James G. Dowty

Cancer risk in 680 000 people exposed to computed tomography scans in childhood or adolescence: data linkage study of 11 million Australians

Objective To assess the cancer risk in children and adolescents following exposure to low dose ionising radiation from diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans. Design Population based, cohort, data linkage study in Australia. Cohort members 10.9 million people identified from Australian Medicare records, aged 0-19 years on 1 January 1985 or born between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2005; all exposures to CT scans funded by Medicare during 1985-2005 were identified for this cohort. Cancers diagnosed in cohort members up to 31 December 2007 were obtained through linkage to national cancer records. Main outcome Cancer incidence rates in individuals exposed to a CT scan more than one year before any cancer diagnosis, compared with cancer incidence rates in unexposed individuals. Results 60 674 cancers were recorded, including 3150 in 680 211 people exposed to a CT scan at least one year before any cancer diagnosis. The mean duration of follow-up after exposure was 9.5 years. Overall cancer incidence was 24% greater for exposed than for unexposed people, after accounting for age, sex, and year of birth (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.29); P<0.001). We saw a dose-response relation, and the IRR increased by 0.16 (0.13 to 0.19) for each additional CT scan. The IRR was greater after exposure at younger ages (P<0.001 for trend). At 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15 or more years since first exposure, IRRs were 1.35 (1.25 to 1.45), 1.25 (1.17 to 1.34), 1.14 (1.06 to 1.22), and 1.24 (1.14 to 1.34), respectively. The IRR increased significantly for many types of solid cancer (digestive organs, melanoma, soft tissue, female genital, urinary tract, brain, and thyroid); leukaemia, myelodysplasia, and some other lymphoid cancers. There was an excess of 608 cancers in people exposed to CT scans (147 brain, 356 other solid, 48 leukaemia or myelodysplasia, and 57 other lymphoid). The absolute excess incidence rate for all cancers combined was 9.38 per 100 000 person years at risk, as of 31 December 2007. The average effective radiation dose per scan was estimated as 4.5 mSv. Conclusions The increased incidence of cancer after CT scan exposure in this cohort was mostly due to irradiation. Because the cancer excess was still continuing at the end of follow-up, the eventual lifetime risk from CT scans cannot yet be determined. Radiation doses from contemporary CT scans are likely to be lower than those in 1985-2005, but some increase in cancer risk is still likely from current scans. Future CT scans should be limited to situations where there is a definite clinical indication, with every scan optimised to provide a diagnostic CT image at the lowest possible radiation dose.

The Clinical Phenotype of Lynch Syndrome Due to Germ-Line PMS2 Mutations

BACKGROUND & AIMS Although the clinical phenotype of Lynch syndrome (also known as hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer) has been well described, little is known about disease in PMS2 mutation carriers. Now that mutation detection methods can discern mutations in PMS2 from mutations in its pseudogenes, more mutation carriers have been identified. Information about the clinical significance of PMS2 mutations is crucial for appropriate counseling. Here, we report the clinical characteristics of a large series of PMS2 mutation carriers. METHODS We performed PMS2 mutation analysis using long-range polymerase chain reaction and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification for 99 probands diagnosed with Lynch syndrome-associated tumors showing isolated loss of PMS2 by immunohistochemistry. Penetrance was calculated using a modified segregation analysis adjusting for ascertainment. RESULTS Germ-line PMS2 mutations were detected in 62% of probands (n = 55 monoallelic; 6 biallelic). Among families with monoallelic PMS2 mutations, 65.5% met revised Bethesda guidelines. Compared with the general population, in mutation carriers, the incidence of colorectal cancer was 5.2-fold higher, and the incidence of endometrial cancer was 7.5-fold higher. In North America, this translates to a cumulative cancer risk to age 70 years of 15%-20% for colorectal cancer, 15% for endometrial cancer, and 25%-32% for any Lynch syndrome-associated cancer. No elevated risk for non-Lynch syndrome-associated cancers was observed. CONCLUSIONS PMS2 mutations contribute significantly to Lynch syndrome, but the penetrance for monoallelic mutation carriers appears to be lower than that for the other mismatch repair genes. Modified counseling and cancer surveillance guidelines for PMS2 mutation carriers are proposed.

