Jacob S. Ivan

Spatially Explicit Power Analyses for Occupancy‐Based Monitoring of Wolverine in the U.S. Rocky Mountains

Conservation scientists and resource managers often have to design monitoring programs for species that are rare or patchily distributed across large landscapes. Such programs are frequently expensive and seldom can be conducted by one entity. It is essential that a prospective power analysis be undertaken to ensure stated monitoring goals are feasible. We developed a spatially based simulation program that accounts for natural history, habitat use, and sampling scheme to investigate the power of monitoring protocols to detect trends in population abundance over time with occupancy-based methods. We analyzed monitoring schemes with different sampling efforts for wolverine (Gulo gulo) populations in 2 areas of the U.S. Rocky Mountains. The relation between occupancy and abundance was nonlinear and depended on landscape, population size, and movement parameters. With current estimates for population size and detection probability in the northern U.S. Rockies, most sampling schemes were only able to detect large declines in abundance in the simulations (i.e., 50% decline over 10 years). For small populations reestablishing in the Southern Rockies, occupancy-based methods had enough power to detect population trends only when populations were increasing dramatically (e.g., doubling or tripling in 10 years), regardless of sampling effort. In general, increasing the number of cells sampled or the per-visit detection probability had a much greater effect on power than the number of visits conducted during a survey. Although our results are specific to wolverines, this approach could easily be adapted to other territorial species.

A functional model for characterizing long‐distance movement behaviour

Summary 1. Advancements in wildlife telemetry techniques have made it possible to collect large data sets of highly accurate animal locations at a fine temporal resolution. These data sets have prompted the development of a number of statistical methodologies for modelling animal movement. 2. Telemetry data sets are often collected for purposes other than fine-scale movement analysis. These data sets may differ substantially from those that are collected with technologies suitable for fine-scale movement modelling and may consist of locations that are irregular in time, are temporally coarse or have large measurement error. These data sets are time-consuming and costly to collect but may still provide valuable information about movement behaviour. 3. We developed a Bayesian movement model that accounts for error from multiple data sources as well as movement behaviour at different temporal scales. The Bayesian framework allows us to calculate derived quantities that describe temporally varying movement behaviour, such as residence time, speed and persistence in direction. The model is flexible, easy to implement and computationally efficient. 4. We apply this model to data from Colorado Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) and use derived quantities to identify changes in movement behaviour.

Cpw Photo Warehouse: a custom database to facilitate archiving, identifying, summarizing and managing photo data collected from camera traps

Summary Contemporary methods for sampling wildlife populations include the use of remotely triggered wildlife cameras (i.e., camera traps). Such methods often result in the collection of hundreds of thousands of photos that must be identified, archived, and transformed into data formats required for statistical analyses. Cpw Photo Warehouse is a freely available software based in Microsoft Access® that has been customized for this purpose using Visual Basic® for Applications (VBA) code. Users navigate a series of point-and-click menu items that allow them to input information from camera deployments, automatically import photos (and image data stored within the photos) related to those deployments, and store data within a relational database. Images are seamlessly incorporated into the database windows, but are stored separately from the database. The database includes menu options that (i) facilitate identification of species within the images, (ii) allow users to view and filter any subset of the databased on study area, species, season, etc., and (iii) produce input files for common analyses such as occupancy, abundance, density and activity patterns using Programs mark, presence, density and the r packages ‘secr’ and ‘overlap’. Our database makes explicit use of multiple observers, which greatly enhances the efficiency and accuracy with which a large number of photos can be identified. Modular subsets of the data can be distributed to an unlimited number of observers on or off site for identification. Modules are then re-incorporated into the database using a custom import function.

rSPACE: Spatially based power analysis for conservation and ecology

Summary Power analysis is an important step in designing effective monitoring programs to detect trends in plant or animal populations. Although project goals often focus on detecting changes in population abundance, logistical constraints may require data collection on population indices, such as detection/non-detection data for occupancy estimation. We describe the open-source R package, rSPACE, for implementing a spatially based power analysis for designing monitoring programs. This method incorporates information on species biology and habitat to parameterize a spatially explicit population simulation. A sampling design can then be implemented to create replicate encounter histories which are subsampled and analysed to estimate the power of the monitoring program to detect changes in population abundance over time, using occupancy as a surrogate. The proposed method and software are demonstrated with an analysis of wolverine monitoring in a U.S. Northern Rocky Mountain landscape. The package will be of use to ecologists interested in evaluating objectives and performance of monitoring programs.

Large‐scale movement behavior in a reintroduced predator population

Understanding movement behavior and identifying areas of landscape connectivity is critical for the conservation of many species. However, collecting fine-scale movement data can be prohibitively time consuming and costly, especially for rare or endangered species, whereas existing data sets may provide the best available information on animal movement. Contemporary movement models may not be an option for modeling existing data due to low temporal resolution and large or unusual error structures, but inference can still be obtained using a functional movement modeling approach. We use a functional movement model to perform a population-level analysis of telemetry data collected during the reintroduction of Canada lynx to Colorado. Little is known about southern lynx populations compared to those in Canada and Alaska, and inference is often limited to a few individuals due to their low densities. Our analysis of a population of Canada lynx fills significant gaps in the knowledge of Canada lynx behavior at the southern edge of its historical range. We analyzed functions of individual-level movement paths, such as speed, residence time, and tortuosity, and identified a region of connectivity that extended north from the San Juan Mountains, along the continental divide, and terminated in Wyoming at the northern edge of the Southern Rocky Mountains. Individuals were able to traverse large distances across non-boreal habitat, including exploratory movements to the Greater Yellowstone area and beyond. We found evidence for an effect of seasonality and breeding status on many of the movement quantities and documented a potential reintroduction effect. Our findings provide the first analysis of Canada lynx movement in Colorado and substantially augment the information available for conservation and management decisions. The functional movement framework can be extended to other species and demonstrates that information on movement behavior can be obtained using existing data sets. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Predatory Behavior is Primary Predictor of Movement of Wildland-Urban Cougars

