R. Gaston Gelos

A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds

This article explores the behavior of emerging market mutual funds using a novel database covering the holdings of individual funds over the period January 1996 to December 2000. The degree of herding among funds is statistically significant, but moderate. Herding is more widespread among open-ended funds than among closed-end funds, but not more prevalent during crises than during tranquil times. We find some evidence that funds tend to follow momentum strategies, selling past losers and buying past winners.

Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies

This paper examines financial market comovements across European transition economies and compares their experience to that of other regions. Correlations in monthly indices of exchange market pressures can partly be explained by direct trade linkages, but not by measures of other fundamentals. Higher-frequency data during three crisis periods reveals the presence of structural breaks in the relationship between exchange-, but not stock markets. While the reaction of markets during the Asian and Czech crises is muted, the pattern of high-frequency spillovers during the Russian crisis looks very similar to that observed in other regions during turbulent times. With greater financial market integration, the financial markets of the more advanced transition economies can be expected to behave more and more like their Asian and Latin American counterparts.

Banking Spreads in Latin America

Intermediation spreads in Latin America are high by international standards. This paper examines the determinants of bank interest margins in that region using bank- and country-level data from 85 countries, including 14 Latin American economies. The results suggest that Latin America has higher interest rates, less efficient banks, and larger reserve requirements than other regions and that these factors have a significant impact on spreads. However, Latin American countries do not differ markedly from their peers in other aspects that are found important in determining the cost of financial intermediation, such as inflation and bank profit taxation. (JEL E43, E44, G21, O54)

What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil?: An Empirical Analysis

This study examines the macro-economic determinants of survey inflation expectations in Brazil since the adoption of inflation targeting in 1999. The results suggest that the inflation-targeting framework has helped anchor expectations, with the dispersion of inflation expectations declining considerably, particularly during periods of high uncertainty. We also find that apart from the inflation target, the stance of fiscal policy, as proxied by the ratio of the consolidated primary surplus to GDP, has been instrumental in shaping expectations. The importance of past inflation in determining expectations appears to be relatively low, and the overall empirical evidence does not suggest the presence of substantial inertia in the inflation process.

International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion - A Survey

Gaining a better understanding of the behavior of international investors is key for informing the debate about the optimal response to capital flows and about reforms to the international financial architecture. In this context, recent research on the behavior of international mutual funds at the micro level has expanded our knowledge about the drivers of portfolio flows and the mechanisms behind the transmission of financial shocks across countries. This paper provides a brief survey of this literature, with a focus on the empirical evidence for emerging markets. Overall, the behavior of international mutual funds is complex and overly simplistic characterizations are misleading. However, there is broad-based evidence for momentum trading among funds. Moreover, funds tend to avoid opaque markets and assets, and this behavior becomes more pronounced during volatile times. Portfolio rebalancing mechanisms are clearly important in explaining contagion patterns, even in the absence of common macroeconomic fundamentals. From a surveillance point of view, this implies that monitoring the exposures of large investors at a micro level is crucial to assess vulnerabilities.

Foreign currency debt in emerging markets: firm-level evidence from Mexico

Using a database of over 500 Mexican companies, we examine the determinants of the share of foreign-currency denominated debt in total debt, finding that it is positively correlated with imports, exports, and the size of the firm.

FIXED CAPITAL ADJUSTMENT: IS LATIN AMERICA DIFFERENT?

We examine capital adjustment patterns using two large and largely novel plant-level data sets from the manufacturing sectors of Colombia and Mexico. The data suggest that irreversibilities play a more important role than in more-advanced economies. However, we do not find support for the presence of increasing returns in the adjustment cost technology, such as arising from fixed costs. Firms go through periods of inaction and rarely sell capital, but they do not invest at discrete times only. An examination of the dynamic patterns of adjustment of factors differing in their flexibility supports this interpretation.

Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?

Is backward-looking behavior in pricing or imperfect credibility of stabilization efforts responsible for the failure of inflation rates to decline to targeted levels during many disinflation programs? This paper assesses the relative importance of these two factors during a number of disinflation attempts in developing and transition economies. Using survey data, we find that expectations of future inflation play a much more important role than past inflation in shaping the inflation process. We also find that an improvement in primary fiscal balances significantly reduces inflation expectations. This suggests that during stabilization episodes, priority should be given to building fiscal credibility by strengthening public finances.

Brazil's Long-Term Growth Performance - Trying to Explain the Puzzle

Purpose - This paper seeks to assess Brazils growth performance from a long-term perspective. Brazils growth performance over the past 25 years has been lackluster, and various hypotheses have been advanced to explain Brazils disappointing growth record. Design/methodology/approach - In contrast with the existing literature, the paper uses cross-country and panel estimation techniques to analyze Brazils growth record, building on the vast empirical literature on growth and its long-term determinants. It examines the extent to which fundamental factors found to be related to growth in the cross-section help to explain Brazils growth performance during 1960-2000. It also explores the dynamics of growth across time by using panel data models to assess the role of various fundamentals that may have influenced Brazils growth performance since 1960. Findings - The empirical evidence presented confirms that macroeconomic stability and several reforms have helped raise per capita growth in Brazil since the mid-1990s. The results also show that some long-standing structural weaknesses continue to weigh negatively on per capita growth. Practical implications - Reducing the high level of government consumption would help lower the overall consumption level in the economy and lower its intertemporal price – the real interest rate, thus helping to foster investment and growth. Originality/value - The paper provides useful information on Brazils growth performance from a long-term perspective.

Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks

This paper considers the role of country-level opacity (the lack of availability of information) in amplifying shocks emanating from financial centers. We provide a simple model where, in the presence of ambiguity (uncertainty about the probability distribution of returns), prices in emerging markets react more strongly to signals from the developed market, the more opaque the emerging market is. The second contribution is empirical evidence for bond and equity markets in line with this prediction. Increasing the availability of information about public policies, improving accounting standards, and enhancing legal frameworks can help reduce the unpleasant side effects of financial globalization.