Jan-Patrick Stellmann

Neuromyelitis optica: Evaluation of 871 attacks and 1,153 treatment courses.

Neuromyelitis optica (NMO) attacks often are severe, are difficult to treat, and leave residual deficits. Here, we analyzed the frequency, sequence, and efficacy of therapies used for NMO attacks.

Novel multiple sclerosis susceptibility loci implicated in epigenetic regulation.

Genome-wide study in Germans identifies four novel multiple sclerosis risk genes and confirms already known gene loci. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility in German cohorts with 4888 cases and 10,395 controls. In addition to associations within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region, 15 non-MHC loci reached genome-wide significance. Four of these loci are novel MS susceptibility loci. They map to the genes L3MBTL3, MAZ, ERG, and SHMT1. The lead variant at SHMT1 was replicated in an independent Sardinian cohort. Products of the genes L3MBTL3, MAZ, and ERG play important roles in immune cell regulation. SHMT1 encodes a serine hydroxymethyltransferase catalyzing the transfer of a carbon unit to the folate cycle. This reaction is required for regulation of methylation homeostasis, which is important for establishment and maintenance of epigenetic signatures. Our GWAS approach in a defined population with limited genetic substructure detected associations not found in larger, more heterogeneous cohorts, thus providing new clues regarding MS pathogenesis.

Immunotherapies in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder: efficacy and predictors of response

Objective To analyse predictors for relapses and number of attacks under different immunotherapies in patients with neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD). Design This is a retrospective cohort study conducted in neurology departments at 21 regional and university hospitals in Germany. Eligible participants were patients with aquaporin-4-antibody-positive or aquaporin-4-antibody-negative NMOSD. Main outcome measures were HRs from Cox proportional hazard regression models adjusted for centre effects, important prognostic factors and repeated treatment episodes. Results 265 treatment episodes with a mean duration of 442 days (total of 321 treatment years) in 144 patients (mean age at first attack: 40.9 years, 82.6% female, 86.1% aquaporin-4-antibody-positive) were analysed. 191 attacks occurred during any of the treatments (annual relapse rate=0.60). The most common treatments were rituximab (n=77, 111 patient-years), azathioprine (n=52, 68 patient-years), interferon-β (n=32, 61 patient-years), mitoxantrone (n=34, 32.1 patient-years) and glatiramer acetate (n=17, 10 patient-years). Azathioprine (HR=0.4, 95% CI 0.3 to 0.7, p=0.001) and rituximab (HR=0.6, 95% CI 0.4 to 1.0, p=0.034) reduced the attack risk compared with interferon-β, whereas mitoxantrone and glatiramer acetate did not. Patients who were aquaporin-4-antibody-positive had a higher risk of attacks (HR=2.5, 95% CI 1.3 to 5.1, p=0.009). Every decade of age was associated with a lower risk for attacks (HR=0.8, 95% CI 0.7 to 1.0, p=0.039). A previous attack under the same treatment tended to be predictive for further attacks (HR=1.5, 95% CI 1.0 to 2.4, p=0.065). Conclusions Age, antibody status and possibly previous attacks predict further attacks in patients treated for NMOSD. Azathioprine and rituximab are superior to interferon-β.

Placebo Cohorts in Phase-3 MS Treatment Trials - Predictors for On-Trial Disease Activity 1990-2010 Based on a Meta-Analysis and Individual Case Data

Background Annualized relapse rates (ARR) in the placebo cohorts of phase-3 randomized controlled trials (RCT) of new treatments for relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) have decreased substantially during the last two decades. The causes of these changes are not clear. We consider a better understanding of this phenomenon essential for valuing the effects of new drugs and by designing new trials. Objectives To identify predictive factors of on-study ARR in early and recent MS trials. Methods ARR, rate of relapse-free patients, trial start dates, baseline demographics, relapse definitions and the use of McDonald criteria were retrieved by literature research of the placebo cohorts from RRMS phase-3 trials. Predictors were estimated by univariate and multivariate regression analyses and random-effects meta-regression. In addition, regression models were calculated by the Sylvia Lawry Centres (SLC), including individual case data from clinical trials performed until 2000. The most reliable meta-analytic results can be gained from pooled individual case data. In lack of this, random-effects meta-analyses are recommended. Results Data from 12 published and one unpublished trial show a decrease of ARR from 1988 to 2012 (adjR2 = 0.807, p<0.0001). Regression models identified McDonald criteria followed by baseline mean age and the pre-study relapse rate as predictors of the ARR. The pooled individual case data (n = 505) confirmed a decrease of ARR over time. The pre-study relapse rate was the best predictor for on-study relapses. Lacking individual case data after implementation of the McDonald criteria excludes a direct comparison concerning McDonald criteria. Conclusion Pre-study relapse rate was the best predictor for on-study relapse rate but failed to explain the decrease of the ARR over time alone. Higher age at baseline and the implementation of McDonald criteria were associated as well with a lowered relapse rate in the random-effects meta-regression. These findings need further clarification based on individual case data.

