James M. Wilczak

Interpretation of Enhanced Integrated Water Vapor Bands Associated with Extratropical Cyclones: Their Formation and Connection to Tropical Moisture

Abstract Trajectory analysis using a weather prediction model is performed for five cases to interpret the formation of enhanced bands of vertically integrated water vapor (IWV) in the central and eastern Pacific that are frequently seen in satellite images from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager. The connection of these enhanced bands with poleward water vapor transport from the Tropics is also examined. It is shown that the leading end of the enhanced IWV bands (defined as the most eastward and poleward end) is the manifestation of moisture convergence in the warm conveyor belt associated with extratropical cyclones, while the bands away from the leading end result mainly from moisture convergence along the trailing cold fronts. There is evidence that some enhanced IWV bands may be associated with a direct poleward transport of tropical moisture along the IWV bands from the Tropics all the way to the extratropics. The trajectory analysis, together with the seasonal mean sea level pressure analysis, ind...

Assessment of an ensemble of seven real-time ozone forecasts over eastern North America during the summer of 2004

The real-time forecasts of ozone (O 3 ) from seven air quality forecast models (AQFMs) are statistically evaluated against observations collected during July and August of 2004 (53 days) through the Aerometric Information Retrieval Now (AIRNow) network at roughly 340 monitoring stations throughout the eastern United States and southern Canada. One of the first ever real-time ensemble O 3 forecasts, created by combining the seven separate forecasts with equal weighting, is also evaluated in terms of standard statistical measures, threshold statistics, and variance analysis. The ensemble based on the mean of the seven models and the ensemble based on the median are found to have significantly more temporal correlation to the observed daily maximum 1-hour average and maximum 8-hour average O 3 concentrations than any individual model. However, root-mean-square errors (RMSE) and skill scores show that the usefulness of the uncorrected ensembles is limited by positive O 3 biases in all of the AQFMs. The ensembles and AQFM statistical measures are reevaluated using two simple bias correction algorithms for forecasts at each monitor location: subtraction of the mean bias and a multiplicative ratio adjustment, where corrections are based on the full 53 days of available comparisons. The impact the two bias correction techniques have on RMSE, threshold statistics, and temporal variance is presented. For the threshold statistics a preferred bias correction technique is found to be model dependent and related to whether the model overpredicts or underpredicts observed temporal O 3 variance. All statistical measures of the ensemble mean forecast, and particularly the bias-corrected ensemble forecast, are found to be insensitive to the results of any particular model. The higher correlation coefficients, low RMSE, and better threshold statistics for the ensembles compared to any individual model point to their preference as a real-time O 3 forecast.

Sea surface drag coefficients in the Risø Air Sea Experiment

This study examines the dependence of the computed drag coefficient on wind speed, stability, fetch, flux sampling problems, and method of calculation of the drag coefficient. The analysis is applied to data collected at a tower 2 km off the coast of Denmark during the Riso Air Sea Experiment (RASEX). Various flux sampling problems are evaluated to eliminate unreliable fluxes. Large drag coefficients are observed with weak large-scale flow. However, the value of the computed drag coefficient at weak wind speeds is sensitive to flux sampling problems and the method of calculation of the drag coefficient, which might be a general characteristic of weak winds. The drag coefficient is significantly larger for short fetch conditions, particularly at strong wind speeds.

The Accuracy of Solar Irradiance Calculations Used in Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

Abstract In this paper, solar irradiance forecasts made by mesoscale numerical weather prediction models are compared with observations taken during three air-quality experiments in various parts of the United States. The authors evaluated the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Eta Model. The observations were taken during the 2000 Texas Air Quality Experiment (TexAQS), the 2000 Central California Ozone Study (CCOS), and the New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) 2002. The accuracy of the model forecast irradiances show a strong dependence on the aerosol optical depth. Model errors on the order of 100 W m−2 are possible when the aerosol optical depth exceeds 0.1. For smaller aerosol optical depths, the climatological attenuation used in the models yields solar irradiance estimates that are in good agreement with the observations.

Convective Boundary Layer Depth: Improved Measurement by Doppler Radar Wind Profiler Using Fuzzy Logic Methods

Abstract A new method for estimating the mixing depth of the atmospheres convective boundary layer is developed for use with wind-profiling radars. This method applies “fuzzy logic” methods to give an improved determination of the atmospheric signal in radar spectra. The method then applies fuzzy logic again to calculate the depth of the convective boundary layer, using vertical profiles of both radar-derived signal-to-noise ratio and variance of vertical velocity. A comparison with independent boundary layer depth observations at two radar wind profiler sites shows that the new method gives significantly more accurate estimates of the boundary layer depth (correlation coefficients of 0.91 and 0.96) than does a standard method (correlation coefficients of 0.14 and 0.80). Also, the new method reduces the absolute error of the mixing-depth estimates to a level similar to the vertical range resolution of the profilers.

