Jacques Verron

A demonstration of ensemble-based assimilation methods with a layered OGCM from the perspective of operational ocean forecasting systems

A demonstration study of three advanced, sequential data assimilation methods, applied with the nonlinear Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM), has been performed within the European Commission-funded DIADEM project. The data assimilation techniques considered are the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), the Ensemble Kalman Smoother (EnKS) and the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) Filter, which all in different ways resemble the original Kalman Filter. In the EnKF and EnKS an ensemble of model states is integrated forward in time according to the model dynamics, and statistical moments needed at analysis time are calculated from the ensemble of model states. The EnKS, as opposed to the EnKF, update the analysis also backward in time whenever new observations are available, thereby improving the estimated states at the previous analysis times. The SEEK filter reduces the computational burden of the error propagation by representing the errors in a subspace which is initially calculated from a truncated EOF analysis. A hindcast experiment, where sea-level anomaly and sea-surface temperature data are assimilated, has been conducted in the North Atlantic for the time period July until September 1996. In this paper, we describe the implementation of ensemble-based assimilation methods with a common theoretical framework, we present results from hindcast experiments achieved with the EnKF, EnKS and SEEK filter, and we discuss the relative merits of these methods from the perspective of operational marine monitoring and forecasting systems. We found that the three systems have similar performances, and they can be considered feasible technologically for building preoperational prototypes. D 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Vortex merger in surface quasi-geostrophy

The merger of two identical surface temperature vortices is studied in the surface quasi-geostrophic model. The motivation for this study is the observation of the merger of submesoscale vortices in the ocean. Firstly, the interaction between two point vortices, in the absence or in the presence of an external deformation field, is investigated. The rotation rate of the vortices, their stationary positions and the stability of these positions are determined. Then, a numerical model provides the steady states of two finite-area, constant-temperature, vortices. Such states are less deformed than their counterparts in two-dimensional incompressible flows. Finally, numerical simulations of the nonlinear surface quasi-geostrophic equations are used to investigate the finite-time evolution of initially identical and symmetric, constant temperature vortices. The critical merger distance is obtained and the deformation of the vortices before or after merger is determined. The addition of external deformation is shown to favor or to oppose merger depending on the orientation of the vortex pair with respect to the strain axes. An explanation for this observation is proposed. Conclusions are drawn towards an application of this study to oceanic vortices.