J. R. Toggweiler

Estimates of anthropogenic carbon uptake from four three-dimensional global ocean models

We have compared simulations of anthropogenic CO2 in the four three-dimensional ocean models that participated in the first phase of the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP), as a means to identify their major differences. Simulated global uptake agrees to within ±19%, giving a range of 1.85±0.35 Pg C yr−1 for the 1980–1989 average. Regionally, the Southern Ocean dominates the present-day air-sea flux of anthropogenic CO2 in all models, with one third to one half of the global uptake occurring south of 30°S. The highest simulated total uptake in the Southern Ocean was 70% larger than the lowest. Comparison with recent data-based estimates of anthropogenic CO2 suggest that most of the models substantially overestimate storage in the Southern Ocean; elsewhere they generally underestimate storage by less than 20%. Globally, the OCMIP models appear to bracket the real oceans present uptake, based on comparison of regional data-based estimates of anthropogenic CO2 and bomb 14C. Column inventories of bomb 14C have become more similar to those for anthropogenic CO2 with the time that has elapsed between the Geochemical Ocean Sections Study (1970s) and World Ocean Circulation Experiment (1990s) global sampling campaigns. Our ability to evaluate simulated anthropogenic CO2 would improve if systematic errors associated with the data-based estimates could be provided regionally.

Global significance of nitrous-oxide production and transport from oceanic low-oxygen zones : A modeling study

Recent studies of marine nitrons oxide have focused attention on the suboxic and low-oxygen zones associated with ocean basin eastern boundaries. It has been suggested that complex N2O cycling mechanisms in these regions may provide a net source to the oceanic interior and a significant portion of the ocean-atmosphere flux. In this study we evaluate the global significance of N2O formation in these regions. N2O is treated as a nonconserved tracer in an ocean general circulation model; a simple source function is developed which models N2O production as a function of organic matter remineralization and local oxygen concentration. Model results are evaluated against both surface and deep observational data sets. The oceanic oxygen minimum zones are predominantly found in the upper water column of tropical latitudes and overlain by regions of strong upwelling in the surface ocean. Simulations of increased N2O production under low-oxygen conditions indicate that the majority of the N2O thus formed escapes directly to the atmosphere and is not subject to significant meridional transport. Results indicate that while enhanced N2O production in these regions cannot be held accountable for the majority of the sea-air flux and interior distribution, it may, however, have significance for the local distribution and provide as much as 25–50% of the global oceanic source.

Ocean carbon-cycle dynamics and atmospheric pCO2

Mechanisms are identified whereby processes internal to the oceans can give rise to rapid changes in atmospheric PCO2. One such mechanism involves exchange between the atmosphere and deep ocean through the high-latitude outcrop regions of the deep waters. The effectiveness of communication between the atmosphere and deep ocean is determined by the rate of exchange between the surface and deep ocean against the rate of biological uptake of the excess carbon brought up from the abyss by this exchange. Changes in the relative magnitude of these two processes can lead to atmospheric pco2 values ranging between 165 p.p.m. (by volume) and 425 p.p.m. compared with1 2 a pre-industrial value of 280 p.p.m. Another such mechanism involves the separation between regeneration of alkalinity and total carbon that occurs in the oceans because of the fact that organic carbon is regenerated primarily in the upper ocean whereas CaCO3 is dissolved primarily in the deep ocean. The extent of separation depends on the rate of CaCO3 formation at the surface against the rate of upward mixing of deep waters. This mechanism can lead to atmospheric values in excess of 20000 p.p.m., although values greater than 1100 p.p.m. are unlikely because calcareous organisms would have difficulty surviving in the undersaturated surface waters that develop at this point. A three-dimensional model that is being developed to further study these and other problems provides illustrations of them and also suggests the possibility that there is a long-lived form of non-sinking carbon playing a major role in carbon cycling.