Risks of Lynch Syndrome Cancers for MSH6 Mutation Carriers

BACKGROUND Germline mutations in MSH6 account for 10%-20% of Lynch syndrome colorectal cancers caused by hereditary DNA mismatch repair gene mutations. Because there have been only a few studies of mutation carriers, their cancer risks are uncertain. METHODS We identified 113 families of MSH6 mutation carriers from five countries that we ascertained through family cancer clinics and population-based cancer registries. Mutation status, sex, age, and histories of cancer, polypectomy, and hysterectomy were sought from 3104 of their relatives. Age-specific cumulative risks for carriers and hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer risks of carriers, compared with those of the general population of the same country, were estimated by use of a modified segregation analysis with appropriate conditioning depending on ascertainment. RESULTS For MSH6 mutation carriers, the estimated cumulative risks to ages 70 and 80 years, respectively, were as follows: for colorectal cancer, 22% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14% to 32%) and 44% (95% CI = 28% to 62%) for men and 10% (95% CI = 5% to 17%) and 20% (95% CI = 11% to 35%) for women; for endometrial cancer, 26% (95% CI = 18% to 36%) and 44% (95% CI = 30% to 58%); and for any cancer associated with Lynch syndrome, 24% (95% CI = 16% to 37%) and 47% (95% CI = 32% to 66%) for men and 40% (95% CI = 32% to 52%) and 65% (95% CI = 53% to 78%) for women. Compared with incidence for the general population, MSH6 mutation carriers had an eightfold increased incidence of colorectal cancer (HR = 7.6, 95% CI = 5.4 to 10.8), which was independent of sex and age. Women who were MSH6 mutation carriers had a 26-fold increased incidence of endometrial cancer (HR = 25.5, 95% CI = 16.8 to 38.7) and a sixfold increased incidence of other cancers associated with Lynch syndrome (HR = 6.0, 95% CI = 3.4 to 10.7). CONCLUSION We have obtained precise and accurate estimates of both absolute and relative cancer risks for MSH6 mutation carriers.

Rare variants in the ATM gene and risk of breast cancer.

IntroductionThe ataxia-telangiectasia mutated (ATM) gene (MIM ID 208900) encodes a protein kinase that plays a significant role in the activation of cellular responses to DNA double-strand breaks through subsequent phosphorylation of central players in the DNA damage-response pathway. Recent studies have confirmed that some specific variants in the ATM gene are associated with increased breast cancer (BC) risk. However, the magnitude of risk and the subset of variants that are pathogenic for breast cancer remain unresolved.MethodsTo investigate the role of ATM in BC susceptibility, we studied 76 rare sequence variants in the ATM gene in a case-control family study of 2,570 cases of breast cancer and 1,448 controls. The variants were grouped into three categories based on their likely pathogenicity, as determined by in silico analysis and analyzed by conditional logistic regression. Likely pathogenic sequence variants were genotyped in 129 family members of 27 carrier probands (15 of which carried c.7271T > G), and modified segregation analysis was used to estimate the BC penetrance associated with these rare ATM variants.ResultsIn the case-control analysis, we observed an odds ratio of 2.55 and 95% confidence interval (CI, 0.54 to 12.0) for the most likely deleterious variants. In the family-based analyses, the maximum-likelihood estimate of the increased risk associated with these variants was hazard ratio (HR) = 6.88 (95% CI, 2.33 to 20.3; P = 0.00008), corresponding to a 60% cumulative risk of BC by age 80 years. Analysis of loss of heterozygosity (LOH) in 18 breast tumors from women carrying likely pathogenic rare sequence variants revealed no consistent pattern of loss of the ATM variant.ConclusionsThe risk estimates from this study suggest that women carrying the pathogenic variant, ATM c.7271T > G, or truncating mutations demonstrate a significantly increased risk of breast cancer with a penetrance that appears similar to that conferred by germline mutations in BRCA2.

