J Sterne

Prognostic importance of initial response in HIV-1 infected patients starting potent antiretroviral therapy: analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND We examined whether the initial virological and immunological response to highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) is prognostic in patients with HIV-1 who start HAART. METHODS We analysed 13 cohort studies from Europe and North America including 9323 adult treatment-naive patients who were starting HAART with a combination of at least three drugs. We modelled clinical progression from month 6 after starting HAART, taking into account CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA measured at baseline and 6 months. FINDINGS During 13408 years of follow-up 152 patients died and 874 developed AIDS or died. Compared with patients who had a 6-month CD4 count of fewer than 25 cells/microL, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS or death were 0.55 (95%CI 0.32-0.96) for 25-49 cells/microL, 0.62 (0.40-0.96) for 50-99 cells/microL, 0.42 (0.28-0.64) for 100-199 cells/microL, 0.25 (0.16-0.38) for 200-349 cells/microL, and 0.18 (0.11-0.29) for 350 or more cells/microL at 6 months. Compared with patients who had a 6-month HIV-1 RNA of 100000 copies/mL or greater, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS or death were 0.59 (0.41-0.86) for 10000-99999 copies/mL, 0.42 (0.29-0.61) for 500-9999 copies/mL, and 0.29 (0.21-0.39) for 6-month HIV-1 RNA of 500 copies/mL or fewer. Baseline CD4 and HIV-1 RNA were not associated with progression after controlling for 6-month concentrations. The probability of progression at 3 years ranged from 2.4% in the patients in the lowest-risk stratum to 83% in patients in the highest-risk stratum. INTERPRETATION At 6 months after starting HAART, the current CD4 cell count and viral load, but not values at baseline, are strongly associated with subsequent disease progression. Our findings should inform guidelines on when to modify HAART.

HIV treatment response and prognosis in Europe and North America in the first decade of highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis.

BACKGROUND Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for the treatment of HIV infection was introduced a decade ago. We aimed to examine trends in the characteristics of patients starting HAART in Europe and North America, and their treatment response and short-term prognosis. METHODS We analysed data from 22,217 treatment-naive HIV-1-infected adults who had started HAART and were followed up in one of 12 cohort studies. The probability of reaching 500 or less HIV-1 RNA copies per mL by 6 months, and the change in CD4 cell counts, were analysed for patients starting HAART in 1995-96, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002-03. The primary endpoints were the hazard ratios for AIDS and for death from all causes in the first year of HAART, which were estimated using Cox regression. RESULTS The proportion of heterosexually infected patients increased from 20% in 1995-96 to 47% in 2002-03, and the proportion of women from 16% to 32%. The median CD4 cell count when starting HAART increased from 170 cells per muL in 1995-96 to 269 cells per muL in 1998 but then decreased to around 200 cells per muL. In 1995-96, 58% achieved HIV-1 RNA of 500 copies per mL or less by 6 months compared with 83% in 2002-03. Compared with 1998, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS were 1.07 (95% CI 0.84-1.36) in 1995-96 and 1.35 (1.06-1.71) in 2002-03. Corresponding figures for death were 0.87 (0.56-1.36) and 0.96 (0.61-1.51). INTERPRETATION Virological response after starting HAART improved over calendar years, but such improvement has not translated into a decrease in mortality.

Incidence of tuberculosis among HIV-Infected patients receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy in Europe and North America

