Karl DeRouen

Science from the periphery: Collaboration, networks and 'Periphery Effects' in the citation of New Zealand Crown Research Institutes articles, 1995-2000

While collaboration is associated with higher article citation rates, a body of research has suggested that this is, in part, related to the access to a larger social network and the increased visibility of research this entails, rather than simply a reflection of greater quality. We examine the role of networks in article citation rates by investigating article publication by the nine New Zealand Government-owned Crown Research Institutes (CRIs), drawing on the Science Citation Index. We analyse an aggregate data set of all CRI publications with duplicates removed, and, in addition, investigate each CRI. We find that a greater number of authors, countries and institutions involved in co-publication increases expected citation rates, although there are some differences between the CRIs. However, the type of co-publication affects the expected citation rates. We discover a periphery effect where greater levels of co-publication with domestic institutions decreases expected citation rates. We conclude that scientists working on the periphery looking to increase the visibility of their research should strive to link their research to the international research community, particularly through co-publication with international authors.

Enduring Internal Rivalries: A New Framework for the Study of Civil War

The enduring rivalry (ER) framework was developed for studying the long-term dynamics of serious conflicts between pairs of states. Here, the logic and structure of that framework is applied to civil wars. Many civil wars are very long and recur often. A new way of thinking of about these long and seemingly interminable internal conflicts emphasizes a dyadic perspective and enduring internal rivalry (EIR). Within this framework, the article demonstrates empirically that EIRs are different from other wars. This study offers a definition and an initial dataset of EIRs. Working from the Uppsala Conflict Termination Dataset, we find that about 76% of all civil war years from 1946 to 2004 took place in the context of EIRs. Several statistical models are tested to demonstrate the empirical validity of the EIR construct, while controlling for state capacity, democracy, type of termination, military coups, war intensity, and duration of war. The logit results provide evidence that civil wars involving EIRs are more likely to recur, and the hazard analysis results reveal that EIRs are followed by shorter peace spells. The early phases of EIRs are followed by relatively shorter peace spells, thus indicating a `locking in period that scholars have identified in international rivalries. Military victories lead to longer peace, but few EIRs are terminated with military outcomes. The hazard models employed here employ repeat-event techniques, since many civil wars exhibit patterns of recurrence. Implications of these results for conflict management are offered.

Israeli Military Actions and Internalization-externalization Processes

As a manifestation of its self-reliance doctrine, the state of Israel has acted unilaterally in the military realm throughout its history. Several scholars have also linked Israeli actions to elections and the economy in the context of diversionary theory. Hypotheses derived from earlier empirical work on internalization-externalization linkages and additional causal hypotheses are tested to enhance diversionary theory. Vector autoregression (VAR) is used to relax causal assumptions and test basic relationships in the Israeli case from 1948 to 1998. Findings suggest that Israel responds militarily to Arab military actions and domestic political protests. However, Israeli actions also lead to more domestic protests. The potential for this reciprocal relationship is typically ignored in the current diversionary research program. Arab military actions appear to be driven by Israeli military actions and seem to decrease in response to Israeli actions.

The Dynamics of Diversion: The Domestic Implications of Presidential Use of Force

Several studies report evidence of diversionary behavior by presidents, while others dispute findings that suggest domestic politics are part of the use of force decision calculus. We argue that previous studies of U.S. force short of war have failed to articulate what diversion actually means. We approach this important debate from a perspective that brings to bear presidential agenda-setting theory. Rather than treating the use of force solely as a dependent variable, we assess whether the use of force diverts attention by modeling the percent of the American public identifying the economy as the nations most important problem. We also include presidential approval in the model. We treat the public opinion measures as endogenous variables that may or may not affect the decision to use force. We employ Vector Autoregression (VAR) methods to evaluate the causal direction of force and public opinion while controlling for the state of the economy and war. VAR is a multiple-lagged time-series approach that allows us to test a variety of hypotheses derived from diversionary and agenda-setting theory. Our results indicate that uses of force by the president have a notable agenda-setting effect, shifting public attention away from the economy. The shift in attention also causes a long-term effect on the presidents public-approval rating.

Managing Ethnic Civil Wars: Assessing the Determinants of Successful Mediation

This paper looks at how violent ethnic conflicts are managed. The paper separates ethnic civil wars from the more general class of ethnic conflicts. More specifically, we examine these conflicts, and seek to understand the extent to which mediation can play an effective role in managing such conflicts, and which factors have the most impact on its performance and effectiveness. We set up a theoretical framework from which we derive several propositions on mediation effectiveness. These are analyzed using an original data set of over 900 mediation cases in ethnic civil wars. The analysis suggests that the use of a neutral mediation site and initiation by both parties in the war each enhance the likelihood of mediation success. Conflict intensity, third-party initiation and superpower mediation all decrease the likelihood of success. Ethnic civil wars over issues of secessionism and autonomy are also found to be more difficult to mediate than ethnic civil wars over issues of religion.

