James H. Gapinski

Tourism's contribution to the demand for London's lively arts

How much of the attendance at Londons lively arts comes from tourism? This question steers the inquiry, which involves model that distinguishes resident demand from tourist demand. Data for the empirical work are time series on individual arts companies, and accordingly the estimation method allows for autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. Estimation indicates that, consonant with time-allocation logic, tourist demand depends importantly upon income whereas resident demand does not. It is shown that tourists, whose arts participation rate averages only 8%, account for 65% of attendance and that the elasticity measuring the attendance response to tourism equals 0.645. It must be concluded that if it were not for overseas visitors to London, it is doubtful whether West End theatres could remain open throughout the summer. Society of West End Theatre (1982, pp. 6–7)

Travel demand functions for Florida bound tourists

Abstract This paper postulates functions for explaining and predicting tourist traffic to Florida. Traditional demand determinants, income and price, are included in the explanatory variable set, and two specifications of the functions are considered. Attention is confined to the auto and plane modes since they account for almost all Florida tourists. The equations are formulated in compliance with specific needs of the State. The data, which cover the period 1961I–1974II, are described in detail. Estimation of the demand equations involves the forty-six quarters ending 1972II with the remaining eight quarters reserved for ex post forecasting. These forecasting results are then compared with those from four naive models. Some effects of the energy crisis appear in the findings, and implications of the analysis for that issue are briefly discussed. Because of multicollinearity the functions are estimated by ridge regression. Straightforward application of ordinary least squares leads to theoretically incorrect algebraic signs in the auto equations and general imprecision in most equations. These anomalies are eliminated by a simple transformation of the data matrix according to the ridge criterion. Models of the type examined here can provide a geographic region with information on important aspects of its tourist population. They can also aid planners in the development of policy.

Steady growth, policy shocks, and speed of adjustment under embodiment and putty-clay

Abstract This inquiry addresses the question of adjustment speed by appealing to a model founded on embodied technical progress and putty-clay capital. It postulates a CES production structure along with static wage-expectations and derives the steady-growth solution. It also derives comparative dynamic properties involving the economic life of capital. Discussion then turns to policy shocks, which disrupt the steady state through separate changes in the rates of saving, progress, and population expansion. Simulations track the responses to those perturbations, disclosing the relationships of adjustment speed to the elasticity of substitution, embodiment rate, capital weight, and changed saving coefficient.

The Panda that grew

Abstract China, the Panda, ranks among the worlds fastest growing economies. Describing that growth, identifying and quantifying its causes, and examining international competitiveness, a growth corollary, on the assumption that China is structurally similar to a sample of 121 countries, are the purposes of this paper. The inquiry presents economic statistics, including those on convergence, by half decade from the prereform years through the Asian currency crisis. It then sketches a model that links growth to determinants that include total factor productivity (TFP). After estimating parameters it quantifies the growth contributions from the separate causes. On international competitiveness, it studies Chinas historical record and projects competitiveness into the near term. The paper closes with policy implications.

Heterogeneous capital, economic growth, and economic development

Abstract This paper asks how much does physical capital contribute to economic growth. It postulates that capital is heterogeneous because of embodied progress, and it structures the inquiry to account for differences in economic development. Embedded in data that cover 120 nations over 41 years are 35 derived capital stock series, whose characteristics include average ages stratified by development state. Growth accountancy proceeds by regression analysis cast in a production function context and repeated for each capital type. Those results help to establish the growth contributions of labor quantity and quality and capital quantity and quality. They also bear on neoclassical convergence.

Nonlinear Estimation of the CES Production Function: Sampling Distributions and Tests in Small Samples

Over the past decade the parameters of the CES production function have been estimated from a variety of regression forms by a variety of regression techniques. One method of attack has been to estimate the CES parameters through the direct application of nonlinear regression procedures to the production function itself. Notable in this regard are Bodkin and Klein [1], Kumar and Asher [7], and Weitzman [11]. Despite the growing use of the nonlinear methods, little has been discovered about their econometric properties. Attempts have been made to fill the enormous void between

A model of Yugoslav economic performance

Abstract This paper presents a model of Yugoslav economic performance. It begins by considering key features of the system, which involves 28 identities and 39 structural equations estimated per annum using a new and consistent date file that generally covers the period 1952 to 1984. Next it sketches the equation network embedded in the paradigm, reviews the solution procedure, and checks the solution accuracy by dynamic simulation. To further describe the models properties and to demonstrate its ability to exercise remedial policy proposals, the paper offers a baseline simulation through 1995 and reports the simulations of a few hypothetical corrective actions.

The Growth of Tigers, Elephants, and Other Metaphorical Creatures under Heterogeneous Capital

Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan are the East Asian Tigers, and true to the metaphor, they have been ferocious in their economic growth. During the decade of the 1950s, their real GDP grew at an annual rate of 6.5 percent. That already-rapid rate soared to 9.3 percent during the 1960s and rose again to 9.4 percent during the 1970s before moderating to 7.5 percent during the global slowdown of the 1980s. On balance the Tigers grew at an annual rate of 8.5 percent over the entire forty-year period. Equally impressive has been their record of annual labor productivity growth, with decade average percentages of 4.3, 6.3, 6.0, and 5.4 respectively and with an overall rate of 5.7 percent. Such ferocious growth is phenomenal, and to some authorities it is simply miraculous [40, 1; 38, 3, 15]. The Elephants, countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), plodded along a path that shows just how impressive the Tiger run has been. In the 1950s and 1960s, the Elephants had real GDP grow annually at 4.5 percent and 5.2 percent respectively whereas in the 1970s and 1980s they grew yearly at 3.4 percent and 2.6 percent for a four-decade average of 3.9 percent. Similarly, their productivity growth occurred at annual percentages of 3.9, 4.2, 2.1, and 1.7 across the respective decades making the forty-year average 3.0 percent. Thus, in rough terms, the Tigers expanded twice as fast as the Elephants. Even more strikingly, they grew in productivity more than three times as fast as the Latin Rim Bulls--Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela. At one time the Bulls were believed to have enormous growth potential if only because of their geographic proximity and business ties to the United States. Nonetheless, they managed an average productivity growth rate of merely 1.7 percent per annum over the forty-year history.

Questions on the Economics of Saving

How has saving behaved in the United States, in other parts of the developed world, and in developing countries? What are the theories behind saving? Does a fiscal deficit affect saving unfavorably? Does private saving exactly offset public saving? Did macro policy of the 1980s stimulate saving and, with it, economic performance? How does saving influence the distribution of income? How does saving bear on economic growth and on the transition to growth? And how important is saving in the process of development?

Investment fact and fancy in Yugoslavia

This paper examines the roles of capacity and finance in Yugoslav investment. Gross investment in producer durables is treated individually for industry, other nonagriculture, social agriculture, and private agriculture along stock-adjustment or, alternatively, flow-adjustment lines. Inventory investment reflects sales and hoarding considerations. Each specification includes two types of finance; namely, intended credit and, consonant with the firms soft budget contraint, unintended credit. Tested on newly complied data, the functions indicate by statistical significance that capacity and finance matter in industry and other while capacity, not finance, matters in agriculture and inventory. Implications for development policy conclude the discussion. Alice did not like shaiking hands with either of them first, for fear of hurting the other ones feelings; so, as the best way out of the difficulty, she took hold of both hands at once: the next moment they were dancing round in a ring. Lewis Carroll Throug...