BACKGROUND We obtained estimates of the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) among patients receiving HAART and identified determinants of the incidence. METHODS We analyzed the incidence of TB during the first 3 years after initiation of HAART among 17,142 treatment-naive, AIDS-free persons starting HAART who were enrolled in 12 cohorts from Europe and North America. We used univariable and multivariable Poisson regression models to identify factors associated with the incidence. RESULTS During the first 3 years (36,906 person-years), 173 patients developed TB (incidence, 4.69 cases per 1000 person-years). In multivariable analysis, the incidence rate was lower for men who have sex with men, compared with injection drug users (relative rate, 2.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.51-4.01), heterosexuals (relative rate, 2.42; 95% CI, 1.64-3.59), those with other suspected modes of transmission (relative rate, 1.66; 95% CI, 0.91-3.06), and those with a higher CD4+ count at the time of HAART initiation (relative rate per log2 cells/microL, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.84-0.91). During 28,846 person-years of follow-up after the first 6 months of HAART, 88 patients developed TB (incidence, 3.1 cases per 1000 person-years of follow-up). In multivariable analyses, a low baseline CD4+ count (relative rate per log2 cells/microL, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.83-0.96), 6-month CD4+ count (relative rate per log2 cells/microL, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.81-0.99), and a 6-month HIV RNA level >400 copies/mL (relative rate, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.33-3.67) were significantly associated with the risk of acquiring TB after 6 months of HAART. CONCLUSION The level of immunodeficiency at which HAART is initiated and the response to HAART are important determinants of the risk of TB. However, this risk remains appreciable even among those with a good response to HAART, suggesting that other interventions may be needed to control the TB epidemic in the HIV-infected population.

Durability of first ART regimen and risk factors for modification, interruption or death in HIV-positive patients starting ART in Europe and North America 2002-2009.

Objectives:To estimate the incidence of and risk factors for modifications to first antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen, treatment interruption and death. Methods:A total of 21 801 patients from 18 cohorts in Europe and North America starting ART on regimens including at least two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and boosted protease inhibitor or non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor during 2002–2009 were included. Incidence of modifications (change of drug class, substitution/addition within class, or switch to nonstandard regimen), interruption or death and associations with patient characteristics were estimated using competing-risks methods. Results:During median 28 months follow-up, 8786 (40.3%) patients modified first ART, 2346 (10.8%) interrupted and 427 (2.0%) died before changing regimen. Three-year cumulative percentages of modification, interruption and death were 47, 12 and 2%, respectively. After adjustment, rates of interruption were highest for IDUs and lowest for MSM, and higher for patients starting ART with CD4 cell count above 350 cells/&mgr;l than other patients. Compared to efavirenz, patients on lopinavir and other protease inhibitors had higher rates of modification and interruption, on atazanavir had lower rates of class change, and on nevirapine higher rates of interruption. Those on tenofovir/emtricitabine backbone had lowest rates of substitutions and switches to nonstandard regimen, and on abacavir/lamivudine lowest rates of interruption. Rates of substitution and switches to nonstandard regimen were lower in 2006–2009. Conclusion:Rates of modification and interruption were high, particularly in the first year of ART. Decreased rates of substitutions or switches to nonstandard regimen in recent years may be linked to greater use of well tolerated once-daily drugs.

The effect of injecting drug use history on disease progression and death among HIV-positive individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy: collaborative cohort analysis

We examined whether determinants of disease progression and causes of death differ between injecting drug users (IDUs) and non‐IDUs who initiate combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).

Long-term trends in CD4 cell counts and impact of viral failure in individuals starting antiretroviral therapy: UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) study

The aim of the study was to describe trends in CD4 cell counts in HIV‐infected patients after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), according to CD4 cell count at initiation (baseline), and to quantify the implications of virological failure for these trends.

The effect of injecting drug use history on disease progression and death among HIV-positive individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy: collaborative cohort analysis: HIV prognosis in treated IDUs

We examined whether determinants of disease progression and causes of death differ between injecting drug users (IDUs) and non‐IDUs who initiate combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).

Long-term trends in CD4 cell counts and impact of viral failure in individuals starting antiretroviral therapy: UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) study: Trends in CD4 in ART-treated individuals

The aim of the study was to describe trends in CD4 cell counts in HIV‐infected patients after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), according to CD4 cell count at initiation (baseline), and to quantify the implications of virological failure for these trends.