Jens D. Lundgren

Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND Insufficient data are available from single cohort studies to allow estimation of the prognosis of HIV-1 infected, treatment-naive patients who start highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The ART Cohort Collaboration, which includes 13 cohort studies from Europe and North America, was established to fill this knowledge gap. METHODS We analysed data on 12,574 adult patients starting HAART with a combination of at least three drugs. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. We considered progression to a combined endpoint of a new AIDS-defining disease or death, and to death alone. The prognostic model that generalised best was a Weibull model, stratified by baseline CD4 cell count and transmission group. FINDINGS During 24,310 person-years of follow up, 1094 patients developed AIDS or died and 344 patients died. Baseline CD4 cell count was strongly associated with the probability of progression to AIDS or death: compared with patients starting HAART with less than 50 CD4 cells/microL, adjusted hazard ratios were 0.74 (95% CI 0.62-0.89) for 50-99 cells/microL, 0.52 (0.44-0.63) for 100-199 cells/microL, 0.24 (0.20-0.30) for 200-349 cells/microL, and 0.18 (0.14-0.22) for 350 or more CD4 cells/microL. Baseline HIV-1 viral load was associated with a higher probability of progression only if 100,000 copies/microL or above. Other independent predictors of poorer outcome were advanced age, infection through injection-drug use, and a previous diagnosis of AIDS. The probability of progression to AIDS or death at 3 years ranged from 3.4% (2.8-4.1) in patients in the lowest-risk stratum for each prognostic variable, to 50% (43-58) in patients in the highest-risk strata. INTERPRETATION The CD4 cell count at initiation was the dominant prognostic factor in patients starting HAART. Our findings have important implications for clinical management and should be taken into account in future treatment guidelines.

Changing patterns of mortality across Europe in patients infected with HIV-1

BACKGROUND The introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy and protease inhibitors has led to reports of falling mortality rates among people infected with HIV-1. We examined the change in these mortality rates of HIV-1-infected patients across Europe during 1994-98, and assessed the extent to which changes can be explained by the use of new therapeutic regimens. METHODS We analysed data from EuroSIDA, which is a prospective, observational, European, multicentre cohort of 4270 HIV-1-infected patients. We compared death rates in each 6 month period from September, 1994, to March, 1998. FINDINGS By March, 1998, 1215 patients had died. The mortality rate from March to September, 1995, was 23.3 deaths per 100 person-years of follow-up (95% CI 20.6-26.0), and fell to 4.1 per 100 person-years of follow-up (2.3-5.9) between September, 1997, and March, 1998. From March to September, 1997, the death rate was 65.4 per 100 person-years of follow-up for those on no treatment, 7.5 per 100 person-years of follow-up for patients on dual therapy, and 3.4 per 100 person-years of follow-up for patients on triple-combination therapy. Compared with patients who were followed up from September, 1994, to March, 1995, patients seen between September, 1997, and March, 1998, had a relative hazard of death of 0.16 (0.08-0.32), which rose to 0.90 (0.50-1.64) after adjustment for treatment. INTERPRETATION Death rates across Europe among patients infected with HIV-1 have been falling since September, 1995, and at the beginning of 1998 were less than a fifth of their previous level. A large proportion of the reduction in mortality could be explained by new treatments or combinations of treatments.

Inflammatory and Coagulation Biomarkers and Mortality in Patients with HIV Infection

Background In the Strategies for Management of Anti-Retroviral Therapy trial, all-cause mortality was higher for participants randomized to intermittent, CD4-guided antiretroviral treatment (ART) (drug conservation [DC]) than continuous ART (viral suppression [VS]). We hypothesized that increased HIV-RNA levels following ART interruption induced activation of tissue factor pathways, thrombosis, and fibrinolysis. Methods and Findings Stored samples were used to measure six biomarkers: high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), amyloid A, amyloid P, D-dimer, and prothrombin fragment 1+2. Two studies were conducted: (1) a nested case–control study for studying biomarker associations with mortality, and (2) a study to compare DC and VS participants for biomarker changes. For (1), markers were determined at study entry and before death (latest level) for 85 deaths and for two controls (n = 170) matched on country, age, sex, and date of randomization. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated with logistic regression. For each biomarker, each of the three upper quartiles was compared to the lowest quartile. For (2), the biomarkers were assessed for 249 DC and 250 VS participants at study entry and 1 mo following randomization. Higher levels of hsCRP, IL-6, and D-dimer at study entry were significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. Unadjusted ORs (highest versus lowest quartile) were 2.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0–4.1; p = 0.05), 8.3 (95% CI, 3.3–20.8; p < 0.0001), and 12.4 (95% CI, 4.2–37.0; p < 0.0001), respectively. Associations were significant after adjustment, when the DC and VS groups were analyzed separately, and when latest levels were assessed. IL-6 and D-dimer increased at 1 mo by 30% and 16% in the DC group and by 0% and 5% in the VS group (p < 0.0001 for treatment difference for both biomarkers); increases in the DC group were related to HIV-RNA levels at 1 mo (p < 0.0001). In an expanded case–control analysis (four controls per case), the OR (DC/VS) for mortality was reduced from 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1–3.1; p = 0.02) to 1.5 (95% CI, 0.8–2.8) and 1.4 (95% CI, 0.8–2.5) after adjustment for latest levels of IL-6 and D-dimer, respectively. Conclusions IL-6 and D-dimer were strongly related to all-cause mortality. Interrupting ART may further increase the risk of death by raising IL-6 and D-dimer levels. Therapies that reduce the inflammatory response to HIV and decrease IL-6 and D-dimer levels may warrant investigation. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00027352).

