Jacqueline Caplan-Auerbach

Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability

The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored. We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing. We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001–2050 compared with a 1951–2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5–4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times. Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.

Hydroacoustic detection of submarine landslides on Kilauea volcano

Landslides produced at the site where lava flows intothe o cean at Kilauea vo lcanohave been detected hy- droacoustically. Up to 10 landslides per day were detected by a hydrophone on the Hawaii Undersea Geo-Observatory (HUGO), located 50 km south of the entry site. The largest of these landslides, partly subaerial events known as bench collapses, were detected by a network of hydrophones in the eastern Pacific, 5000-7000 km away from the source. The landslides display a characteristic spectral signature eas- ily recognizable among other signals such as earthquake T- phases and anthropogenic noises. The fact that signals are detected at great distances suggests that hydroacoustic de- tection of landslides could be a powerful tool in tsunami monitoring and modeling efforts.

Precursory seismicity associated with frequent, large ice avalanches on Iliamna Volcano, Alaska, USA

Since 1994, at least six major (volume >10 6 m 3 ) ice and rock avalanches have occurred on Iliamna volcano, Alaska, USA. Each of the avalanches was preceded by up to 2 hours of seismicity believed to represent the initial stages of failure. Each seismic sequence begins with a series of repeating earthquakes thought to represent slip on an ice-rock interface, or between layers of ice. This stage is followed by a prolonged period of continuous ground-shaking that reflects constant slip accommodated by deformation at the glacier base. Finally the glacier fails in a large avalanche. Some of the events appear to have entrained large amounts of rock, while others comprise mostly snow and ice. Several avalanches initiated from the same source region, suggesting that this part of the volcano is particularly susceptible to failure, possibly due to the presence of nearby fumaroles. Although thermal conditions at the time of failure are not well constrained, it is likely that geothermal energy causes melting at the glacier base, promoting slip and culminating in failure. The frequent nature and predictable failure sequence of Iliamna avalanches makes the volcano an excellent laboratory for the study of ice avalanches. The prolonged nature of the seismic signal suggests that warning may one day be given for similar events occurring in populated regions.

Earthquake Triggering at Alaskan Volcanoes Following the 3 November 2002 Denali Fault Earthquake

The 3 November 2002 M W 7.9 Denali fault earthquake provided an excellent opportunity to investigate triggered earthquakes at Alaskan volcanoes. The Alaska Volcano Observatory operates short-period seismic networks on 24 historically active volcanoes in Alaska, 247–2159 km distant from the mainshock epicenter. We searched for evidence of triggered seismicity by examining the unfiltered waveforms for all stations in each volcano network for ∼1 hr after the M W 7.9 arrival time at each network and for significant increases in located earthquakes in the hours after the mainshock. We found compelling evidence for triggering only at the Katmai volcanic cluster (kvc, 720–755 km southwest of the epicenter), where small earthquakes with distinct P and S arrivals appeared within the mainshock coda at one station and a small increase in located earthquakes occurred for several hours after the mainshock. Peak dynamic stresses of ∼0.1 MPa at Augustine Volcano (560 km southwest of the epicenter) are significantly lower than those recorded in Yellowstone and Utah (>3000 km southeast of the epicenter), suggesting that strong directivity effects were at least partly responsible for the lack of triggering at Alaskan volcanoes. We describe other incidents of earthquake-induced triggering in the kvc, and outline a qualitative magnitude/distance-dependent triggering threshold. We argue that triggering results from the perturbation of magmatic-hydrothermal systems in the kvc and suggest that the comparative lack of triggering at other Alaskan volcanoes could be a result of differences in the nature of magmatic-hydrothermal systems.

Seismic constraints on caldera dynamics from the 2015 Axial Seamount eruption

Volcano monitoring goes into the deep Axial Seamount is a large and active submarine volcano along the Juan de Fuca midocean ridge off the coast of the western United States. Eruptions in 1998 and 2011 were followed by periods of magma recharge, making it an ideal location to include in the Ocean Observatories Initiative Cabled Array. Wilcock et al. present real-time seismic data from the most recent eruption in April 2015 that allow the tracking of magma before and during eruption. Nooner and Chadwick show that eruptions are predictable on the basis of deformation data. As magma pools underneath it, Axial Seamount inflates and erupts when the inflation hits a threshold. Both studies elucidate the dynamics of submarine volcanoes, which vastly outnumber their aboveground counterparts. Science, this issue p. 1395, p. 1399 Seismic data track the movement of magma during the April 2015 Axial Seamount eruption. Seismic observations in volcanically active calderas are challenging. A new cabled observatory atop Axial Seamount on the Juan de Fuca ridge allows unprecedented real-time monitoring of a submarine caldera. Beginning on 24 April 2015, the seismic network captured an eruption that culminated in explosive acoustic signals where lava erupted on the seafloor. Extensive seismic activity preceding the eruption shows that inflation is accommodated by the reactivation of an outward-dipping caldera ring fault, with strong tidal triggering indicating a critically stressed system. The ring fault accommodated deflation during the eruption and provided a pathway for a dike that propagated south and north beneath the caldera’s east wall. Once north of the caldera, the eruption stepped westward, and a dike propagated along the extensional north rift.

