Stephen D. Malone

Seismicity Remotely Triggered by the Magnitude 7.3 Landers, California, Earthquake

The magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 triggered a remarkably sudden and widespread increase in earthquake activity across much of the western United States. The triggered earthquakes, which occurred at distances up to 1250 kilometers (17 source dimensions) from the Landers mainshock, were confined to areas of persistent seismicity and strike-slip to normal faulting. Many of the triggered areas also are sites of geothermal and recent volcanic activity. Static stress changes calculated for elastic models of the earthquake appear to be too small to have caused the triggering. The most promising explanations involve nonlinear interactions between large dynamic strains accompanying seismic waves from the mainshock and crustal fluids (perhaps including crustal magma).

Non-volcanic tremor driven by large transient shear stresses

Non-impulsive seismic radiation or ‘tremor’ has long been observed at volcanoes and more recently around subduction zones. Although the number of observations of non-volcanic tremor is steadily increasing, the causative mechanism remains unclear. Some have attributed non-volcanic tremor to the movement of fluids, while its coincidence with geodetically observed slow-slip events at regular intervals has led others to consider slip on the plate interface as its cause. Low-frequency earthquakes in Japan, which are believed to make up at least part of non-volcanic tremor, have focal mechanisms and locations that are consistent with tremor being generated by shear slip on the subduction interface. In Cascadia, however, tremor locations appear to be more distributed in depth than in Japan, making them harder to reconcile with a plate interface shear-slip model. Here we identify bursts of tremor that radiated from the Cascadia subduction zone near Vancouver Island, Canada, during the strongest shaking from the moment magnitude Mw = 7.8, 2002 Denali, Alaska, earthquake. Tremor occurs when the Love wave displacements are to the southwest (the direction of plate convergence of the overriding plate), implying that the Love waves trigger the tremor. We show that these displacements correspond to shear stresses of approximately 40 kPa on the plate interface, which suggests that the effective stress on the plate interface is very low. These observations indicate that tremor and possibly slow slip can be instantaneously induced by shear stress increases on the subduction interface—effectively a frictional failure response to the driving stress.

Dynamics of seismogenic volcanic extrusion at Mount St Helens in 2004-05.

The 2004–05 eruption of Mount St Helens exhibited sustained, near-equilibrium behaviour characterized by relatively steady extrusion of a solid dacite plug and nearly periodic shallow earthquakes. Here we present a diverse data set to support our hypothesis that these earthquakes resulted from stick-slip motion along the margins of the plug as it was forced incrementally upwards by ascending, solidifying, gas-poor magma. We formalize this hypothesis with a dynamical model that reveals a strong analogy between behaviour of the magma–plug system and that of a variably damped oscillator. Modelled stick-slip oscillations have properties that help constrain the balance of forces governing the earthquakes and eruption, and they imply that magma pressure never deviated much from the steady equilibrium pressure. We infer that the volcano was probably poised in a near-eruptive equilibrium state long before the onset of the 2004–05 eruption.

Predicting Eruptions at Mount St. Helens, June 1980 Through December 1982

Thirteen eruptions of Mount St. Helens between June 1980 and December 1982 were predicted tens of minutes to, more generally, a few hours in advance. The last seven of these eruptions, starting with that of mid-April 1981, were predicted between 3 days and 3 weeks in advance. Precursory seismicity, deformation of the crater floor and the lava dome, and, to a lesser extent, gas emissions provided telltale evidence of forthcoming eruptions. The newly developed capability for prediction reduced risk to life and property and influenced land-use decisions.

Interpretation and utility of infrasonic records from erupting volcanoes

Abstract In the most basic seismo–acoustic studies at volcanoes, infrasound monitoring enables differentiation between sub-surface seismicity and the seismicity associated with gas release. Under optimal conditions, complicated degassing signals can be understood, relative explosion size can be assessed, and variable seismo–acoustic energy partitioning can be interpreted. The extent to which these points may be investigated depends upon the quality of the infrasonic records (a function of background wind noise, microphone sensitivity, and microphone array geometry) and the type of activity generated by the volcano (frequency of explosions, bandwidth of the signals, and coupling efficiency of the explosion to elastic energy). To illustrate the features, benefits, and limitations of infrasonic recordings at volcanoes, we showcase acoustic and seismic records from five volcanoes characterized by explosive degassing. These five volcanoes (Erebus in Antarctica, Karymsky in Russia, and Sangay, Tungurahua, and Pichincha in Ecuador) were the focus of seismo–acoustic experiments between 1997 and 2000. Each case study provides background information about the volcanic activity, an overview of visual observations during the period of monitoring, and examples of seismo–acoustic data. We discuss the benefits and utility of the infrasound study at each respective volcano. Finally, we compare the infrasound records and eruptive activity from these volcanoes with other volcanoes that have been the focus of previous seismo–acoustic experiments.

Seismic Precursors to the Mount St. Helens Eruptions in 1981 and 1982

Six categories of seismic events are recognized on the seismograms from stations in the vicinity of Mount St. Helens. Two types of high-frequency earthquakes occur near the volcano and under the volcano at depths of more than 4 kilometers. Medium- and low-frequency earthquakes occur at shallow depths (less than 3 kilometers) within the volcano and increase in number and size before eruptions. Temporal changes in the energy release of the low-frequency earthquakes have been used in predicting all the eruptions since October 1980. During and after eruptions, two types of low-frequency emergent surface events occur, including rockfalls and steam or gas bursts from the lava dome.