While many species have suffered from the detrimental impacts of increasing human population growth, some species, such as cougars (Puma concolor), have been observed using human-modified landscapes. However, human-modified habitat can be a source of both increased risk and increased food availability, particularly for large carnivores. Assessing preferential use of the landscape is important for managing wildlife and can be particularly useful in transitional habitats, such as at the wildland-urban interface. Preferential use is often evaluated using resource selection functions (RSFs), but RSFs do not adequately account for the habitat available to an individual at a given time and may mask conflict or avoidance behavior. Contemporary approaches to incorporate landscape availability into the assessment of habitat preference include spatio-temporal point process models, step-selection functions, and continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) models; in contrast with the other methods, the CTMC model allows for explicit inference on animal movement. We used the CTMC framework to model speed and directionality of movement by a population of cougars inhabiting the Front Range of Colorado, U.S.A., an area exhibiting rapid population growth and increased recreational use, as a function of individual variation and time-varying responses to landscape covariates. The time-varying framework allowed us to detect temporal variability that would be masked in a generalized linear model. We found evidence for individual- and daily temporal-variability in cougar response to landscape characteristics. Distance to nearest kill site emerged as the most important driver of movement at a population-level. We also detected seasonal differences in average response to elevation, heat loading, and distance to roads. Motility was also a function of amount of development, with cougars moving faster in developed areas than in undeveloped areas.

Machine learning to classify animal species in camera trap images: applications in ecology

Motion-activated cameras (“camera traps”) are increasingly used in ecological and management studies for remotely observing wildlife and have been regarded as among the most powerful tools for wildlife research. However, studies involving camera traps result in millions of images that need to be analyzed, typically by visually observing each image, in order to extract data that can be used in ecological analyses. We trained machine learning models using convolutional neural networks with the ResNet-18 architecture and 3,367,383 images to automatically classify wildlife species from camera trap images obtained from five states across the United States. We tested our model on an independent subset of images not seen during training from the United States and on an out-of-sample (or “out-of-distribution” in the machine learning literature) dataset of ungulate images from Canada. We also tested the ability of our model to distinguish empty images from those with animals in another out-of-sample dataset from Tanzania, containing a faunal community that was novel to the model. The trained model classified approximately 2,000 images per minute on a laptop computer with 16 gigabytes of RAM. The trained model achieved 98% accuracy at identifying species in the United States, the highest accuracy of such a model to date. Out-of-sample validation from Canada achieved 82% accuracy, and correctly identified 94% of images containing an animal in the dataset from Tanzania. We provide an R package (Machine Learning for Wildlife Image Classification; MLWIC) that allows the users to A) implement the trained model presented here and B) train their own model using classified images of wildlife from their studies. The use of machine learning to rapidly and accurately classify wildlife in camera trap images can facilitate non-invasive sampling designs in ecological studies by reducing the burden of manually analyzing images. We present an R package making these methods accessible to ecologists. We discuss the implications of this technology for ecology and considerations that should be addressed in future implementations of these methods.

Sharing the same slope: Behavioral responses of a threatened mesocarnivore to motorized and nonmotorized winter recreation

Abstract Winter recreation is a widely popular activity and is expected to increase due to changes in recreation technology and human population growth. Wildlife are frequently negatively impacted by winter recreation, however, through displacement from habitat, alteration of activity patterns, or changes in movement behavior. We studied impacts of dispersed and developed winter recreation on Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) at their southwestern range periphery in Colorado, USA. We used GPS collars to track movements of 18 adult lynx over 4 years, coupled with GPS devices that logged 2,839 unique recreation tracks to provide a detailed spatial estimate of recreation intensity. We assessed changes in lynx spatial and temporal patterns in response to motorized and nonmotorized recreation, as well as differences in movement rate and path tortuosity. We found that lynx decreased their movement rate in areas with high‐intensity back‐country skiing and snowmobiling, and adjusted their temporal patterns so that they were more active at night in areas with high‐intensity recreation. We did not find consistent evidence of spatial avoidance of recreation: lynx exhibited some avoidance of areas with motorized recreation, but selected areas in close proximity to nonmotorized recreation trails. Lynx appeared to avoid high‐intensity developed ski resorts, however, especially when recreation was most intense. We conclude that lynx in our study areas did not exhibit strong negative responses to dispersed recreation, but instead altered their behavior and temporal patterns in a nuanced response to recreation, perhaps to decrease direct interactions with recreationists. However, based on observed avoidance of developed recreation, there may be a threshold of human disturbance above which lynx cannot coexist with winter recreation.