Steven J. Pickering

On the identification of a Pliocene time slice for data–model comparison

The characteristics of the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP: 3.264–3.025 Ma BP) have been examined using geological proxies and climate models. While there is agreement between models and data, details of regional climate differ. Uncertainties in prescribed forcings and in proxy data limit the utility of the interval to understand the dynamics of a warmer than present climate or evaluate models. This uncertainty comes, in part, from the reconstruction of a time slab rather than a time slice, where forcings required by climate models can be more adequately constrained. Here, we describe the rationale and approach for identifying a time slice(s) for Pliocene environmental reconstruction. A time slice centred on 3.205 Ma BP (3.204–3.207 Ma BP) has been identified as a priority for investigation. It is a warm interval characterized by a negative benthic oxygen isotope excursion (0.21–0.23‰) centred on marine isotope stage KM5c (KM5.3). It occurred during a period of orbital forcing that was very similar to present day. Climate model simulations indicate that proxy temperature estimates are unlikely to be significantly affected by orbital forcing for at least a precession cycle centred on the time slice, with the North Atlantic potentially being an important exception.

Stacking disorder in ice I

Traditionally, ice I was considered to exist in two well-defined crystalline forms at ambient pressure: stable hexagonal ice (ice Ih) and metastable cubic ice (ice Ic). However, it is becoming increasingly evident that what has been called cubic ice in the past does not have a structure consistent with the cubic crystal system. Instead, it is a stacking-disordered material containing cubic sequences interlaced with hexagonal sequences, which is termed stacking-disordered ice (ice Isd). In this article, we summarise previous work on ice with stacking disorder including ice that was called cubic ice in the past. We also present new experimental data which shows that ice which crystallises after heterogeneous nucleation in water droplets containing solid inclusions also contains stacking disorder even at freezing temperatures of around -15 °C. This supports the results from molecular simulations, that the structure of ice that crystallises initially from supercooled water is always stacking-disordered and that this metastable ice can transform to the stable hexagonal phase subject to the kinetics of recrystallization. We also show that stacking disorder in ice which forms from water droplets is quantitatively distinct from ice made via other routes. The emerging picture of ice I is that of a very complex material which frequently contains stacking disorder and this stacking disorder can vary in complexity depending on the route of formation and thermal history.

AI-based algorithms for protein surface comparisons

Many current methods for protein analysis depend on the detection of similarity in either the primary sequence, or the overall tertiary structure (the Calpha atoms of the protein backbone). These common sequences or structures may imply similar functional characteristics or active properties. Active sites and ligand binding sites usually occur on or near the surface of the protein; so similarly shaped surface regions could imply similar functions. We investigate various methods for describing the shape properties of protein surfaces and for comparing them. Our current work uses algorithms from computer vision to describe the protein surfaces, and methods from graph theory to compare the surface regions. Early results indicate that we can successfully match a family of related ligand binding sites, and find their similarly shaped surface regions. This method of surface analysis could be extended to help identify unknown surface regions for possible ligand binding or active sites.

Can uncertainties in sea ice albedo reconcile patterns of data-model discord for the Pliocene and 20th/21st centuries?

General Circulation Model simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Myr ago) currently underestimate the level of warming that proxy data suggest existed at high latitudes, with discrepancies of up to 11°C for sea surface temperature estimates and 17°C for surface air temperature estimates. Sea ice has a strong influence on high-latitude climates, partly due to the albedo feedback. We present results demonstrating the effects of reductions in minimum sea ice albedo limits in general circulation model simulations of the mPWP. While mean annual surface air temperature increases of up to 6°C are observed in the Arctic, the maximum decrease in model-data discrepancies is just 0.81°C. Mean annual sea surface temperatures increase by up to 2°C, with a maximum model-data discrepancy improvement of 1.31°C. It is also suggested that the simulation of observed 21st century sea ice decline could be influenced by the adjustment of the sea ice albedo parameterization.