Jacob Bercovitch

The Nature of the Dispute and the Effectiveness of International Mediation

The literature on mediation focuses largely on experimental laboratory studies or descriptions of single cases. This article goes beyond such approaches by analyzing systematically how dispute characteristics affect mediation outcomes. A theoretical framework for studying mediation behavior is developed and its central variables are evaluated against the mediation patterns of 97 international disputes in the postwar period. Using multivariate analysis and loglinear methods, the results indicate that dispute features such as fatalities, complexity, nature of the issue, and duration of dispute are most predictive of mediation outcomes. The authors use those results to specify a causal model that explains the data and to consider how best to evaluate the fit of alternative models of mediation to their data.

Who Mediates? : The Political Economy of International Conflict Management

Studies on international mediation have traditionally focused on the effectiveness of international efforts to settle or resolve militarized conflicts. In this article, we start from a different perspective and examine the identity of mediators and the factors determining the choice of mediators. We build an integrative theoretical framework to explain the number of mediation mandates an international actor receives. The hypotheses we derive are subsequently tested in a multivariate event count model using an original dataset on international mediation from 1950 to 1990. The results obtained from Poisson and negative binomial regressions disconfirm the assertion that the effectiveness of a mediator influences the number of mandates it receives. The most important structural force on the international mediation market seems to be the hegemonic status of the USA. The analysis further demonstrates that international conflict management is largely, but not exclusively, restricted to the permanent members of the Security Council of the UN. As the theoretical framework suggests, ideological factors, such as the neutrality of the mediator, play a less significant role on the market for mediation. Democracies equally are not significantly more active than autocracies in the management of international conflicts.

Is There Method in the Madness of Mediation? Some Lessons for Mediators from Quantitative Studies of Mediation

Key mediation attributes, such as mediating actors, the strategy they choose, and previous mediation experiences, are widely thought to influence the nature of a conflict management outcome. But how and when these features shape outcomes is not a straightforward matter, and a standard analysis of these factors does not lead to their widely anticipated results. Why? We develop a new analytical framework that argues that a disputes intensity alters the conflict management processes. Furthermore, in order to observe this variation, we also need to expand the traditional, dichotomous notion of conflict management outcomes (success or failure) to include a fuller range of observed results. Using the most recent International Conflict Management data set and our new analytical framework, we analyze the effect on conflict management outcome of mediator (a) identity, (b) strategy and (c) history. We find that directive strategies and international mediators are effective in resolving high intensity conflicts, procedural strategies and regional mediators are effective in resolving low intensity conflicts, and that mediation history always affects resolution. Our results have implications for both the study and practice of international dispute mediation.

The Structure and Diversity of Mediation in International Relations

In his keynote address to the Annual Conference of the International Association of Conflict Management in 1990, Morton Deutsch, truly one of the founding fathers of conflict studies, highlighted five major themes which have dominated the discipline in the last twenty-five years or so.1 The study of mediation is one of the five themes. Given the widespread use of mediation in virtually every area of human interaction, and its increasing importance in international relations, it is not surprising that mediation should figure so prominently in our research. What might, perhaps, seem as somewhat surprising is that after so many years, and a plethora of studies, there is still considerable disagreement amongst scholars, and a state of confusion amongst practitioners, as to what constitutes an effective mediation and how to evaluate it. Hopefully what follows will go some way toward rectifying this situation.

Introducing the Civil Wars Mediation (CWM) dataset

Mediation is one of the few mechanisms the international community can deploy that will affect civil wars. This article introduces the dataset on mediation in civil wars – termed the Civil War Mediation (CWM) dataset. This is the first dataset to focus solely on civil war mediation. These data contribute to the present state of quantitative research on mediation in three important respects: the data are collected for the period of 1946–2004, are organized by mediation cases and by civil war episode, and provide detailed information about mediation incidences. The article first presents a few variables included in the dataset that are motivated by theoretical arguments from the literature. After a presentation of summary statistics, attention is turned to using the CWM data to explore the determinants of mediation. Mediation is shown to be a function of war type (territorial and internationalized wars are more likely to be mediated), war duration (the longer the war the higher the probability of mediation), supply-side factors (the number of democracies in the world and the global polity average), and stratum (subsequent wars are less likely to be mediated). Battle-related deaths also seem to increase the chances of mediation, though the relationship is only weakly significant. The article concludes with suggestions for future research that can benefit from the dataset.

