John Handmer

Uncertainty, sustainability and change☆

Abstract This article offers an exploration of connections between sustainability, risk and uncertainty. Global environmental change and human sustainability are characterized as the challenge of managing change in dynamic systems riddled with uncertainty. A number of disciplines and intellectual traditions, including systems thinking, risk and ecology, are surveyed briefly as sources to inform an approach to this challenge. Approaches to managing risk and uncertainty are discussed, a typology of resilience constructed, and an approach to sustainability defined. The discussion is based on the three imperatives of constant change, everpresent uncertainty and ignorance, and an increasingly stressed interdependency between humans and the biosphere.

Environmental management and governance: intergovernmental approaches to hazards and sustainability.

Problems for environmental management are taking on a new urgency. This book addresses aspects of environmental management that raise fundamental questions about governmental roles and the relationship of humans to the environment. It examines the interaction of local and national governments and the strengths and weaknesses of co-operative vs. coercive environmental management, through a focus on the management of natural hazards. Leading experts in the field examine new and innovative environmental management and planning programmes with particular focus on North America and Australia. This book offers a new understanding of environmental problems and explores the appropriate policy mix that must be developed for environmental management to strive towards environmental sustainability.

Contradictions in Sustainability

Issues of environment and development are increasingly being analysed within the framework offered by sustainability and sustainable development . This article explores a number of deep-seated contradictions and tensions that exist within these concepts at least as they are currently construed. It is noted that these contradictions are often glossed over in intellectual and policy debates, but are nonetheless profound and should be made explicit. The contradictions identified and discussed in the paper are as follows: –the paradox of technology (cause or cure?); –uncertainty and decision-making (humility or arrogance in the face of ignorance?); –intergenerational and intragenerational equity (a politically impossible trade-off?); –economic growth versus ecological limits (is ‘sustainable development’ an oxymoron?); –the reconciliation of individual and collective interests, applying both to individuals in their society, and nation states in the international community; –the potential conflict between the diversity of democracy and purposeful action; –differing kinds of resilience in the face of change (resistance, marginal change, and adaptability); and –the question of whether or not optimization is anti-sustainability. In conclusion we ask what the implications of this labyrinth of contradictions are for moving towards a sustainable state. Are these contradictions too profound and thus insurmountable, or does Homo sapiens apparently innate ability to live with contradiction and logical inconsistency offer a way out?

The Role of Unofficial Flood Warning Systems

Most research on flood warning systems is pre-occupied with official or formal systems designed by government organizations to warn other agencies and the public-at-risk. Yet those at risk may obtain much of their flood-related information from unofficial sources, such as personal networks and direct observation. Despite this, informal or unofficial systems are often afforded little official credence, even though empirical evidence indicates that formal flood warnings often fail. Exploration of the value of ‘folk’ or local, as opposed to specialist-technical, knowledge suggests that such knowledge satisfies a range of important needs which are likely to be unfulfilled by official warnings. The scope for personal networks to relay warnings and to contribute local knowledge towards system design appears to be large.This paper examines the widespread use of unofficial flood warnings and the advantages of integrating them with official ones. The reality of unofficial warning systems should be recognized. Efforts should be directed towards finding ways of integrating them with official ones — with the aim of enhancing overall warning system performance from the perspective of those at risk: that is, system reliability, accuracy, credibility and salience. Empirical evidence on official flood warning performance, the perceived need for official systems among flood-plain occupants and their levels of satisfaction with such systems, indicates that the merits of an integrated approach could be large, especially as flood-plain occupants are often willing to participate in flood warning systems.

Urban containment policy and exposure to natural hazards: Is there a connection?

Planners throughout much of the past century have advocated containment of urban sprawl through regulatory restrictions that include growth boundaries, green belts and limits to utility extensions. Containment is widely practised in Europe and is a key component of smart growth being advocated by a number of interest groups in the USA. In fact, it has already been incorporated in growth management policies in use in 73 US metropolitan areas. In this paper, we argue that containment may have a serious side-effect. It can lead to increased exposure to natural hazards and higher losses in disasters. However, we also show that measures are available to counter this effect, if planners recognize the threat and take vigorous steps to contain hazards, adjust building techniques or limit the development of potentially hazardous areas.

