Kao-Lee Liaw

Migration within the United States: Role of Race-Ethnicity

Minority racial and ethnic groups, which account for an ever larger share of the U.S. population, are unevenly distributed across states. The concentration of Hispanic and Asian populations in New York, California, and a few other large states is related to their recent immigrant status and attachments to coethnic communities in those areas. Yet recent U.S. Census 2000 results suggest greater geographic dispersal for these two groups. The African American population, while less concentrated than these other race-ethnic groups, is demonstrating an increased tendency to locate in the South, countering a long-standing movement in the reverse direction. The prominence of race-ethnic minorities in the U.S. population and their changing distribution and dispersal patterns calls for explicit attention to their roles in internal migration models. The history of such models has shown increasing elaboration over past decades. Early migration researchers conceptualized the migration process as a largely labor market phenomenon, where migration responds mainly to the spatial disparities in economic opportunities. The typical model explaining origin-to-destination specific flows

Interstate migration of the US poverty population: Immigration “pushes” and welfare magnet “pulls”

This study evaluates the social and demographic structure of poverty migration during the 1985–90 period based on an analysis of recent census data. Particular attention is given to the roles of two policy-relevant factors that are proposed to be linked to poverty migration. The first of these is the role of immigration from abroad and its effect on the net out-migration of longer-term residents with below-poverty incomes, from States receiving the highest volume of immigrants. Such a response, it is argued, could result from job competition or other economic and social costs associated with immigration. The second involves the poverty population “magnet” effect associated with State welfare benefits (AFDC and Food Stamp payments) which has come under renewed scrutiny in light of the impending reform of the federal welfare program. The impact of both of these factors on interstate poverty migration is evaluated in a broader context that takes cognizance of other sociodemographic subgroups, and State-level attributes that are known to be relevant in explaining internal migration. This research employs an exceptionally rich data base of aggregate migration flows, specially tabulated from the full migration sample of the 1990 US census (based on the “residence 5 years ago” question). It also employs an analysis technique, the nested logit model, which identifies separately the “push” and “pull” effects of immigration, welfare benefits, and other State attributes on the migration process. Our findings are fairly clear. The high volume of immigration to selected US Statesdoes affect a selective out-migration of the poverty population, which is stronger for whites, Blacks and other non-Asian minorities as well as the least-educated. These results are consistent with arguments that internal migrants are responding to labor market competition from similarly educated immigrants. Moreover, we found that the impact of immigration occurs primarily as a “push” rather than a reduced “pull.” In contrast, State welfare benefits exert only minimal effects on the interstate migration of the poverty population—either as “pulls” or “pushes,” although some demographic segments of that population are more prone to respond than others. In addition to these findings, our results reveal the strong impact that a States racial and ethnic composition exerts in both retaining and attracting migrants of like race and ethnic groups. This suggests the potential for a greater cross-state division in the US poverty population, by race and ethnic status.Data Used: 1990 US census tabulations of full migration (“residence 5 years ago”) sample. Note: Detailed 1990 census statistics on migration of the poverty and nonpoverty populations for individual states can be found in: William H. Frey “Immigration and Internal Migration for US States: 1990 Census Findings by Poverty Status and Race,” Population Studies CenterResearch Report No. 94-320.

State magnets for different elderly migrant types in the United States

This article identifies a number of elderly ‘migrant types’ in the United States using census data information on state of birth and state of residence prior to the 1985–90 migration period. This typology is useful because it points out significant socio-demographic profiles associated with each migrant type with distinct impacts on elderly ‘magnet’ states. States that serve as classic retirement magnets (e.g. Florida, Arizona) and second-tier retirement magnets (e.g. North Carolina, Nevada) benefit the most from elderly inter-state migration. Other states (e.g. California) are becoming ‘revolving door’ elderly migration states that attract well-off elderly migrants, but also lose large numbers making additional moves. Copyright

Metropolitan elderly out-migration in Canada 1971-1976: characterization and explanation.

This article analyzes the 1971-1976 out-migration pattern of the Canadian male elderly from the 23 Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs). Migration is conceptualized within a three-level choice framework, and statistical inference is based on a logit model. The findings include that (1) retirement-oriented migration in Canada takes place long before the official retirement age; (2) compared with the young migrants, the elderly migrants are less likely to be metropolitanward and tend to have a more concentrated destination choice pattern; (3) with respect to metropolitanward elderly migrants from the CMAs, the probability of choosing a particular destination is negatively related to the logarithm of distance, cultural dissimilarity, coldness, and gross rent, and positively related to population size, brightness, and housing growth; and (4) compared with the young migrants, the elderly migrants are more sensitive to the environmental variables.

