Jacqueline de Souza Lima

Mantel test in population genetics

The comparison of genetic divergence or genetic distances, estimated by pairwise FST and related statistics, with geographical distances by Mantel test is one of the most popular approaches to evaluate spatial processes driving population structure. There have been, however, recent criticisms and discussions on the statistical performance of the Mantel test. Simultaneously, alternative frameworks for data analyses are being proposed. Here, we review the Mantel test and its variations, including Mantel correlograms and partial correlations and regressions. For illustrative purposes, we studied spatial genetic divergence among 25 populations of Dipteryx alata (“Baru”), a tree species endemic to the Cerrado, the Brazilian savannas, based on 8 microsatellite loci. We also applied alternative methods to analyze spatial patterns in this dataset, especially a multivariate generalization of Spatial Eigenfunction Analysis based on redundancy analysis. The different approaches resulted in similar estimates of the magnitude of spatial structure in the genetic data. Furthermore, the results were expected based on previous knowledge of the ecological and evolutionary processes underlying genetic variation in this species. Our review shows that a careful application and interpretation of Mantel tests, especially Mantel correlograms, can overcome some potential statistical problems and provide a simple and useful tool for multivariate analysis of spatial patterns of genetic divergence.

Planning for optimal conservation of geographical genetic variability within species

Systematic Conservation Planning (SCP) involves a series of steps that should be accomplished to determine the most cost-effective way to invest in conservation action. Although SCP has been usually applied at the species level (or hierarchically higher), it is possible to use alleles from molecular analyses at the population level as basic units for analyses. Here we demonstrate how SCP procedures can be used to establish optimum strategies for in situ and ex situ conservation of a single species, using Dipteryx alata (a Fabaceae tree species widely distributed and endemics to Brazilian Cerrado) as a case study. Data for the analyses consisted in 52 alleles from eight microsatellite loci coded for a total of 644 individual trees sampled in 25 local populations throughout species’ geographic range. We found optimal solutions in which seven local populations are the smallest set of local populations of D. alata that should be conserved to represent the known genetic diversity. Combining these several solutions allowed estimating the relative importance of the local populations for conserving all known alleles, taking into account the current land-use patterns in the region. A germplasm collection for this species already exists, so we also used SCP approach to identify the smallest number of populations that should be further collected in the field to complement the existing collection, showing that only four local populations should be sampled for optimizing the species ex situ representation. The initial application of the SCP methods to genetic data showed here can be a useful starting point for methodological and conceptual improvements and may be a first important step towards a comprehensive and balanced quantitative definition of conservation goals, shedding light to new possibilities for in situ and ex situ designs within species.

Phylogeography of Tibouchina papyrus (Pohl) Toledo (Melastomataceae), an endangered tree species from rocky savannas, suggests bidirectional expansion due to climate cooling in the Pleistocene

Many endemic species present disjunct geographical distribution; therefore, they are suitable models to test hypotheses about the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms involved in the origin of disjunct distributions in these habitats. We studied the genetic structure and phylogeography of Tibouchina papyrus (Melastomataceae), endemic to rocky savannas in Central Brazil, to test hypothesis of vicariance and dispersal in the origin of the disjunct geographical distribution. We sampled 474 individuals from the three localities where the species is reported: Serra dos Pirineus, Serra Dourada, and Serra de Natividade. Analyses were based on the polymorphisms at cpDNA and on nuclear microsatellite loci. To test for vicariance and dispersal we constructed a median-joining network and performed an analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA). We also tested population bottleneck and estimated demographic parameters and time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) using coalescent analyses. A remarkable differentiation among populations was found. No significant effect of population expansion was detected and coalescent analyses showed a negligible gene flow among populations and an ancient coalescence time for chloroplast genome. Our results support that the disjunct distribution of T. papyrus may represent a climatic relict. With an estimated TMRCA dated from ∼836.491 ± 107.515 kyr BP (before present), we hypothesized that the disjunct distribution may be the outcome of bidirectional expansion of the geographical distribution favored by the drier and colder conditions that prevailed in much of Brazil during the Pre-Illinoian glaciation, followed by the retraction as the climate became warmer and moister.

Demographic stability and high historical connectivity explain the diversity of a savanna tree species in the Quaternary

Background and Aims Cyclic glaciations were frequent throughout the Quaternary and this affected species distribution and population differentiation worldwide. The present study reconstructed the demographic history and dispersal routes of Eugenia dysenterica lineages and investigated the effects of Quaternary climate change on its spatial pattern of genetic diversity. Methods A total of 333 individuals were sampled from 23 populations and analysed by sequencing four regions of the chloroplast DNA and the internal transcribed spacer of the nuclear DNA. The analyses were performed using a multi‐model inference approach based on ecological niche modelling and statistical phylogeography. Key Results Coalescent simulation showed that population stability through time is the most likely scenario. The palaeodistribution dynamics predicted by the ecological niche models revealed that the species was potentially distributed across a large area, extending over Central‐Western Brazil through the last glaciation. The lineages of E. dysenterica dispersed from Central Brazil towards populations at the northern, western and south‐eastern regions. A historical refugium through time may have favoured lineage dispersal and the maintenance of genetic diversity. Conclusions The results suggest that the central region of the Cerrado biome is probably the centre of distribution of E. dysenterica and that the spatial pattern of its genetic diversity may be the outcome of population stability throughout the Quaternary. The lower genetic diversity in populations in the south‐eastern Cerrado biome is probably due to local climatic instability during the Quaternary.

