James P. Minas

A spatial optimisation model for multi-period landscape level fuel management to mitigate wildfire impacts

Elevated fuel loads are contributing to an increase in the occurrence of, and area burned by, severe wildfires in many regions across the globe. In an attempt to reverse this trend, fire and land management agencies are investing in extensive fuel management programs. However, the planning of fuel treatment activities poses complicated decision-making problems with spatial and temporal dimensions. Here, we present a mixed integer programming model for spatially explicit multi-period scheduling of fuel treatments. The model provides a flexible framework that allows for landscape heterogeneity and a range of ecological and operational considerations and constraints. The model’s functionality is demonstrated on a series of hypothetical test landscapes and a number of implementation issues are discussed.

A review of operations research methods applicable to wildfire management

Across the globe, wildfire-related destruction appears to be worsening despite increased fire suppression expenditure. At the same time, wildfire management is becoming increasingly complicated owing to factors such as an expanding wildland–urban interface, interagency resource sharing and the recognition of the beneficial effects of fire on ecosystems. Operations research is the use of analytical techniques such as mathematical modelling to analyse interactions between people, resources and the environment to aid decision-making in complex systems. Fire managers operate in a highly challenging decision environment characterised by complexity, multiple conflicting objectives and uncertainty. We assert that some of these difficulties can be resolved with the use of operations research methods. We present a range of operations research methods and discuss their applicability to wildfire management with illustrative examples drawn from the wildfire and disaster operations research literature.

Conceptualization and demonstration of the Incident Controller's Problem

Coordinated response to an emergency is typically the responsibility of a single decision making party referred to as the Incident Controller, who must develop solutions before the nature of the incident and response requirements are fully known. In this study, we argue four concepts necessary to build a quintessential model of the Incident Controllers Problem, and demonstrate their implications with a set of numerical experiments. This problem is characterized by the on-going discovery of information, creating an inherently iterative decision making environment in which the Incident Controller updates solutions employing a mix of complementary and potentially perishable response options, to minimize some undesirable condition while seeking efficiency. Our findings support the utility of decision making habits observed in the field, and underscore the need for better recognition of the distinctive nature of decision making under these conditions. We argue the quintessential concepts necessary to modeling emergency response.We demonstrate those concepts in a set of deterministic simulation experiments.Conceptual model allows relation of multiple hazard types, including business examples.Demonstration results illustrate the saliency of the quintessential concepts.Underscores need for recognition of the distinctive nature of emergency response.