Jacques Ledent

The Factors of Urban Population Growth: Net Immigration versus Natural Increase:

As a country evolves from a traditional to an advanced society, the part of urban growth that is due to net immigration follows a simple pattern, which can be described by an inverted U-shaped curve: it first increases, then passes through a maximum, and decreases thereafter. This hypothesis is confirmed by quantitative analysis using time-series and cross-section data. The analysis suggests that in the second half of this century natural increase often provides a slightly higher contribution to urban population growth than net immigration.

A Model of Urbanization with Nonlinear Migration Flows

This paper seeks an appropriate specification of the migration exchange between rural and urban areas so that the implied evolution of the degree of urbanization agrees with its commonly observed S-shape. After demonstrating that the gross migration flows between rural and urban areas should be specified as nonlinear functions of the population in the origin sector, the paper introduces a model in which such flows are represented by gravity-type functional forms. When proper bounds are imposed on the parameters of these functional forms, the model yields an evolution of the degree of urbanization that is depicted by a logistic curve. It thus can be used to give insights into the time paths of three basic urbanization variables: the urban-rural growth rate differential, the rural net outmigration rate, and the urban net immigration rate. All take on a zero value at the two extremes of the urbanization process and evolve in between according to a bell-shaped curve. These findings are illustrated by applying the model to data from the United States for the period 1790-1980.

THE URBANIZATION PROCESS: WILLIAMS'S PARADIGM OF POPULATION REDISTRIBUTION REVISITED

The author comments on an article by Lynden S. Williams in which Williams attempted to develop a paradigm of population redistribution that pertains to the process of urbanization. He presents a clarification of the original paradigm and proposes an extension to it which is illustrated using data from India. A reply by Williams (pp. 83-7) is included. (ANNOTATION)

Multiregional Population Projection

This paper is an exposition of the mathematics of multiregional population projection. We begin by outlining the notion of a multiregional life table. Next, we show how the stationary regional populations of such a life table serve as inputs to numerical calculations carried out with the multiregional versions of the discrete and continuous models of demographic growth. We then conclude with a brief consideration of some of the spatial consequences of zero population growth.

Integration of Immigrants and Temporary Migrants into the Labour Market in Quebec and Canada: New Perspectives on Contexts and Actors

In the decades after World War II, immigrants generally managed to fit into the Canadian labour market without too many obstacles. Even when they were poorly educated, they found adequate jobs in the secondary sector, particularly in manufacturing. Moreover, if they were initially paid less than the natives, they tended to catch up after about fifteen years. In the early 1970s, however, when the thirty-year postwar boom gave way to a period of restructuring the productive system, the ensuing strong expansion of the tertiary sector resulted in fewer suitable employment opportunities for immigrants. The Canadian and Quebec governments responded by putting in place a policy that sought to select their immigrants on the basis of human capital characteristics. This policy continues to this day, especially because the world of work is currently engaged in a new phase of transformation linked to the development of the knowledge economy. Roughly speaking, this policy of selecting immigrants has played its role. Nevertheless, immigrants who entered the country after its adoption (as early as the 1980s) began to encounter integration difficulties, which increased with each new cohort of immigrants. In particular, their job remuneration deteriorated steadily in comparison with that of the natives so that immigrants’ wage parity appeared difficult and improbable. The underlying reasons for immigrant employment difficulties are numerous and diverse as they relate to various actors. The immigrants’ human capital in terms of education and work experience is not always recognized at its true value. The government, in part to meet the demands of the globalization of economic activity, relaxed its policy of regulating labour that once involved the supply of full-time and indefinite jobs. Also, employers are often reluctant to hire immigrants, especially if they are members of the visible minorities.

Academic performance and educational pathways of young allophones: A comparative multivariate analysis of Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver

Using several local and provincial data banks enabling one to follow the school progression of the cohort of students who, in Canada’s three main immigration-destination cities, were expected to graduate secondary school in 2004, this article examines the academic performance and educational pathways of those students who at home use a language other the main language of schooling: non-French speakers in Montreal and non-English speakers in Toronto and Vancouver. First, after accounting for differences in characteristics, those students (target group) are shown to succeed better than the remaining students (comparison group), especially in Vancouver. However, within the target group, there appear to be substantial differences in performance between linguistic subgroups, which are far from being similar in all three cities. Second, the individual and contextual factors that influence the academic performance of the students in the target group appear to be similar for some and different for others in the three cities, while presenting some more-or-less large discrepancies with the corresponding factors pertaining to the comparison group. The article concludes with a few policy implications.