Seismicity and Velocity Structure of Loihi Seamount from the 1996 Earthquake Swarm

The largest earthquake swarm yet recorded on Loihi submarine volcano took place in July and August of 1996. The swarm consisted of two phases of seismic activity and was associated with the formation of a pit crater and additional faulting of Loihis summit platform. The first phase of activity was comprised of predomi- nantly high-frequency events scattered over the southern flanks of the volcano. Fol- lowing a day of seismic quiescence, the second phase of activity began, consisting of lower-frequency earthquakes with strong T-phases. The phase 2 events took place beneath Loihis summit, presumably marking the formation of the pit crater, Peles Pit. Data obtained by an ocean-bottom seismometer (OBS) on Loihi during the swarm help constrain a new velocity model for Loihi. The relocated earthquakes, combined with other characteristics of the swarm, enabled us to develop a model for the events leading up to the formation of Peles Pit that includes (1) a prolonged eruption, (2) a tectonic event beneath Loihis south flank, and (3) the drainage of a shallow magma chamber.

Recent Extreme Avalanches: Triggered by Climate Change?

On 25 September 2008, seismo meters operated by the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) registered strong ground shaking. On the basis of previous experience with such large seismic signals, AVO personnel were able to rapidly identify the seismic event as an avalanche. Two days later, an AVO overflight of Iliamna volcano, near Alaskas Cook Inlet, confirmed that a massive chunk of glacial ice and rock had broken free from its position on the upper flanks of the volcano, generating a massive avalanche that could have buried an entire town had it occurred in a more populated area. Rapidly moving rock, ice, or debris avalanches, such as the one that occurred on Iliamna, can be highly destructive and deadly. Similar events have caused the deaths of hundreds to thousands of people [Keefer and Larsen, 2007]. In general, avalanches that move more than 1 million cubic meters of material are rare. However, a remarkable series of large avalanches recently occurred in Alaska and the Caucasus, providing a new opportunity to better understand this type of hazard. All events initiated in steep mountain slopes, involved rock and significant amounts of ice, and traveled for 10–35 kilometers.

Long-term explosive degassing and debris flow activity at West Mata submarine volcano

West Mata is a 1200 m deep submarine volcano where explosive boninite eruptions were observed in 2009. The acoustic signatures from the volcanos summit eruptive vents Hades and Prometheus were recorded with an in situ (~25 m range) hydrophone during ROV dives in May 2009 and with local (~5 km range) moored hydrophones between December 2009 and August 2011. The sensors recorded low frequency (1–40 Hz), short duration explosions consistent with magma bubble bursts from Hades, and broadband, 1–5 min duration signals associated with episodes of fragmentation degassing from Prometheus. Long-term eruptive degassing signals, recorded through May 2010, preceded a several month period of declining activity. Degassing episodes were not recorded acoustically after early 2011, although quieter effusive eruption activity may have continued. Synchronous optical measurements of turbidity made between December 2009 and April 2010 indicate that turbidity maxima resulted from occasional south flank slope failures triggered by the collapse of accumulated debris during eruption intervals.

Hydroacoustic investigation of submarine landslides at West Mata volcano, Lau Basin

Submarine landslides are an important process in volcano growth yet are rarely observed and poorly understood. We show that landslides occur frequently in association with the eruption of West Mata volcano in the NE Lau Basin. These events are identifiable in hydroacoustic data recorded between ~5 and 20 km from the volcano and may be recognized in spectrograms by the weak and strong powers at specific frequencies generated by multipathing of sound waves. The summation of direct and surface-reflected arrivals causes interference patterns in the spectrum that change with time as the landslide propagates. Observed frequencies are consistent with propagation down the volcanos north flank in an area known to have experienced mass wasting in the past. These data allow us to estimate the distance traveled by West Mata landslides and show that they travel at average speeds of ~10–25 m/s.

The 2007 Nazko, British Columbia, Earthquake Sequence: Injection of Magma Deep in the Crust beneath the Anahim Volcanic Belt

On 9 October 2007, an unusual sequence of earthquakes began in central British Columbia about 20 km west of the Nazko cone, the most recent (circa 7200 yr) volcanic center in the Anahim volcanic belt. Within 25 hr, eight earthquakes of magnitude 2.3-2.9 occurred in a region where no earthquakes had previously been recorded. During the next three weeks, more than 800 microearthquakes were located (and many more detected), most at a depth of 25-31 km and within a radius of about 5 km. After about two months, almost all activity ceased. The clear P- and S-wave arrivals indicated that these were high-frequency (volcanic-tectonic) earthquakes and the b value of 1.9 that we calculated is anomalous for crustal earthquakes but consistent with volcanic-related events. Analysis of receiver functions at a station immediately above the seismicity indicated a Moho near 30 km depth. Precise relocation of the seismicity using a double-difference method suggested a horizontal migration at the rate of about Graphic, with almost all events within the lowermost crust. Neither harmonic tremor nor long-period events were observed; however, some spasmodic bursts were recorded and determined to be colocated with the earthquake hypocenters. These observations are all very similar to a deep earthquake sequence recorded beneath Lake Tahoe, California, in 2003-2004. Based on these remarkable similarities, we interpret the Nazko sequence as an indication of an injection of magma into the lower crust beneath the Anahim volcanic belt. This magma injection fractures rock, producing high-frequency, volcanic-tectonic earthquakes and spasmodic bursts.