James O. Pope

On the identification of a Pliocene time slice for data–model comparison

The characteristics of the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP: 3.264–3.025 Ma BP) have been examined using geological proxies and climate models. While there is agreement between models and data, details of regional climate differ. Uncertainties in prescribed forcings and in proxy data limit the utility of the interval to understand the dynamics of a warmer than present climate or evaluate models. This uncertainty comes, in part, from the reconstruction of a time slab rather than a time slice, where forcings required by climate models can be more adequately constrained. Here, we describe the rationale and approach for identifying a time slice(s) for Pliocene environmental reconstruction. A time slice centred on 3.205 Ma BP (3.204–3.207 Ma BP) has been identified as a priority for investigation. It is a warm interval characterized by a negative benthic oxygen isotope excursion (0.21–0.23‰) centred on marine isotope stage KM5c (KM5.3). It occurred during a period of orbital forcing that was very similar to present day. Climate model simulations indicate that proxy temperature estimates are unlikely to be significantly affected by orbital forcing for at least a precession cycle centred on the time slice, with the North Atlantic potentially being an important exception.

Unprecedented springtime retreat of Antarctic sea ice in 2016

During Austral spring 2016 Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) decreased at a record rate of 75 × 103 km2 day-1, which was 46% faster than the mean rate and 18% faster than in any previous spring season during the satellite era. The decrease of sea ice area was also exceptional and 28% greater than the mean. Anomalous negative retreat occurred in all sectors of the Antarctic, but was greatest in the Weddell and Ross Seas. Record negative SIE anomalies for the day of year were recorded from 3 November 2016 until 9 April 2017. Rapid ice retreat in the Weddell Sea took place in strong northerly flow after an early maximum ice extent in late August. Rapid ice retreat occurred in November in the Ross Sea when surface pressure was at a record high level, with the Southern Annular Mode at its most negative for that month since 1968.

An assessment of the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model representation of near‐surface meteorological variables over West Antarctica

Despite the recent significant climatic changes observed over West Antarctica, which include large warming in central West Antarctica and accelerated ice loss, adequate validation of regional simulations of meteorological variables are rare for this region. To address this gap, results from a recent version of the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) covering West Antarctica at a high horizontal resolution of 5 km were validated against near-surface meteorological observations. The model employed physics options that included the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer scheme, the WRF Single Moment 5-Class cloud microphysics scheme, the new version of the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for both shortwave and longwave radiation, and the Noah land surface model. Our evaluation finds this model to be a useful tool for realistically capturing the near-surface meteorological conditions. It showed high skill in simulating surface pressure (correlation ≥0.97), good skill for wind speed with better correlation at inland sites (0.7-0.8) compared to coastal sites (0.3-0.6), generally good representation of strong wind events, and good skill for temperature in winter (correlation ≥0.8). The main shortcomings of this configuration of Polar WRF are an occasional failure to properly represent transient cyclones and their influence on coastal winds, an amplified diurnal temperature cycle in summer, and a general tendency to underestimate the wind speed at inland sites in summer. Additional sensitivity studies were performed to quantify the impact of the choice of boundary layer scheme and surface boundary conditions. It is shown that the model is most sensitive to the choice of boundary layer scheme, with the representation of the temperature diurnal cycle in summer significantly improved by selecting the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic boundary layer scheme. By contrast, the model results showed little sensitivity to whether the horizontal resolution was 5 or 15 km.

Can uncertainties in sea ice albedo reconcile patterns of data-model discord for the Pliocene and 20th/21st centuries?

General Circulation Model simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Myr ago) currently underestimate the level of warming that proxy data suggest existed at high latitudes, with discrepancies of up to 11°C for sea surface temperature estimates and 17°C for surface air temperature estimates. Sea ice has a strong influence on high-latitude climates, partly due to the albedo feedback. We present results demonstrating the effects of reductions in minimum sea ice albedo limits in general circulation model simulations of the mPWP. While mean annual surface air temperature increases of up to 6°C are observed in the Arctic, the maximum decrease in model-data discrepancies is just 0.81°C. Mean annual sea surface temperatures increase by up to 2°C, with a maximum model-data discrepancy improvement of 1.31°C. It is also suggested that the simulation of observed 21st century sea ice decline could be influenced by the adjustment of the sea ice albedo parameterization.