Decline in the AIDS and death rates in the EuroSIDA study: an observational study

BACKGROUND Since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), little is known about whether changes in HIV-1 mortality and morbidity rates have been sustained. We aimed to assess possible changes in these rates across Europe. METHODS We analysed data for 9803 patients in 70 European HIV centres including ones in Israel and Argentina. Incidence rates of AIDS or death were calculated for overall and most recent CD4 count in 6-monthly periods and in three treatment eras (pre-HAART, 1994-1995; early-HAART, 1996-1997; and late-HAART, 1998-2002). FINDINGS The incidence of AIDS or death fell after September, 1998, by 8% per 6-month period (rate ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.95, p<0.0001). When AIDS and death were analysed separately, the incidence of all deaths during the late-HAART era was significantly lower than that during the early-HAART era in patients whose latest CD4 count was 20 cells/microL or less (0.43, 0.35-0.53, p<0.0001), but at higher CD4 counts, did not differ between early-HAART and late-HAART. Incidence of AIDS was about 50% lower in late-HAART than in early-HAART, irrespective of latest CD4 count (p<0.0001). In multivariate Coxs models, with early-HAART as the reference, there was an increased risk of AIDS (relative hazard 1.39; 95% CI 1.16-1.67, p=0.0004) and all deaths (1.29; 1.08-1.56, p=0.0065) in the pre-HAART era, and a reduced risk of AIDS (0.62; 0.50-0.77, p<0.0001) and all deaths (0.66; 0.53-0.82, p=0.0002) in the late-HAART era. INTERPRETATION The initial drop in mortality and morbidity after the introduction of HAART has been sustained. Potential long-term adverse effects associated with HAART have not altered its effectiveness in treating AIDS.

Cardiovascular disease risk factors in HIV patients - association with antiretroviral therapy. Results from the DAD study

Objective: To determine the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) among HIV-infected persons, and to investigate any association between such risk factors, stage of HIV disease, and use of antiretroviral therapies. Design: Baseline data from 17 852 subjects enrolled in DAD, a prospective multinational cohort study initiated in 1999. Methods: Cross-sectional analyses of CVD risk factors at baseline. The data collected includes data on demographic variables, cigarette smoking, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, body mass index, stage of HIV infection, antiretroviral therapy. Results: Almost 25% of the study population were at an age where there is an appreciable risk of CVD, with those receiving a protease inhibitor (PI) and/or non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) tending to be older. 1.4% had a previous history of CVD and 51.5% were cigarette smokers. Increased prevalence of elevated total cholesterol (⩾ 6.2 mmol/l) was observed among subjects receiving an NNRTI but no PI [odds ratio (OR), 1.79; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.45–2.22], PI but no NNRTI (OR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.92–2.87), or NNRTI + PI (OR, 5.48; 95% CI, 4.34–6.91) compared to the prevalence among antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive subjects. Subjects who have discontinued ART as well as subjects receiving nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors had similar cholesterol levels to treatment-naive subjects. Higher CD4 cell count, lower plasma HIV RNA levels, clinical signs of lipodystrophy, longer exposure times to NNRTI and PI, and older age were all also associated with elevated total cholesterol level. Conclusion: HIV-infected persons exhibit multiple known risk factors for CVD. Of specific concern is the fact that use of the NNRTI and PI drug classes (alone and especially in combination), particularly among older subjects with normalized CD4 cell counts and suppressed HIV replication, was associated with a lipid profile known to increase the risk of coronary heart disease.