Initial Crisis Reaction and Poliheuristic Theory

Poliheuristic (PH) theory models foreign policy decisions using a two-stage process. The first step eliminates alternatives on the basis of a simplifying heuristic. The second step involves a selection from amongthe remaining alternatives and can employ a more rational and compensatory means of processing information. The PH model posits that strategic/realist factors are more important in the second step of the process. The model is tested for the years 1918 to 1994, using crisis actors from the International Crisis Behavior data set. Results show that domestic political loss has a negative impact on the use of violence in response to a crisis trigger. Contiguity, joint democracy, and trigger are also significant in the expected directions. Relative capabilities have a positive impact, and enduring rivals do not appear more likely to use violence against each other as a first response in a crisis.

Mediation in Internationalized Ethnic Conflicts: Assessing the Determinants of a Successful Process

This article examines how internationalized ethnic conflicts, traditionally the most difficult form of conflict, can be managed and resolved. The case is made that mediation is particularly relevant in such contexts of intractable conflicts. The paper develops a framework of mediation and presents the significant features that may affect its outcome by examining an original data set on international mediation events. The findings from an analysis of 869 cases of mediation attempts in internationalized ethnic conflicts suggest that directive mediation strategies increase the probability of successful conflict management. Mediator experience also has a positive impact on successful management. Prolonged mediation and repeated efforts by the same mediator have a negative effect on the chances of a successful outcome.

Putting the Numbers to Work: Implications for Violence Prevention*

By analysing international crisis behaviour from 1918 to 1994, this study seeks a better understanding of the factors that make interstate and intrastate crises endure and escalate into violence. Observations are crisis actors drawn from the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) dataset. The analysis indicates that an actor is more likely to use violence in a crisis if there is social unrest in that country; if it is contiguous to its main adversary in the crisis; if there is a violent trigger to the crisis; if there is an ethnic dimension to the crisis; and if the crisis is a long one. If the principal adversaries in a dyad are democratic or the actor is democratic, the likelihood of the use of violence is significantly reduced. Crises tend to be longer when there is an ethnic component and if there is violence. Taken together, the two analyses link crisis duration and outbreak of violence. Ethnicity and unrest have both direct and indirect effects on violence. The findings have implications for conflict prevention in two ways. If the factors found to be predictors of an escalation to violence are present during a crisis, then this provides an important early warning for agencies that the outbreak of violence is likely. In particular, early and decisive intervention, assuming it is successful, may be an effective method of preventing escalation to violence. Even in the absence of a crisis, the existence of such factors can be addressed through structural prevention, particularly through the development of democratic and other institutions.

Arab-Israeli Defense Spending and Economic Growth

Research on the nexus between defense spending and economic growth in the Third World has generated discrepant findings. This debate takes on added relevance in the wake of recent substantive moves toward peace in the Middle East. This study considers the relationship between defense spending and economic growth over time in the Middle East. It also addresses the externality effects defense spending has on the economies. Contextual factors such as aims production and regime type of Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria are put forth as possible explanations of the disparate findings to date. The findings suggest that the potential for peace dividends in Egypt and Syria is contingent upon increases in allocations to non-defense government spending. For Israel defense cuts alone may actually hinder growth in the short run. In Jordan, the defense sector is shown to be surprisingly productive and therefore any potential peace dividend must rely upon cooperative regional ventures, and not defense cuts.

A Nested Game Approach to Political and Economic Liberalization in Democratizing States: The Case of South Korea

South Korea enjoyed high rates of economic growth until the mid-1990s. However in mid-1997 the country went into a severe economic crisis which ultimately resulted in a request for an IMF bailout. Leading up to the crisis, the government had embarked upon democratic liberalization but not much economic liberalization. This research explores why the government would lay the foundation for political reform without creating institutions capable of imposing economic reform on the politically powerful business sector. The absence of such institutions put the government in a position where it could not respond to the emerging economic crisis. The governments inability to act eroded its own position of power and governance. From this perspective, the governments inattention to economic reform appears irrational as it led to a weakening of its own position. We build a model of political and economic liberalization showing that the government was engaged in nested games (i.e., games in multiple arenas) with the political opposition, the labor unions, and the powerful business sector. We develop an argument that strong, antiliberal economic actors create incentive for the government in a democratizing state to refrain from economic liberalization, even while moving forward with democratic liberalization.