Location of Adult Children as an Attraction for Black and White Elderly Primary Migrants in the United States

By using information on state of birth in the 1990 Census of the United States, the authors create a variable serving as a proxy for the distribution of adult children in 1985. This variable is then used in a two-level nested logit model to explain the 1985 – 90 interstate primary migration of elderly black people and elderly white people within the context of environmental amenities and other factors. The main findings are as follows. First, the location of adult children as well as environmental amenities are among the most important attractions for the primary migration of elderly black and white people. Their effects are stronger on white people than on black people. Because a relatively high proportion of out-migrated black adult children are located in the industrial states of the snowbelt and a relatively high proportion of their white counterparts are located in high-amenity states of the sunbelt, the attractions of adult children and environmental amenities are more prone to counter each other for elderly black people and to reinforce each other for elderly white people. Consequently, the net transfers of elderly primary migrants are small and somewhat oriented toward the snowbelt for black people, but they are voluminous and strongly oriented toward the sunbelt for white people. Second, the attraction of adult children is strong for not only the unmarried but also the married elderly, although it is somewhat stronger for the widowed aged 75 years and over. This finding can be taken as evidence for the viability of the ‘modified extended family’ system, which not only legitimizes the out-migration of adult children for career advancement but also encourages the migration of elderly parents to be close to their non-coresident children for services that require continual proximity. It also suggests that the elderly do not have a strong tendency to delay their migration toward non-coresident children until the loss of a spouse or becoming very old.

Characterization of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan outmigration schedules of the Canadian population system, 1971-1976

This paper characterizes the 1971-76 sex-specific interregional out-migration schedules of the Canadian population system with 86 age groups (0 1 2 ... 85+) and 24 regions (the 23 Census Metropolitan Areas in addition to the rest of Canada) by using the Rogers-Castro model. The model fits the data well. The Canadian migration pattern is shown to be similar to those of several European countries in terms of sex differences and the metropolitan versus nonmetropolitan contrast. (EXCERPT)

Destination Choice of the 1995–2000 Immigrants to Japan: Salient Features and Multivariate Explanation

The purpose of this paper is to identify the salient features of the destination choices made by new immigrants who entered Japan in the 1995–2000 period, and to provide a multivariate explanation for their choice behaviors. The salient features can be summarized as follows; first, destination-choice patterns differed markedly by ethnicity; second, the higher the educational qualification of the immigrants, the greater the attraction of the Tokyo prefecture and the less dispersed the destination-choice pattern; and third, among female immigrants, those with the household status of daughter in law were more prone to go to the Tohoku region, where the maintenance of the traditional stem-family system was a serious concern. Our multivariate analysis has revealed that the destination choices made by the new immigrants were indeed subject to the selective effects of labor-market conditions, the distributions of coethnics, and the spatial patterns of marital opportunities in theoretically meaningful ways, and that labor-market conditions were most important, whereas marital opportunities were least important.

Labor Migrations in Taiwan: Characterization and Interpretation Based on the Data of the 1990 Census

In this paper we characterize and interpret patterns of labor migration in Taiwan, including (1) lifetime labor migration up to 1990 and (2) 1985–90 labor migration, based on the data of the 1990 Census. To gain better insights, the 1985–90 migrations are decomposed into three types: primary, return, and onward. Our major findings are as follows. First, lifetime labor migration was highly efficient in transferring labor into North Region from all other regions of Taiwan and contributed to Taiwans transformation into one of the newly industrialized economies. Second, the 1985–90 labor migration in Taiwan responded quickly to the spatially unbalanced impacts of economic restructuring and globalization in the 1980s and resulted in a major turnaround in population redistribution: a shift from a long-lasting dual-pole (north–south) concentration pattern developed since the 1930s toward a single-pole concentration pattern in the north. Third, primary migration was much more voluminous than return and onward migrations, and rural prefectures had the typical pattern of a ‘loser’: a large net loss of primary migrants, countered by a small net gain of return migrants, and somewhat aggravated by a small net loss of onward migrants. Fourth, the greatest beneficiaries in terms of educational selectivity were Taipei city (the command center of the globalized Taiwanese economic system) and Hsinchu city (the so-called silicon valley of Taiwan). Fifth, the losses in the quantity and quality of human resources due to migration did not result in socioeconomic decline in rural prefectures because these losses were compensated for largely by the rural-ward financial transfer of central government and partly by the remittances sent back by rural out-migrants.

Dynamic Properties of the 1966–1971 Canadian Spatial Population System

This paper uses an extended Rogers model of multiregional demographic growth to characterize the 1966–1971 Canadian spatial population system, which is disaggregated simultaneously into two sexes, fourteen age groups, and eight regions. It is assumed that much foresight about the future of a spatial population system can be gained by studying the dynamic implications of a fixed matrix of empirically estimated demographic rates. The analysis reveals that during the period 1966–1971 the Canadian spatial population system had very strong growth potential, over 40% of which was due to foreign net immigration, and that the systems long-run redistributional trend is: (1) a continued dominance by Ontario; (2) a strong westward-shifting potential; (3) a drastic reduction in Quebecs competitiveness; (4) a substantial increase in the mean age of every regional subpopulation, except in the North; and (5) a switch from male to female dominance. It is also shown that the convergence toward the long-run distribution can be divided into two stages: First a quick convergence toward relatively smooth regional age profiles, and then a slow but persistent spatial convergence.

Interpolation of Transition Matrices by the Variable Power Method

In this paper the author introduces the variable power method that can be used to interpolate age-specific transition matrices of a quinquennial multiregional model of population change into those of an annual model. Beside being able to maintain consistency and non-negativity, this method is better than the well-known fifth-root method, because the former allows the mortality and mobility levels to change with age, whereas the latter does not. The variable power method is applied to the biregional model of Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area and the rest of Canada based on the 1971–1976 data. The empirical result suggests that the method may work equally well for multiregional models of other population systems.