Use of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and risk of myocardial infarction in HIV-infected patients enrolled in the D:A:D study: a multi-cohort collaboration

BACKGROUND Whether nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors increase the risk of myocardial infarction in HIV-infected individuals is unclear. Our aim was to explore whether exposure to such drugs was associated with an excess risk of myocardial infarction in a large, prospective observational cohort of HIV-infected patients. METHODS We used Poisson regression models to quantify the relation between cumulative, recent (currently or within the preceding 6 months), and past use of zidovudine, didanosine, stavudine, lamivudine, and abacavir and development of myocardial infarction in 33 347 patients enrolled in the D:A:D study. We adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors that are unlikely to be affected by antiretroviral therapy, cohort, calendar year, and use of other antiretrovirals. FINDINGS Over 157,912 person-years, 517 patients had a myocardial infarction. We found no associations between the rate of myocardial infarction and cumulative or recent use of zidovudine, stavudine, or lamivudine. By contrast, recent-but not cumulative-use of abacavir or didanosine was associated with an increased rate of myocardial infarction (compared with those with no recent use of the drugs, relative rate 1.90, 95% CI 1.47-2.45 [p=0.0001] with abacavir and 1.49, 1.14-1.95 [p=0.003] with didanosine); rates were not significantly increased in those who stopped these drugs more than 6 months previously compared with those who had never received these drugs. After adjustment for predicted 10-year risk of coronary heart disease, recent use of both didanosine and abacavir remained associated with increased rates of myocardial infarction (1.49, 1.14-1.95 [p=0.004] with didanosine; 1.89, 1.47-2.45 [p=0.0001] with abacavir). INTERPRETATION There exists an increased risk of myocardial infarction in patients exposed to abacavir and didanosine within the preceding 6 months. The excess risk does not seem to be explained by underlying established cardiovascular risk factors and was not present beyond 6 months after drug cessation.Methods: Biomarkers, ischemic changes on the electrocardiogram, and rates of various predefined types of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events according to NRTIs used were explored in the Strategies for Management of Anti-Retroviral Therapy (SMART) study. Patients receiving abacavir and not didanosine were compared with those receiving didanosine, and to those receiving NRTIs other than abacavir or didanosine (other NRTIs). Patients randomly assigned to the continuous antiretroviral therapy arm of SMART were included in all analyses (N1⁄42752); for the study of biomarkers, patients from the antiretroviral therapy interruption arm were also included.

Risk of myocardial infarction in patients with HIV infection exposed to specific individual antiretroviral drugs from the 3 major drug classes: the data collection on adverse events of anti-HIV drugs (D:A:D) study

BACKGROUND. The risk of myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection has been assessed in 13 anti-HIV drugs in the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study. METHODS. Poisson regression models were adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, cohort, calendar year, and use of other antiretroviral drugs and assessed the association between MI risk and cumulative (per year) or recent (current or in the past 6 months) use of antiretroviral drugs, with >30,000 person-years of exposure. RESULTS. Over 178,835 person-years, 580 patients developed MI. There were no associations between use of tenofovir, zalcitabine, zidovudine, stavudine, or lamivudine and MI risk. Recent exposure to abacavir or didanosine was associated with an increased risk of MI. No association was found between MI risk and cumulative exposure to nevirapine, efavirenz, nelfinavir, or saquinavir. Cumulative exposure to indinavir and lopinavir-ritonavir was associated with an increased risk of MI (relative rate [RR] per year, 1.12 and 1.13, respectively). These increased risks were attenuated slightly (RR per year, 1.08 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.02-1.14] and 1.09 [95% CI, 1.01-1.17], respectively) after adjustment for lipids but were not altered further after adjustment for other metabolic parameters. CONCLUSIONS. Of the drugs considered, only indinavir, lopinavir-ritonavir, didanosine, and abacavir were associated with a significantly increased risk of MI. As with any observational study, our findings must be interpreted with caution (given the potential for confounding) and in the context of the benefits that these drugs provide.

