James A. Clouse

Monetary Policy When the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero

In an environment of low inflation, the Federal Reserve faces the possibility that it may not have provided enough monetary stimulus even though it had pushed the short-term nominal interest rate to its lower bound of zero. Assuming the nominal Treasury-bill rate had been lowered to zero, this paper considers whether further open market purchases of Treasury bills could spur aggregate demand through increases in the monetary base. Such action may be stimulative by increasing liquidity for financial intermediaries and households; by affecting expectations of the future paths of short-term interest rates, inflation, and asset prices; through distributional effects; or by stimulating bank lending through the credit channel. This paper also examines the alternative policy tools that are available to the Federal Reserve in theory, and notes the practical limitations imposed by the Federal Reserve Act. The tools the Federal Reserve has at its disposal include open market purchases of Treasury bonds and certain types of private-sector credit instruments; unsterilized and sterilized intervention in foreign exchange; lending through the discount window; and, in some circumstances, may include the use of options.

A computational model of banks' optimal reserve management policy

Abstract This paper uses numerical methods to model the demand for excess reserves by a representative bank in a framework that includes many realistic features of the current reserve market structure in the United States. In particular, the model incorporates a 14-day maintenance period and an accurate representation of carryover provisions. We use the model to evaluate the effect of various changes to the operating environment (increased uncertainty, modified penalties) and changes to policy (paying interest on reserves).

Fixed costs and the behavior of the federal funds rate

Abstract This paper presents an equilibrium model of the federal funds market that ties movements in the funds rate to changes in the supply of reserves and to a fixed cost facing banks that borrow at the discount window. It is found that the existence of the fixed cost is capable of explaining a number of features of the funds market. In particular, it is critical for explaining occasional instances of extremely high funds rates. It also provides an explanation for heterogeneous behavior across banks towards the discount window and for higher average funds rates at the end of maintenance periods.

Declining Required Reserves and the Volatility of the Federal Funds Rate

Low required reserve balances in 1991 led to a sharp increase in the volatility of the federal funds rate, but similarly low balances in 1996 did not. This paper develops and simulates a microeconomic model of the funds market that explains these facts. We show that reductions in reserve balances increase the volatility of the federal funds rate, but that this relationship changes over time in response to observable changes in bank behavior. The model predicts that a continued decline in required reserves could increase funds-rate volatility significantly.

Monetary policy and financial stability risks: an example

The financial crisis and its aftermath have raised numerous questions about the appropriate role of financial stability considerations in the conduct of monetary policy. This paper develops a simple example of the possible connections between financial stability and monetary policy. We find that even without an explicit financial stability goal for monetary policy, financial stability considerations arise naturally in the context of standard models of optimal monetary policy if the potential magnitude of financial stability shocks is affected by the stance of policy. In this case, similar to the classic analysis of Brainard (1967), policymakers may seek to reduce the variance of output by scaling back the level of policy accommodation provided today in response to an aggregate demand shock relative to the level that would otherwise be provided. However, the policy implications of this possible connection between monetary policy and financial stability are complex even in the simple example considered here. In particular, financial stability considerations may also increase the relative benefits of following a commitment policy relative to a discretionary strategy.