biome. As for 2050, spatial priorities concentrate in the northern part of the biome. Thirty-three sites have high priority for conservation as they play an important role now and will still stand as priority locations in 2050. We present a conceptual model for dynamic spatial conservation prioritization that helps to identify priority sites under climate change. We also call attention to sites in which risk of investment is high, and to those that may become interesting options in the future.

Planning for optimal conservation of geographical genetic variability within species

Systematic Conservation Planning (SCP) involves a series of steps that should be accomplished to determine the most cost-effective way to invest in conservation action. Although SCP has been usually applied at the species level (or hierarchically higher), it is possible to use alleles from molecular analyses at the population level as basic units for analyses. Here we demonstrate how SCP procedures can be used to establish optimum strategies for in situ and ex situ conservation of a single species, using Dipteryx alata (a Fabaceae tree species widely distributed and endemics to Brazilian Cerrado) as a case study. Data for the analyses consisted in 52 alleles from eight microsatellite loci coded for a total of 644 individual trees sampled in 25 local populations throughout species’ geographic range. We found optimal solutions in which seven local populations are the smallest set of local populations of D. alata that should be conserved to represent the known genetic diversity. Combining these several solutions allowed estimating the relative importance of the local populations for conserving all known alleles, taking into account the current land-use patterns in the region. A germplasm collection for this species already exists, so we also used SCP approach to identify the smallest number of populations that should be further collected in the field to complement the existing collection, showing that only four local populations should be sampled for optimizing the species ex situ representation. The initial application of the SCP methods to genetic data showed here can be a useful starting point for methodological and conceptual improvements and may be a first important step towards a comprehensive and balanced quantitative definition of conservation goals, shedding light to new possibilities for in situ and ex situ designs within species.

Conservation Actions Based on Red Lists Do Not Capture the Functional and Phylogenetic Diversity of Birds in Brazil

Red Lists of threatened species play a critical role in conservation science and practice. However, policy-making based on Red Lists ignores ecological and evolutionary consequences of losing biodiversity because these lists focus on species alone. To decide if relying on Red Lists alone can help to conserve communities’ functional (FD) and phylogenetic (PD) diversity, it is useful to evaluate whether Red List categories represent species with diverse ecological traits and evolutionary histories. Additionally, local scale analyses using regional Red Lists should represent more realistic pools of co-occurring species and thereby better capture eventual losses of FD and PD. Here, we used 21 life-history traits and a phylogeny for all Brazilian birds to determine whether species assigned under the IUCN global Red List, the Brazilian national, and regional Red Lists capture more FD and PD than expected by chance. We also built local Red Lists and analysed if they capture more FD and PD at the local scale. Further, we investigated whether individual threat categories have species with greater FD and PD than expected by chance. At any given scale, threat categories did not capture greater FD or PD than expected by chance. Indeed, mostly categories captured equal or less FD or PD than expected by chance. These findings would not have great consequences if Red Lists were not often considered as a major decision support tool for policy-making. Our results challenge the practice of investing conservation resources based only on species Red Lists because, from an ecological and evolutionary point of view, this would be the same as protecting similar or random sets of species. Thus, new prioritization methods, such as the EDGE of Existence initiative, should be developed and applied to conserve species’ ecological traits and evolutionary histories at different spatial scales.

Insects on urban plants: contrasting the flower head feeding assemblages on native and exotic hosts

Exotic plant species very often comprise a large proportion of urban floras. Because herbivorous insects depend on the presence of suitable host plants to maintain their populations, it is imperative to elucidate the relative importance of native and exotic hosts to understand the response of herbivorous guilds to urbanization. By using a plant-herbivore system composed of Asteraceae hosts and flower-head endophagous insects, we investigated whether the diversity and composition of herbivorous insects differs between native and exotic host-plant species in an urban environment. Although we found only seven exotic Asteraceae among the 30 species recorded, the overall abundance of exotics was considerably greater than that of native host plants. Overall, the exotic host species supported a small subset of the herbivore assemblage found on the native ones. The number of herbivore species per host species was significantly higher among the native plants, but we did not find a difference in herbivore abundance. Moreover, the higher taxonomic composition of herbivores on exotic Asteraceae was reduced, being composed of only three genera and two families from a total of 16 genera and six families of herbivores. These results provide support for the idea that plants outside of their original geographic distribution have lower loads of enemies than phylogenetically related native species. Our findings indicate that native host plants in urban areas play a critical role in supporting the native herbivorous insect fauna.

Land Use Explains the Distribution of Threatened New World Amphibians Better than Climate

Background We evaluated the direct and indirect influence of climate, land use, phylogenetic structure, species richness and endemism on the distribution of New World threatened amphibians. Methodology/Principal Findings We used the WWF’s New World ecoregions, the WWFs amphibian distributional data and the IUCN Red List Categories to obtain the number of threatened species per ecoregion. We analyzed three different scenarios urgent, moderate, and the most inclusive scenario. Using path analysis we evaluated the direct and indirect effects of climate, type of land use, phylogenetic structure, richness and endemism on the number of threatened amphibians in New World ecoregions. In all scenarios we found strong support for direct influences of endemism, the cover of villages and species richness on the number of threatened species in each ecoregion. The proportion of wild area had indirect effects in the moderate and the most inclusive scenario. Phylogenetic composition was important in determining the species richness and endemism in each ecoregion. Climate variables had complex and indirect effects on the number of threatened species. Conclusion/Significance Land use has a more direct influence than climate in determining the distribution of New World threatened amphibians. Independently of the scenario analyzed, the main variables influencing the distribution of threatened amphibians were consistent, with endemism having the largest magnitude path coefficient. The importance of phylogenetic composition could indicate that some clades may be more threatened than others, and their presence increases the number of threatened species. Our results highlight the importance of man-made land transformation, which is a local variable, as a critical factor underlying the distribution of threatened amphibians at a biogeographic scale.