Ground-Based Remote Sensing of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer: 25 Years of Progress

The role of ground-based remote sensors in boundary-layer research is reviewed, emphasizing the contributions of radars, sodars, and lidars. The review begins with a brief comparison of the state of remote sensors in boundary-layer research 25 years ago with its present-day status. Next, a summary of the current capabilities of remote sensors for boundary-layer studies demonstrates that for boundary-layer depth and for profiles of many mean quantities, remote sensors offer some of the most accurate measurements available. Similar accuracies are in general not found for most turbulence parameters. Important contributions of remote sensors to our understanding of the structure and dynamics of various boundary-layer phenomena or processes are then discussed, including the sea breeze, convergence boundaries, dispersion, and boundary-layer cloud systems. The review concludes with a discussion of the likely future role of remote sensors in boundary-layer research.

Pressure structure functions and spectra for locally isotropic turbulence

Beginning with the known relationship between the pressure structure function and the fourth-order two-point correlation of velocity derivatives, we obtain a new theory relating the pressure structure function and spectrum to fourth-order velocity structure functions. This new theory is valid for all Reynolds numbers and for all spatial separations and wavenumbers. We do not use the joint Gaussian assumption that was used in previous theory. The only assumptions are local homogeneity, local isotropy, incompressibility, and use of the Navier-Stokes equation. Specific formulae are given for the mean-squared pressure gradient, the correlation of pressure gradients, the viscous range of the pressure structure function, and the pressure variance. Of course, pressure variance is a descriptor of the energy-containing range. Therefore, for any Reynolds number, the formula for pressure variance requires the more restrictive assumption of isotropy. For the case of large Reynolds numbers, formulae are given for the inertial range of the pressure structure function and spectrum and of the pressure-gradient correlation; these are valid on the basis of local isotropy, as are the formulae for mean-squared pressure gradient and the viscous range of the pressure structure function. Using the experimentally verified extension to fourth-order velocity structure functions of Kolmogorov’s theory, we obtain r4I3 and kp7/3 laws for the inertial range of the pressure structure function and spectrum. The modifications of these power laws to account for the effects of turbulence intermittency are also given. New universal constants are defined; these require experimental evaluation. The pressure structure function is sensitive to slight departures from local isotropy, implying stringent conditions on experimental data, but applicability of the previous theory is likewise constrained. The results are also sensitive to compressibility.

A Similarity Analysis of the Structure of Airflow over Surface Waves

Abstract Previous field investigations of the wave-induced pressure field have focused on determination of the momentum input from wind to the surface waves. This is useful for the estimation of wave growth rate and, in particular, the wave growth parameter β. Due to the difficult nature of experimental study of airflow very close to the wave surface, it has been necessary to extrapolate elevated measurements of the wave-induced pressure field to the surface. This practice may be incorrect without adequate knowledge of the complex vertical structure of the pressure field. In addition, the wave-induced pressure and velocity fields are coupled to the near-surface turbulence. Hence, understanding the nature of the wave-induced flow fields is critical for modeling of the near-surface wind and wave fields. Utilizing a simple similarity hypothesis, detailed vertical structure of the wave-induced pressure and velocity components is examined. Results of this analysis are presented using data obtained in the sprin...

Heat Flux in the Coastal Zone

Various difficulties with application of Monin–Obukhov similarity theory are surveyed including the influence of growing waves, advection and internal boundary-layer development. These complications are normally important with offshore flow. The transfer coefficient for heat is computed from eddy correlation data taken at a mast two kilometres off the Danish coast in RASEX. For these coastal zone data, the thermal roughness length shows no well-defined relation to the momentum roughness length or roughness Reynolds number, in contrast to previous theories. The variation of the momentum roughness length is dominated by wave state. In contrast, the thermal roughness length shows significant dependence on wave state only for small values of wave age where the mixing is apparently enhanced by wave breaking. The development of thin internal boundary layers with offshore flow substantially reduces the heat transfer and thermal roughness length but has no obvious influence on momentum roughness length. A new formulation of the thermal roughness length based on the internal boundary-layer depth is calibrated to the RASEX data. For the very stable case, the turbulence is mainly detached from the surface and existing formulations do not apply.As an alternative to adjusting the thermal roughness length, the transfer coefficient is related directly to the stability and the internal boundary-layer depth. This avoids specification of roughness lengths resulting from the usual integration of the non-dimensional temperature function. The resulting stability function is simpler than previous ones and satisfies free convection similarity theory without introduction of the gustiness factor. The internal boundary layer also influences the moisture transfer coefficient.

Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of Boundary-Layer Structure Observed with a Radar Wind Profiler and RASS

Abstract A wind profiler-radio acoustic sounding system at Denver collected hourly wind and virtual-temperature data through the boundary layer in the latter half of 1989. Analyzed monthly averages of 24-h time-height cross sections of the daily measurements show a number of significant features. The growth of the nocturnal temperature inversion is observed, followed by a rapid transition to a deep daytime mixed layer. The progression from a strong diurnal temperature signal in the summer to weak diurnal variability in the winter is documented. A mean upslope wind component is found in the middle-to-late afternoon in the summer and autumn months, with a reverse, return flow aloft. Boundary-layer winds show a strong inertial oscillation, with the phase closely following the diurnal heating cycle. Perturbation winds in the return-flow region aloft oscillate almost 180° out of phase with the boundary-layer winds.