FLOOD POLICY REVERSAL IN AUSTRALIA

In 1977 the Government of New South Wales introduced a flood prone lands policy which attempted to break with the past emphasis on structural works. Cornerstones of the policy were the preparation of floodplain maps, and use of the 1:100 (100 year or 1%) flood to delineate floodplains and 1:20 flood for floodway definition. The fiscal and regulatory elements of the policy were to be applied more or less uniformly within the two zones. At first there was little effective opposition to the program, but this changed when large areas of Sydney, which had not been inundated since development, were mapped. Local government concern over issues of legal liability led to decisions which in turn prompted opposition to the policy from residents action groups and property development interests. A perceived drop in property values provided the main motivation for action by residents. This pressure for change, which intensified just before the 1984 state election, saw the policy overturned. The new policy gives local government greater responsibility for floodplain management. State authorities have withdrawn from floodplain mapping, although technical advice will continue to be provided, and there are no longer any uniform floodplain or floodway definitions. Policy implementation is to be guided by a Manual which attempts to define flood hazard in terms of both physical and social criteria.

British Disaster Planning and Management: An Initial Assessment

The unprecedented series of damaging events experienced by Britain since the early 1980s has focussed attention on the countrys arrangements for disaster prevention, planning and management. Until very recently the focus had been on planning for wartime emergencies, with events of the kind responsible for the current anxiety receiving much less attention. This is now changing and, following a wide ranging review, the government has appointed a Civil Emergencies Advisor to assist the national effort. The paper reviews these changes and makes an initial assessment of British disaster planning and management. This is not done at the operational level; rather it proceeds in terms of key issues emerging from the literature and the government review: organisational structure; information flow; national policy or guidelines; and learning from disasters.

The Performance of the Sydney Flood Warning System, August 1986

During August 1986 Sydney experienced its worst flooding for decades. Some 2,500 properties were flooded and transport was severely disrupted in much of the metropolitan area. The flood provided an opportunity to examine the operation of a warning system in a major Australian city. Pre-existing research into flood warnings was expanded to take advantage of the opportunity. The warning system is examined in terms of: its impact on flood losses; consumer satisfaction; and inefficiences or breakdowns within the system. Much of the flooded area was not covered by a formal warning system. For the area that was covered, performance could be improved. Problems were experienced with the data collection and transmission network. Warning dissemination was inadequate, and the majority of those surveyed claimed that they did not receive warnings. The actions of householders reduced the flood damage substantially, but this does not appear to be the result of official warnings. Key recommendations concern improving the reliability of the flood detection network and information management.

Guidelines for floodplain acquisition

Abstract The plight of people living on land subject to frequent and severe flooding constitutes the focus of this study. Development in such areas is generally the result of historical necessity or accident, and protection by engineering works is often not feasible. However valid the original reasons for settlement, the areas are now characterized by low property values, and deteriorating public utilities and housing stock. In keeping with the increasing government interest in issues of public safety, recreation and waterfront access, many Australian local authorities are now acting to alleviate the situation in these severely flood-prone areas. Their action is facilitated by recent policy initiatives at the state and federal levels of government. One approach gaining acceptance as a means of providing permanent solutions to otherwise intractable flood problems is the purchase or acquisition of the property by government on a voluntary basis. This approach appears to have the potential to contribute to other community aims; for example, the provision of waterfront recreation and preservation of natural floodplain storage. This paper presents the case for acquisition by establishing where and how the strategy should be implemented. In doing so it attempts to provide an improved basis for floodplain land use decisions.

Australia and Environmental Management in Antarctica

Australias close connection with the Antarctic region since the early days of European settlement has both physical and intangible components. As we have accumulated knowledge of Antarctica, the relationship has gradually shifted from seeing the environment as threatening if not terrifying and as beyond the ability of humans to endure; to an environment which now needs protection from humanity. Since the signing of the Antarctic Treaty in 1959, Australia has been an advocate of environmental protection for the southern continent. This activity culminated in 1991 with the Madrid Protocol for comprehensive environmental protection for Antarctica. However, much work remains to be done before the ideals of the Madrid Protocol can be implemented, and a number of major issues remain unresolved. Again, Australia appears to have taken the lead by drafting a Conservation Strategy for the Australian Antarctic Territory. In an area with no permanent human inhabitants; effectively no infrastructure; only a few small...