Fine-scale genetic structure in Tibouchina papyrus (Pohl) Toledo (Melastomataceae), an endemic and habitat-restricted species from Central Brazil

Spatial genetic structure (SGS) is the non-random distribution of genotypes in space, which is usually correlated with life history traits and is driven by ecological and demographic processes. This study aimed to use spatial statistical analysis methods to assess genetic diversity and spatial genetic structure in three known disjunct localities where Tibouchina papyrus occurs, varying in aggregation and density of individuals and in landscape characteristics. This small tree species is endemic to the “Cerrado” (savannas) region of Central Brazil and is also restricted to elevation rock fields (“campo rupestre”). Therefore, it can be considered a model species to help guide studies on Cerrado endemic plants that are isolated with geographic distributions restricted to this highland habitat. The analyses were based on the polymorphisms at ten microsatellite loci. Our working hypothesis was that wind-dispersed species, such as T. papyrus, present no or low SGS because of the long distance seed gene flow. The spatial genetic structure was indeed weak for two of the three populations. The intensity and shape of the SGS are related to density and aggregation (defined by Ripley’s K statistic of spatial aggregation) of individuals in the three localities. Low SGS occurs in populations with aggregation patterns, corroborating the overall hypothesis, although in this species, this pattern depends on the landscape characteristics of each local population.

Climatic changes can drive the loss of genetic diversity in a Neotropical savanna tree species

The high rates of future climatic changes, compared with the rates reported for past changes, may hamper species adaptation to new climates or the tracking of suitable conditions, resulting in significant loss of genetic diversity. Trees are dominant species in many biomes and because they are long-lived, they may not be able to cope with ongoing climatic changes. Here, we coupled ecological niche modelling (ENM) and genetic simulations to forecast the effects of climatic changes on the genetic diversity and the structure of genetic clusters. Genetic simulations were conditioned to climatic variables and restricted to plant dispersal and establishment. We used a Neotropical savanna tree as species model that shows a preference for hot and drier climates, but with low temperature seasonality. The ENM predicts a decreasing range size along the more severe future climatic scenario. Additionally, genetic diversity and allelic richness also decrease with range retraction and climatic genetic clusters are lost for both future scenarios, which will lead genetic variability to homogenize throughout the landscape. Besides, climatic genetic clusters will spatially reconfigure on the landscape following displacements of climatic conditions. Our findings indicate that climate change effects will challenge population adaptation to new environmental conditions because of the displacement of genetic ancestry clusters from their optimal conditions.

Spatially-explicit analyses reveal the distribution of genetic diversity and plant conservation status in Cerrado biome

Despite the huge biodiversity of the Cerrado biome, a synthesis on the distribution of genetic diversity across the biome is still wanting. We describe patterns of plant genetic variation across the Cerrado biome, highlighting areas of high diversity and priority areas for conservation. We also analyze the relative importance of environmental characteristics and human footprints on patterns of genetic variation. Raw genetic data comes primarily from central and southeastern Brazil, outside conservation units (CUs). Standardized estimated genetic richness (G est ) decreases in a north–south gradient. Populations with high genetic diversity ( He ) and allelic richness ( AR ) are widespread across the biome, but both increase with distance from the center of Cerrado. Environmental variables related to energy, temperature and precipitation are associated with G est and AR , but not He . G est is higher in northern Cerrado, in regions with low human development index (HDI). Conversely, southern Cerrado shows higher HDI and lower genetic richness, most likely due to both high habitat fragmentation and loss. CUs in northern Cerrado tend to have higher G est , whereas those in southeast and central Cerrado have higher He and AR . The high genetic diversity and richness in the few populations studied in northern Cerrado, coupled with the low data availability, reveal the importance of encouraging genetic studies in this region. Moreover, very limited information about population genetic diversity is available from CUs, which may constrain the access of species conservation status and decision-make on management of populations inside CUs.

Geographic shifts in climatically suitable areas and loss of genetic variability under climate change in a neotropical tree

Background Many species are expected to suffer a strong shift in geographic ranges due to climate changes in the next fifty years, depending on their ecological tolerance and current demographical parameters, which were in turn shaped by their evolutionary history. These shifts may also cause a change in genetic population structure and variability, because local extinctions or reduction in fitness are not expected to be random in geographical space. Here we used an ensemble forecast approach of Species Distribution Modeling (SDM hereafter, also known as niche modeling) to derive current and future geographic distribution of the Neotropical tree Dipteryx alata (“Baru” tree, Fabaceae). We then obtained a series of genetic parameters for the species after generating extinctions in areas of low future habitat suitability.