Cancer risks for MLH1 and MSH2 mutation carriers

We studied 17,576 members of 166 MLH1 and 224 MSH2 mutation‐carrying families from the Colon Cancer Family Registry. Average cumulative risks of colorectal cancer (CRC), endometrial cancer (EC), and other cancers for carriers were estimated using modified segregation analysis conditioned on ascertainment criteria. Heterogeneity in risks was investigated using a polygenic risk modifier. Average CRC cumulative risks at the age of 70 years (95% confidence intervals) for MLH1 and MSH2 mutation carriers, respectively, were estimated to be 34% (25%–50%) and 47% (36%–60%) for male carriers and 36% (25%–51%) and 37% (27%–50%) for female carriers. Corresponding EC risks were 18% (9.1%–34%) and 30% (18%–45%). A high level of CRC risk heterogeneity was observed (P < 0.001), with cumulative risks at the age of 70 years estimated to follow U‐shaped distributions. For example, 17% of male MSH2 mutation carriers have estimated lifetime risks of 0%–10% and 18% have risks of 90%–100%. Therefore, average risks are similar for the two genes but there is so much individual variation about the average that large proportions of carriers have either very low or very high lifetime cancer risks. Our estimates of CRC and EC cumulative risks for MLH1 and MSH2 mutation carriers are the most precise currently available.

Constitutional Methylation of the BRCA1 Promoter Is Specifically Associated with BRCA1 Mutation-Associated Pathology in Early-Onset Breast Cancer

Women carrying germline mutations in BRCA1 are at a substantially elevated risk of breast cancer and their tumors typically have distinctive morphologic features. We hypothesized that constitutional methylation of the BRCA1 promoter region could give rise to such breast cancers in women. We selected 255 women diagnosed with breast cancer before the age of 40 years for whom BRCA1 germline mutations had not been identified. Of them, 52 had five or more of nine BRCA1 mutation-associated morphologic features (group 1), 39 had four (group 2), and 164 had three or less (group 3). The prevalence of detectable BRCA1 promoter methylation in peripheral blood DNA decreased from 31% to 10% to 5% across groups 1–3, respectively (P = 0.000002), and was significantly greater than the 4% frequency in unaffected controls (P = 0.004). Peripheral blood methylation was associated with a 3.5-fold (95% CI, 1.4–10.5) increased risk of having early onset breast cancer. Methylation was consistently mosaic in the peripheral blood where the estimated allelic frequency of BRCA1 promoter methylation ranged from 0.1% to 17%. Group 1 women, but not group 3 women, with detectable methylation of peripheral blood DNA had high levels of BRCA1 promoter methylation of their tumor DNA, indicating that constitutional BRCA1 methylation strongly predisposes toward the development of BRCA1 methylated tumors that then have features resembling BRCA1 mutated tumors. Screening peripheral blood for BRCA1 promoter methylation might thus predict early-onset breast cancers. This raises the possibility of chemoprevention or other intervention to diminish the risk of developing breast cancer in these women. Cancer Prev Res; 4(1); 23–33. ©2010 AACR. Cancer Prev Res; 4(1); 23–33. ©2010 AACR.

Penetrance Analysis of the PALB2 c.1592delT Founder Mutation

Purpose:PALB2 is a recently identified breast cancer susceptibility gene. We have previously identified in the Finnish population a PALB2 c.1592delT founder truncation mutation that is associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. In the present study, we wanted to assess in more detail the increased risk (hazard ratio, HR) and the age-specific cumulative risk (penetrance) of c.1592delT with regard to susceptibility to breast and other forms of cancer. Experimental Design: Modified segregation analyses fitted under maximum likelihood theory were used to estimate age-specific cumulative risks and HRs using the families of mutation carriers identified from a consecutive series of breast cancer cases unselected for age at onset or family history. Results: We found a substantially increased risk of breast cancer [HR, 6.1; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 2.2-17.2; P = 0.01] equivalent to a 40% (95% CI, 17-77) breast cancer risk by age 70 years, comparable to that for carriers of mutations in BRCA2. We found marginal evidence (P = 0.06) that the HR for breast cancer decreased with age by 4.2% per year (95% CI, 0.2-8.1), from 7.5-fold at age 30 years to 2.0-fold at age 60 years. Conclusions: Our results suggest that it may be appropriate to offer PALB2 c.1592delT mutation testing to Finnish women with breast cancer, especially those with an early age at onset or a family history of breast or related cancers, and to offer carriers the option of participation in extended disease surveillance programs.