Forecasts and predictions of eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, USA: 1975–1984

Abstract Public statements about volcanic activity at Mount St. Helens include factual statements, forecasts, and predictions. A factual statement describes current conditions but does not anticipate future events. A forecast is a comparatively imprecise statement of the time, place, and nature of expected activity. A prediction is a comparatively precise statement of the time, place, and ideally, the nature and size of impending activity. A prediction usually covers a shorter time period than a forecast and is generally based dominantly on interpretations and measurements of ongoing processes and secondarily on a projection of past history. The three types of statements grade from one to another, and distinctions are sometimes arbitrary. Forecasts and predictions at Mount St. Helens became increasingly precise from 1975 to 1982. Stratigraphic studies led to a long-range forecast in 1975 of renewed eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, possibly before the end of the century. On the basis of seismic, geodetic and geologic data, general forecasts for a landslide and eruption were issued in April 1980, before the catastrophic blast and landslide on 18 May 1980. All extrusions except two from June 1980 to the end of 1984 were predicted on the basis of integrated geophysical, geochemical, and geologic monitoring. The two extrusions that were not predicted were preceded by explosions that removed a substantial part of the dome, reducing confining pressure and essentially short-circuiting the normal precursors.

P wave crustal velocity structure in the greater Mount Rainier area from local earthquake tomography

We present results from a local earthquake tomographic imaging experiment in the greater Mount Rainier area. We inverted P wave arrival times from local earthquakes recorded at permanent and temporary Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network seismographs between 1980 and 1996. We used a method similar to that described by Lees and Crosson [1989], modified to incorporate the parameter separation method for decoupling the hypocenter and velocity problems. In the upper 7 km of the resulting model there is good correlation between velocity anomalies and surface geology. Many focal mechanisms within the St. Helens seismic zone have nodal planes parallel to the epicentral trend as well as to a north-south trending low-velocity trough, leading us to speculate that the trough represents a zone of structural weakness in which a moderate (M 6.5–7.0) earthquake could occur. In contrast, the western Rainier seismic zone does not correlate in any simple way with anomaly patterns or focal mechanism fault planes, leading us to infer that it is less likely to experience a moderate earthquake. A ∼10 km-wide low-velocity anomaly occurs 5 to 18 km beneath the summit of Mount Rainier, which we interpret to be a signal of a region composed of hot, fractured rock with possible small amounts of melt or fluid. No systematic velocity pattern is observed in association with the southern Washington Cascades conductor. A midcrustal anomaly parallels the Olympic-Wallowa lineament as well as several other geophysical trends, indicating that it may play an important role in regional tectonics.

Magmatic system geometry at Mount St. Helens modeled from the stress field associated with posteruptive earthquakes

Earthquakes following the May 18, 1980, and June 12, 1980, explosive eruptions of Mount St. Helens were concentrated at depths below 6 km. The hypocenters of these posteruption earthquakes define two seismic lobes separated by an aseismic volume of 2 km width that is located beneath the position of the crater. The timing and location of the posteruption seismicity suggests that the earthquakes occurred in the country rock surrounding a magma body located within the aseismic volume. The withdrawal of magma caused a pressure decrease within the reservoir, and the earthquakes occurred as a brittle response to the resulting stress change. Focal mechanism solutions for posteruption earthquakes distributed within the seismic lobes are calculated using polarity and amplitude data. Results show that a perturbation from the regional stress field occurs between depths of 7 and 11 km. This anomalous stress field is successfully modeled by a decrease in pressure within a cylindrical magma body located between the seismic lobes and subject to conditions representing the regional shear stress regime. In the best fitting model the magma body is centered at 46.204°N, 122.187°W, 600 m to the north of the present dome, and is under a regional shear stress of 20 bars. The radius of the chamber is calculated to be between 0.65 and 0.75 km when using pressure drops within the cylinder of 220 and 150 bars respectively. The magma body extends from 7 to 11 km and has a volume of between 5 and 7 km3 Posteruption earthquakes located below 11 km fall on a northeast striking fault that is preferentially aligned with the regional tectonic stress regime. This fault may be a conduit to transport magma to the shallow reservoir from greater depths within the crust.

A model for the magmatic–hydrothermal system at Mount Rainier, Washington, from seismic and geochemical observations

Abstract Mount Rainier is one of the most seismically active volcanoes in the Cascade Range, with an average of one to two high-frequency volcano-tectonic (or VT) earthquakes occurring directly beneath the summit in a given month. Despite this level of seismicity, little is known about its cause. The VT earthquakes occur at a steady rate in several clusters below the inferred base of the Quaternary volcanic edifice. More than half of 18 focal mechanisms determined for these events are normal, and most stress axes deviate significantly from the regional stress field. We argue that these characteristics are most consistent with earthquakes in response to processes associated with circulation of fluids and magmatic gases within and below the base of the edifice.Circulation of these fluids and gases has weakened rock and reduced effective stress to the point that gravity-induced brittle fracture, due to the weight of the overlying edifice, can occur. Results from seismic tomography and rock, water, and gas geochemistry studies support this interpretation. We combine constraints from these studies into a model for the magmatic system that includes a large volume of hot rock (temperatures greater than the brittle–ductile transition) with small pockets of melt and/or hot fluids at depths of 8–18 km below the summit. We infer that fluids and heat from this volume reach the edifice via a narrow conduit, resulting in fumarolic activity at the summit, hydrothermal alteration of the edifice, and seismicity.