J.P. Deane

Derivation of Intertemporal Targets for Large Pumped Hydro Energy Storage With Stochastic Optimization

This paper models large pumped hydro energy storage in a future power system where variable generation, primarily in the form of wind generation, is the dominant source of power generation. The research question posed is how to formulate day-ahead and week-ahead reservoir targets for pumped hydro energy storage in the context of wind forecast uncertainty. The innovation in the work is the use of historical wind data series and wind forecasts to derive a management strategy for the operation of large PHES using stochastic optimization that outperforms current methods in power systems with significant wind generation. This approach derives intertemporal targets for large pumped hydro energy storage that reduce overall system costs when compared to targets derived using a conventional method.

Soft-Linking Exercises Between TIMES, Power System Models and Housing Stock Models

Soft-linking TIMES models with carefully selected complementary models can provide useful additional insights into the results from the TIMES model and can usefully scrutinize specific TIMES results in greater detail with another model. This multi-model approach can take advantage of the individual strengths of different modelling approaches. This chapter collates methodologies and results from a number of soft-linking exercises with TIMES. Two specific examples are given; firstly the soft-linking of TIMES to a power system model to investigate the TIMES results and provide additional insights into power system flexibility, reliability and market issues. The second example comprises the soft-linking of a TIMES model to a power system and a housing stock model to explore the impacts of increased electrification of residential heating on the power system and associated emissions from the residential sector. These examples show how a multi-model approach and soft-linking can provide a strong complementary analysis to TIMES modelling exercises and generate insights into results that otherwise would be difficult to achieve with a single model approach.

Implications of the photovoltaic generation on the non-photovoltaic generation in the Lombardy region

Photovoltaic generation has reached high penetration levels in many countries. Photovoltaic like other variable renewables can have significant implications for the adequacy and operation of the power system and in general these implications can be location specific. This work focuses on the Lombardy region, in Italy, to study the implications that different penetrations of photovoltaic would have on the need for firm generation capacity and on the variability that this firm capacity would have to face. This is done by analyzing a the combination of real historical irradiance and demand data for the year 2012. Results show that even high penetrations of photovoltaic in the region would not reduce the need for firm generation. Moreover, high levels of generation from PVwould lead to higher and more frequent changes in generation. These considerations must be properly taken into account when encouraging the penetration of photovoltaic and when modeling power systems for planning purposes.