The impacts of El Niño on the observed sea ice budget of West Antarctica

We assess the impact of El Nino-induced wind changes on seasonal West Antarctic sea ice concentrations using reanalysis data and sea ice observations. A novel ice budget analysis reveals that in autumn a previously identified east-west dipole of sea ice concentration anomalies is formed by dynamic and thermodynamic processes in response to El Nino-generated circulation changes. The dipole features decreased (increased) concentration in the Ross Sea (Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas). Thermodynamic processes and feedback make a substantial contribution to ice anomalies in all seasons. The eastward propagation of this anomaly is partly driven by mean sea ice drift rather than anomalous winds. Our results demonstrate that linkages between sea ice anomalies and atmospheric variability are highly nonlocal in space and time. Therefore, we assert that caution should be applied when interpreting the results of studies that attribute sea ice changes without accounting for such temporally and spatially remote linkages.

Less reality, more security

The concept of nonlocality, whereby a local operation on one state can instantaneously affect the properties of another spatially-separated state, has been investigated through the violation of Bell inequalities. Realisations of such violations in the laboratory paved the way for not only experimental justification of quantum theory, but also one of the subjects first significant applications in cryptography. The violation of Bell inequalities can be used as an indicator for security in the task of key distribution. Furthermore, it has more recently been shown that such security is guaranteed by the violations alone, regardless of assumptions about the workings and trustworthiness of the devices provided for the task. We provide a brief history of Bell inequalities and their use in the development of device-independent key distribution, which is less reliant on the validity of quantum theory than previously thought.

Turing, ciphers and quanta

Alan Turing has certainly contributed to a widespread belief that the quest for a perfect, unbreakable, cipher is a futile pursuit. The ancient art of concealing information has, in the past, been matched by the ingenuity of code-breakers, but no longer! With the advent of quantum cryptography, the hopes of would-be eavesdroppers have been dashed, perhaps for good. Moreover, recent research, building on schemes that were invented decades ago to perform quantum cryptography, shows that secure communication certified by a sufficient violation of a Bell inequality makes a seemingly insane scenario possible—devices of unknown or dubious provenance, even those that are manufactured by our enemies, can be safely used for secure communication, including key distribution. All that is needed to implement this bizarre and powerful form of cryptography is a loophole-free test of a Bell inequality, which is on the cusp of technological feasibility. We provide a brief overview of the intriguing connections between Bell inequalities and cryptography and describe how studies of quantum entanglement and the foundations of quantum theory influence the way we may protect information in the future.

The Springtime Influence of Natural Tropical Pacific Variability on the Surface Climate of the Ross Ice Shelf, West Antarctica: Implications for Ice Shelf Thinning

Observational records starting in the 1950s show West Antarctica is amongst the most rapidly warming regions on the planet. Together with increased intrusions of warm circumpolar deep water (CDW) onto the continental shelf due to local wind forcing (the primary mechanism in recent decades), this has resulted in enhanced surface and basal melting of floating ice shelves and an associated acceleration and thinning of West Antarctic outlet glaciers, increasing the rate of global sea level rise. In this study, it is shown that during the austral spring season, significant surface warming across West Antarctica has shifted westward to the Ross Ice Shelf in recent decades in response to enhanced cyclonic circulation over the Ross Sea. These circulation changes are caused by a Rossby wave train forced by increasing sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific, which is tied to the springtime shift of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) to its negative phase after 1992. While the local wind trends enhance warm air advection and surface warming across the Ross Ice Shelf, the strong easterly component of the wind trends reduces the likelihood for intrusions of CDW onto the continental shelf in this region. This suggests that during spring there are competing mechanisms of surface and basal melting of the Ross Ice Shelf, both of which are closely tied to natural tropical Pacific decadal variability. Moreover, that the projected transition of the IPO back to its positive phase in the coming decade, though likely to reduce surface warming on the Ross Ice Shelf, could increase the risk of disintegration of Ross Sea ice shelves due to increased intrusions of CDW and enhanced basal melting.