International Mediation: A Study of the Incidence, Strategies and Conditions of Successful Outcomes

Bercovitch, J. International Mediation: A Study of the Incidence, Strategies and Conditions of Successful Outcomes. Cooperation and Conflict, XXI, 1986, 155-168. This paper analyses the role and relevance of mediation in international disputes. Mediation is placed within the general structure of conflict management and its specific characteristics are discussed. Adopting a systematic approach, the paper looks at the incidence of international mediation and offers a new case-list of 72 international disputes since 1945. Of these, 44 disputes were mediated, some more than once, giving a total of 210 mediation cases. Three basic conditions are found to affect the likelihood of a successful outcome. These are (a) the identity of the parties, (b) the nature of the dispute, and (c) the characteristics of a mediator. These conditions are evaluated, using cross-tabulation and tests of significance, to determine which has the greatest impact on mediation outcomes.

Conflict management of enduring rivalries: The frequency, timing, and short‐term impact of mediation

In this study, we explore the frequency, timing, and impact of a particular form of conflict management—namely, mediation—and we do so in the dangerous context of international militarized rivalries over the period 1816–1992. We wish to explore how often does mediation actually occur in the context of enduring rivalries and understand at what phase mediation efforts are undertaken (if indeed they are made at all). Are mediation efforts only made in the most severe rivalries, or are they attempted in rivalries before they become enduring? At what stage in the rivalry is mediation attempted, and how does this fit in with the prescriptions derived from the extensive literature on timing and mediation success? Beyond a description of mediation in the context of rivalries, we wish to assess its impact on the short‐term dynamics of rivalries. Do mediation efforts make a difference? Do they help to postpone the onset of violence, lessen conflict severity, or prevent a war? The results indicated that enduring riv...

Religion and Mediation: The Role of Faith-Based Actors in International Conflict Resolution

Religion has often been thought of as playing a crucial role in generating conflicts, particularly internal ones. While it may often be a source of conflict, its role in the overall peace process has all too often been overlooked. In this paper we emphasize the importance of religion and religious actors in the process of mediation. We examine the general conditions that facilitate mediation in international relations and assess how much these hold true in the case of faith-based mediation. We find that aspects such as legitimacy and leverage have a major impact on the success or failure of mediation. We examine how these factors manifest themselves in the case of religious mediators, and we show that legitimacy and leverage are still crucial to successful mediation but have a very different meaning and content in the case of religious actors. We explore the consequences of these differences and explain how religious mediation may work best in tandem with the more traditional forms of mediation.

Managing Ethnic Civil Wars: Assessing the Determinants of Successful Mediation

This paper looks at how violent ethnic conflicts are managed. The paper separates ethnic civil wars from the more general class of ethnic conflicts. More specifically, we examine these conflicts, and seek to understand the extent to which mediation can play an effective role in managing such conflicts, and which factors have the most impact on its performance and effectiveness. We set up a theoretical framework from which we derive several propositions on mediation effectiveness. These are analyzed using an original data set of over 900 mediation cases in ethnic civil wars. The analysis suggests that the use of a neutral mediation site and initiation by both parties in the war each enhance the likelihood of mediation success. Conflict intensity, third-party initiation and superpower mediation all decrease the likelihood of success. Ethnic civil wars over issues of secessionism and autonomy are also found to be more difficult to mediate than ethnic civil wars over issues of religion.

Mediation in Internationalized Ethnic Conflicts: Assessing the Determinants of a Successful Process

This article examines how internationalized ethnic conflicts, traditionally the most difficult form of conflict, can be managed and resolved. The case is made that mediation is particularly relevant in such contexts of intractable conflicts. The paper develops a framework of mediation and presents the significant features that may affect its outcome by examining an original data set on international mediation events. The findings from an analysis of 869 cases of mediation attempts in internationalized ethnic conflicts suggest that directive mediation strategies increase the probability of successful conflict management. Mediator experience also has a positive impact on successful management. Prolonged mediation and repeated efforts by the same mediator have a negative effect on the chances of a successful outcome.