Hepatitis B and HIV: prevalence, AIDS progression, response to highly active antiretroviral therapy and increased mortality in the EuroSIDA cohort

Background: Whether hepatitis B (HBV) coinfection affects outcome in HIV-1-infected patients remains unclear. Objective: To assess the prevalence of HBV (assessed as HBsAg) coinfection and its possible impact on progression to AIDS, all-cause deaths, liver-related deaths and response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the EuroSIDA cohort. Methods: Data on 9802 patients in 72 European HIV centres were analysed. Incidence rates of AIDS, global mortality and liver-related mortality, time to 25% CD4 cell count increase and time to viral load < 400 copies/ml after starting HAART were calculated and compared between HBsAg-positive and HBsAg-negative patients. Results: HBsAg was found in 498 (8.7%) patients. The incidence of new AIDS diagnosis was similar in HBsAg-positive and HBsAg-negative patients (3.3 and 3.4/100 person-years, respectively) even after adjustment for potential confounders: the incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 0.94 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.74–1.19; P = 0.61]. The incidences of all-cause and liver-related mortalities were significantly higher in HBsAg-positive subjects (3.7 and 0.7/100 person-years, respectively) compared with HBsAg-negative subjects (2.6 and 0.2/100 person-years, respectively). The adjusted IRR values were 1.53 for global (95% CI, 1.23–1.90; P = 0.0001) and 3.58 for liver-related (95% CI, 2.09–6.16; P < 0.0001) mortality. HBsAg status did not influence viral or immunological responses among the 1679 patients starting HAART. Conclusions: The prevalence of HBV coinfection was 9% in the EuroSIDA cohort. Chronic HBV infection significantly increased liver-related mortality in HIV-1-infected patients but did not impact on progression to AIDS or on viral and immunological responses to HAART.

AIDS across Europe, 1994–98: the EuroSIDA study

BACKGROUND The clinical presentation of HIV-1 related diseases could have changed after the introduction of highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART). We aimed to assess changes over time in the incidence of ADIs overall and within CD4 lymphocyte count strata, the relationship with treatment and degree of immunodeficiency at diagnosis of ADIs. METHODS We did a prospective observational multicentre study of over 7300 patients in 52 European HIV-1 outpatient clinics. Incidence rates per 100 patient-years of observation were calculated. FINDINGS In total, we recorded 1667 new ADIs; the incidence of ADIs declined from 30.7 per 100 patient-years of observation during 1994 (95% CI 28.0-33.4) to 2.5 per 100 patient-years of observation during 1998 (95% CI 2.0-3.0, p<0.0001, test for trend). Median CD4 lymphocyte count at diagnosis of a new ADI increased from 28 cells/microL to 125 cells/microL between 1994 and 1998 (p<0.0001), yet a steep decline in the rate of ADIs was seen after stratification by latest CD4 lymphocyte count within each year (< or = 50, 51-200, and > 200 cells/microL). Patients on HAART had a lower rate of ADIs than patients not on this treatment within each CD4 lymphocyte count strata. The proportion of ADIs attributable to cytomegalovirus retinitis and Mycobacterium avium complex declined over time (p=0.0058 and 0.0022, respectively), whereas the proportion of diagnoses attributable to non-Hodgkin lymphoma has increased (p<0.0001). In 1994, less than 4% of ADIs were non-Hodgkin lymphoma, in 1998 the proportion was almost 16%. This condition has become one of the most common ADIs in patients on HAART. INTERPRETATION Our findings lend support to the idea that treatment regimens can lower the incidence of ADIs. The immediate risk of an ADI for a given CD4 lymphocyte count has declined over time and is lower among patients on HAART. Long-term follow-up of patients on combination treatment is essential to monitor the incidence of new and emerging diagnoses.

Influence of Hepatitis C Virus Infection on HIV-1 Disease Progression and Response to Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy

OBJECTIVE To assess hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody prevalence in the EuroSIDA cohort, along with survival, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 disease progression, virologic response (plasma HIV-1 RNA load of < 500 copies/mL), and CD4 cell count recovery by HCV serostatus in patients initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). RESULTS HCV serostatus at or before enrollment was available for 5957 patients; 1960 (33%) and 3997 (67%) were HCV seropositive and seronegative, respectively. No association between an increased incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining illnesses or death and HCV serostatus was seen after adjustment for other prognostic risk factors known at baseline (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.97 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.81-1.16]). However, there was a large increase in the incidence of liver disease-related deaths in HCV-seropositive patients in adjusted models (IRR, 11.71 [95% CI, 6.42-21.34]). Among 2260 patients of known HCV serostatus initiating HAART, after adjustment, there was no significant difference between HCV-seropositive and -seronegative patients with respect to virologic response (relative hazard [RH], 1.13 [95% CI, 0.84-1.51]) and immunologic response, whether measured as a > or = 50% increase (RH, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.77-1.16]) or a > or = 50 cells/microL increase (RH, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.77-1.11]) in CD4 cell count after HAART initiation. CONCLUSIONS HCV serostatus did not affect the risk of HIV-1 disease progression, but the risk of liver disease-related deaths was markedly increased in HCV-seropositive patients. The overall virologic and immunologic responses to HAART were not affected by HCV serostatus.