James P. Walsh

Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Sectoral and Institutional Approach

Using a dataset which breaks down FDI flows into primary, secondary and tertiary sector investments and a GMM dynamic approach to address concerns about endogeneity, the paper analyzes various macroeconomic, developmental, and institutional/qualitative determinants of FDI in a sample of emerging market and developed economies. While FDI flows into the primary sector show little dependence on any of these variables, secondary and tertiary sector investments are affected in different ways by countries’ income levels and exchange rate valuation, as well as development indicators such as financial depth and school enrollment, and institutional factors such as judicial independence and labor market flexibility. Finally, we find that the effect of these factors often differs between advanced and emerging economies.

Reconsidering the Role of Food Prices in Inflation

Food prices are generally excluded from measures of inflation most closely watched by policymakers due either to their transitory nature or their higher volatility. However, in lower income countries, food price inflation is not only more volatile but also on average higher than nonfood inflation. Food inflation is also in many cases more persistent than nonfood inflation, and shocks in many countries are propagated strongly into nonfood inflation. Under these conditions, and particularly given high global commodity price inflation in recent years, a policy focus on measures of core inflation that exclude food prices can misspecify inflation, leading to higher inflationary expectations, a downward bias to forecasts of future inflation and lags in policy responses. In constructing measures of core inflation, policymakers should therefore not assume that excluding food price inflation will provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends than headline inflation.

The Fiscal and Welfare Impacts of Reforming Fuel Subsidies in India

Rising fuel subsidies have contributed to fiscal pressures in India. A key policy concern regarding subsidy reform is the adverse welfare impact on households, in particular poor households. This paper evaluates the fiscal and welfare implications of fuel subsidy reform in India. Fuel subsidies are found to be badly targeted, with the richest ten percent of households receiving seven times more in benefits than the poorest ten percent. Although subsidy reform would generate substantial fiscal savings, the associated increases in fuel and other prices would lower household real incomes of all income groups. Better targeting of fuel subsidies would fully protect lower income households while still generating substantial net fiscal savings. Lessons from subsidy reforms in other countries are identified and discussed.

Inflation and Income Inequality; Is Food Inflation Different?

There is an extensive literature noting that high inflation can add to income inequality, and a parallel literature assessing the effect of rising food prices on the poor. This paper attempts to combine these strands by dividing inflation into food and nonfood inflation and assessing whether food inflation affects income inequality differently from nonfood inflation. In an international sample and a sample of Chinese provinces, nonfood inflation exacerbates income inequality while the role of food inflation is more mixed. In a sample of Indian states broken down into urban and rural areas, we find that nonfood inflation adds to income inequality in both areas, while food inflation has a neutral to positive effect on income inequality in rural areas, providing support for the theory that rural wages may respond elastically to food prices.

Financing Infrastructure in India; Macroeconomic Lessons and Emerging Market Case Studies

Driving infrastructure development, notably mobilizing financial resources for infrastructure projects, has been challenging in many countries. This study includes two parts: an empirical analysis of macroeconomic risks associated with infrastructure booms, and a case study of four emerging economies about their practice of funding infrastructure development. The study shows that (i) there is no empirical evidence that rapid infrastructure growth would undermine contemporary macroeconomic performance, implying that room is created to accommodate infrastructure booms without compromising fiscal and external sustainability; (ii) banks may play an important role in financing infrastructure, but caution is needed to avoid directed lending and regulatory forbearance that the authorities may use to promote financing; (iii) capital market development is important to accommodate the usually high financing needs, and encouraging private investors to move into infrastructure would require regulatory and institutional improvements; and (iv) public support, including credit guarantees, may help bolster investors’ confidence, but the authorities should carefully monitor and manage fiscal risks.