Jack A. Jackson

R&D concept decision analysis: Using alternate futures for sensitivity analysis

The time from identification of new research and development (R&D) concepts to deployment as military weapon systems is 10–25 years. Significant uncertainties exist about future political military states of the world and the value of these future systems may depend on which state(s) of the world eventually occur. Multi-objective decision analysis can be used to evaluate the future contribution of R&D concepts to military objectives. Scenarios (or alternate futures) are a key decision analysis technique to examine the uncertain future. The standard approach to uncertainty is to identify mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive outcomes and assign probabilities to each outcome. Unfortunately, the descriptions of possible futures are seldom collectively exhaustive. A sensitivity analysis approach is developed using different multi-objective weights for each of several alternate futures. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the R&D concepts that are the most robust across the alternate futures. This sensitivity analysis approach has been successfully used on two major studies, SPACECAST 2020 and Air Force 2025. Copyright

Safety Risk Analysis of an Innovative Environmental Technology

The authors describe a decision and risk analysis performed for the cleanup of a large Department of Energy mixed-waste subsurface disposal area governed by the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). In a previous study, the authors worked with the site decision makers, state regulators, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regional regulators to develop a CERCLA-based multiobjective decision analysis value model and used the model to perform a screening analysis of 28 remedial alternatives. The analysis results identified an innovative technology, in situ vitrification, with high effectiveness versus cost. Since this technology had not been used on this scale before, the major uncertainties were contaminant migration and pressure buildup. Pressure buildup was a safety concern due to the potential risks to worker safety. With the help of environmental technology experts remedial alternative changes were identified to mitigate the concerns about contaminant migration and pressure buildup. The analysis results showed that the probability of an event with a risk to worker safety had been significantly reduced. Based on these results, site decision makers have refocused their test program to examine in situ vitrification and have continued the use of the CERCLA-based decision analysis methodology to analyze remedial alternatives.

A Comparative Analysis of Hazardous Waste Remediation Alternatives

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has 136 contaminated nuclear-processing sites requiring remediation. Exploiting new remediation techniques will be critical to containing and treating this hazardous waste and to minimizing the estimated multibillion-dollar costs of cleanup. We combined system simulation, facility layout, stochastic life-cycle cost estimation, linear optimization, and various decision analysis techniques in a nine-month effort to give decision makers in the DOE realistic, flexible, and useful information to guide them in making decisions on Superfund remediation technology worth billions. A small team of students and instructors from the Air Force Institute of Technology used the majority of the techniques and tools taught at the institute to tackle this complex and important decision problem.

A value focused model for a C4 network

This effort provides a quantitative method that incorporates the objectives of a C4I system. A systematic methodology, which incorporates expert opinion and operational necessities, is provided to evaluate communications networks. While the specific weighting and measures for a value hierarchy will depend upon the operational environment and the decision makers, a framework to develop such a hierarchy is provided. The approach produced graphical displays that provide a great deal of insight into the tradeoffs which could be made and the driving factors behind the system scores. Copyright

Using response surface methodology to link force structure budgets to campaign objectives

Effective and timely execution of the Department of Defense’s (DoD) Program Objective Memorandum (POM) and Joint Warfare Capability Assessment (JWCA) process requires objective measures of how Air Force programs support the Defense Planning Guidance (DPG) and the Chairman’s Program Assessment (CPA). Using Factor Analysis (FA) and Response Surface Methodology (RSM), this paper presents a modeling approach that provides metrics which link expenditures to campaign level measures of outcome. Specifically, various alternative force structures are evaluated with regard to their combat capability as measured in terms of theater level campaign objectives (CO).

Simulation and optimization of a new waste remediation process

In the development of large scale technologically advanced projects and procedures, it is often necessary to project the life cycle cost elements of a full production system based upon test results from a much smaller prototype facility. This paper describes an application of simulation to characterize equipment and facilities for a large-scale vitrification plant, based upon available results, expert opinion, and classical cost estimating techniques. This study improves the understanding of the vitrification process and reduced cost uncertainties. Further, it details how optimization was incorporated in modeling the minimum additive waste stabilization blending process to reduce the cost of additives and provide a more rigorous estimate of overall system cost.

Use of statistical process control for surveillance of pulmonary dysfunction in groups in the workplace

Workplace surveillance is an essential feature of an effective occupational health program. Unfortunately, many health care organizations are beginning to collect large quantities of clinical information without much thought to subsequent application. In this paper, we propose a screening technique to help manage this situation. Specifically, we advocate “control charts for fraction non‐conforming” for use in the medical surveillance of work areas. A military installation in the mid‐western United States with 63 work areas is analyzed using up to seven years worth of spirometry data. Based on the results of 6 separate tests, a classification of normal or abnormal was made for each individual and the percent of abnormalities by area and year was calculated. The results were analyzed via control charts and contrasted to a preset percentage method. Cigarette smoking was then controlled for in the analysis to account for abnormalities that may be occupationally related versus personal habits. We demonstrate the utility of control charts for the compact display of surveillance data and show how it can aid in the analysis of an extremely complex health care concern. A recommendation is made for managing a surveillance program using spirometry and control charts and supported by follow‐on investigation of two areas flagged as abnormal by the procedure.

Issues in using a DIS facility in analysis

This paper analyzes the future prospects for the use of the Theater Battle Arena (TBA) specifically, and Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS) facilities in general, in conducting analysis for senior Air Force leadership. The desire is to broaden the use of the TBA in the arena of combat analysis. We believe that such a study would benefit other participants in the Advanced Distributed Simulation (ADS) environment as they plan, develop, construct, and upgrade facilities that take advantage of the still emerging ADS technology.