James M. MacDonald

Contracts, Markets, and Prices: Organizing the Production and Use of Agricultural Commodities

Production and marketing contracts govern 36 percent of the value of U.S. agricultural production, up from 12 percent in 1969. Contracts are now the primary method of handling sales of many livestock commodities, including milk, hogs, and broilers, and of major crops such as sugar beets, fruit, and processing tomatoes. Use of contracts is closely related to farm size; farms with

Demand, Information, and Competition: Why Do Food Prices Fall at Seasonal Demand Peaks?

1 million or more in sales have nearly half their production under contract. For producers, contracting can reduce income risks of price and production variability, ensure market access, and provide higher returns for differentiated farm products. For processors and other buyers, vertical coordination through contracting is a way to ensure the flow of products and to obtain differentiated products, ensure traceability for health concerns, and guarantee certain methods of production. The traditional spot market-though it still governs nearly 60 percent of the value of agricultural production- has difficulty providing accurate price signals for products geared to new consumer demands (such as produce raised and certified as organic or identity-preserved crops modified for special attributes). We are likely to see a continuing shift to more explicit forms of vertical coordination, through contracts and processor ownership, as a means to ensure more consistent product quantity and quality.

Profits, Costs, and the Changing Structure of Dairy Farming

Prices for seasonal food products fall at demand peaks. Price declines are not driven by falling agricultural input prices; indeed, farm to retail margins narrow sharply. I use electronic scanner data from a sample of US supermarkets to show that seasonal price declines are closely linked to market concentration, and are much larger in markets with several rivals than where a single brand dominates. Seasonal demand increases reduce the effective costs of informative advertising, and increased informative advertising by retailers and manufacturers in turn may allow for increased market information and greater price sensitivity on the part of buyers.

Agricultural Contracting Update: Contracts in 2008

U.S. dairy production is consolidating into fewer but larger farms. This report uses data from several USDA surveys to detail that consolidation and to analyze the financial drivers of consolidation. Specifically, larger farms realize lower production costs. Although small dairy farms realize higher revenue per hundredweight of milk sold, the cost advantages of larger size allow large farms to be profitable, on average, even while most small farms are unable to earn enough to replace their capital. Further survey evidence, as well as the financial data, suggest that consolidation is likely to continue.

The Transformation of U.S. Livestock Agriculture: Scale, Efficiency, and Risks

Marketing and production contracts covered 39 percent of the value of U.S. agricultural production in 2008, up from 36 percent in 2001, and a substantial increase over 28 percent in 1991 and 11 percent in 1969. However, aggregate contract use has stabilized in recent years and no longer suggests a strong trend. Contracts between farmers and their buyers are reached prior to harvest (or before the completion stage for livestock)and govern the terms under which products are transferred from the farm. Contracts are far more likely to be used on large farms than on small farms, and they form one element in a package of risk management tools available to farmers. Production contracts are used widely in livestock production, while marketing contracts are important to the production of many crops.

The Minimum Wage, Restaurant Prices, and Labor Market Structure

U.S. livestock production has shifted to much larger and more specialized farms, and the various stages of input provision, farm production, and processing are now much more tightly coordinated through formal contracts and shared ownership of assets. Important financial advantages have driven these structural changes, which in turn have boosted productivity growth in the livestock sector. But structural changes can also generate environmental and health risks for society, as industrialization concentrates animals and animal wastes in localized areas. This report relies on farm-level data to detail the nature, causes, and effects of structural changes in livestock production.

Scale Economies and Consolidation in Hog Slaughter

Using store-level and aggregated Consumer Price Index data, we show that restaurant prices rise in response to minimum wage increases under several sources of identifying variation. We introduce a general model of employment determination that implies minimum wage hikes cause prices to rise in competitive labor markets but potentially fall in monopsonistic environments. Furthermore, the model implies employment and prices are always negatively related. Therefore, our empirical results provide evidence against the importance of monopsony power for understanding small observed employment responses to minimum wage changes. Our estimated price responses challenge other explanations of the small employment response, too.

Small Farms in the United States: Persistence Under Pressure

We use establishment based panel data to estimate a cost function which identifies the role of scale economies in hog slaughter consolidation. We find modest by extensive technological scale economies in the 1990s, and they became more important over time. But wages rose sharply with plant size through the 1970s and those wage premiums generated a pecuniary scale diseconomy that largely offset the effects of technological scale economies. The size-wage relation disappeared in the 1980; with growing technological scale economies and disappearing pecuniary diseconomies, large plants realized growing cost advantages over smaller plants, and production shifted to larger plants.

Technological Change and Economies of Scale in U.S. Poultry Processing

Ninety-one percent of U.S. farms are classified as small—gross cash farm income (GCFI) of less than

Railroad Deregulation: Pricing Reforms, Shipper Responses, and the Effects on Labor

250,000. About 60 percent of these small farms are very small, generating GCFI of less than