A PALB2 mutation associated with high risk of breast cancer

IntroductionAs a group, women who carry germline mutations in partner and localizer of breast cancer 2 susceptibility protein (PALB2) are at increased risk of breast cancer. Little is known about by how much or whether risk differs by mutation or family history, owing to the paucity of studies of cases unselected for family history.MethodsWe screened 1,403 case probands for PALB2 mutations in a population-based study of Australian women with invasive breast cancer stratified by age at onset. The age-specific risk of breast cancer was estimated from the cancer histories of first- and second-degree relatives of mutation-carrying probands using a modified segregation analysis that included a polygenic modifier and was conditioned on the carrier case proband. Further screening for PALB2 c.3113G > A (W1038X) was conducted for 779 families with multiple cases of breast cancer ascertained through family cancer clinics in Australia and New Zealand and 764 population-based controls.ResultsWe found five independent case probands in the population-based sample with the protein-truncating mutation PALB2 c.3113G > A (W1038X); 2 of 695 were diagnosed before age 40 years and 3 of 708 were diagnosed when between ages 40 and 59 years. Both of the two early-onset carrier case probands had very strong family histories of breast cancer. Further testing found that the mutation segregated with breast cancer in these families. No c.3113G > A (W1038X) carriers were found in 764 population-based unaffected controls. The hazard ratio was estimated to be 30.1 (95% confidence interval (CI), 7.5 to 120; P < 0.0001), and the corresponding cumulative risk estimates were 49% (95% CI, 15 to 93) to age 50 and 91% (95% CI, 44 to 100) to age 70. We found another eight families carrying this mutation in 779 families with multiple cases of breast cancer ascertained through family cancer clinics.ConclusionsThe PALB2 c.3113G > A mutation appears to be associated with substantial risks of breast cancer that are of clinical relevance.

Risk of colorectal cancer for carriers of mutations in MUTYH, with and without a family history of cancer

We studied 2332 individuals with monoallelic mutations in MUTYH among 9504 relatives of 264 colorectal cancer (CRC) cases with a MUTYH mutation. We estimated CRC risks through 70 years of age of 7.2% for male carriers of monoallelic mutations (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.6%-11.3%) and 5.6% for female carriers of monoallelic mutations (95% CI, 3.6%-8.8%), irrespective of family history. For monoallelic MUTYH mutation carriers with a first-degree relative with CRC diagnosed by 50 years of age who does not have the MUTYH mutation, risks of CRC were 12.5% for men (95% CI, 8.6%-17.7%) and 10% for women (95% CI, 6.7%-14.4%). Risks of CRC for carriers of monoallelic mutations in MUTYH with a first-degree relative with CRC are sufficiently high to warrant more intensive screening than for the general population.

Cancer risks for monoallelic MUTYH mutation carriers with a family history of colorectal cancer

Cancer risks for a person who has inherited a MUTYH mutation from only one parent (monoallelic mutation carrier) are uncertain. Using the Colon Cancer Family Registry and Newfoundland Familial Colon Cancer Registry, we identified 2,179 first‐ and second‐degree relatives of 144 incident colorectal cancer (CRC) cases who were monoallelic or biallelic mutation carriers ascertained by sampling population complete cancer registries in the United States, Canada and Australia. Using Cox regression weighted to adjust for sampling on family history, we estimated that the country‐, age‐ and sex‐specific standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for monoallelic mutation carriers, compared to the general population, were: 2.04 (95% confidence interval, CI 1.56–2.70; p < 0.001) for CRC, 3.24 (95%CI 2.18–4.98; p < 0.001) for gastric cancer, 3.09 (95%CI 1.07–12.25; p = 0.07) for liver cancer and 2.33 (95%CI 1.18–5.08; p = 0.02) for endometrial cancer. Age‐specific cumulative risks to age 70 years, estimated using the SIRs and US population incidences, were: for CRC, 6% (95%CI 5–8%) for men and 4% (95%CI 3–6%) for women; for gastric cancer, 2% (95%CI 1–3%) for men and 0.7% (95%CI 0.5–1%) for women; for liver cancer, 1% (95%CI 0.3–3%) for men and 0.3% (95%CI 0.1–1%) for women and for endometrial cancer, 4% (95%CI 2–8%). There was no evidence of increased risks for cancers of the brain, pancreas, kidney, lung, breast or prostate. Monoallelic MUTYH mutation carriers with a family history of CRC, such as those identified from screening multiple‐case CRC families, are at increased risk of colorectal, gastric, endometrial and possibly liver cancers.