Heterogeneity of Multiple Sclerosis Lesions in Multislice Myelin Water Imaging

Purpose To assess neuroprotection and remyelination in Multiple Sclerosis (MS), we applied a more robust myelin water imaging (MWI) processing technique, including spatial priors into image reconstruction, which allows for lower SNR, less averages and shorter acquisition times. We sought to evaluate this technique in MS-patients and healthy controls (HC). Materials and Methods Seventeen MS-patients and 14 age-matched HCs received a 3T Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) examination including MWI (8 slices, 12 minutes acquisition time), T2w and T1mprage pre and post gadolinium (GD) administration. Black holes (BH), contrast enhancing lesions (CEL) and T2 lesions were marked and registered to MWI. Additionally, regions of interest (ROI) were defined in the frontal, parietal and occipital normal appearing white matter (NAWM)/white matter (WM), the corticospinal tract (CST), the splenium (SCC) and genu (GCC) of the corpus callosum in patients and HCs. Mean values of myelin water fraction (MWF) were determined for each ROI. Results Significant differences (p≤0.05) of the MWF were found in all three different MS-lesion types (BH, CEL, T2 lesions), compared to the WM of HCs. The mean MWF values among the different lesion types were significantly differing from each other. Comparing MS-patients vs. HCs, we found a significant (p≤0.05) difference of the MWF in all measured ROIs except of GCC and SCC. The mean reduction of MWF in the NAWM of MS-patients compared to HCs was 37%. No age, sex, disability score and disease duration dependency was found for the NAWM MWF. Conclusion MWF measures were in line with previous studies and lesions were clearly visible in MWI. MWI allows for quantitative assessment of NAWM and lesions in MS, which could be used as an additional sensitive imaging endpoint for larger MS studies. Measurements of the MWF also differ between patients and healthy controls.

Influence of female sex and fertile age on neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders

Background: Gender and age at onset are important epidemiological factors influencing prevalence, clinical presentation, and treatment response in autoimmune diseases. Objective: To evaluate the impact of female sex and fertile age on aquaporin-4-antibody (AQP4-ab) status, attack localization, and response to attack treatment in patients with neuromyelitis optica (NMO) and its spectrum disorders (neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD)). Methods: Female-to-male ratios, diagnosis at last visit (NMO vs NMOSD), attack localization, attack treatment, and outcome were compared according to sex and age at disease or attack onset. Results: A total of 186 NMO/SD patients (82% female) were included. In AQP4-ab-positive patients, female predominance was most pronounced during fertile age (female-to-male ratio 23:1). Female patients were more likely to be positive for AQP4-abs (92% vs 55%; p < 0.001). Interval between onset and diagnosis of NMO/SD was longer in women than in men (mean 54 vs 27 months; p = 0.023). In women, attacks occurring ⩽40 years of age were more likely to show complete remission (p = 0.003) and better response to high-dose intravenous steroids (p = 0.005) compared to woman at >40 years. Conclusion: Our data suggest an influence of sex and age on susceptibility to AQP4-ab-positive NMO/SD. Genetic and hormonal factors might contribute to pathophysiology of NMO/SD.

Long-term treatment risks in multiple sclerosis: risk knowledge and risk perception in a large cohort of mitoxantrone-treated patients

Background: Balancing treatment benefits and risks is part of a shared decision-making process before initiating any treatment in multiple sclerosis (MS). Patients understand, appreciate and profit from evidence-based patient information (EBPI). While these processes are well known, long-term risk awareness and risk processing of patients has not been studied. Mitoxantrone treatment in MS is associated with long-term major potential harms – leukaemia (LK) and cardiotoxicity (CT). The risk knowledge and perception among patients currently or previously treated with mitoxantrone is unknown. Objectives: The objective of this article is to conduct a retrospective cohort study in greater Hamburg, Germany, to estimate risk awareness and perception in MS patients treated with mitoxantrone. Methods: MS patients with at least one dose of mitoxantrone between 1991 and 2010 from six major MS centres in greater Hamburg received a questionnaire assessing risk awareness and perception as well as a written EBPI about mitoxantrone-associated LK and CT. Results: Fifty-one per cent in the cohort of n = 575 patients returned the questionnaire. Forty per cent correctly estimated the risk of LK (CT 16%); 56% underestimated the risk (CT 82%). Reading the information increased the accuracy of LK risk estimation, and patients did not report an increase of worries. The EBPI was appreciated and recommended by 85%. Conclusion: Risk awareness of mitoxantrone-treated patients is insufficient, but can be increased by EBPI without increasing worries. Continued patient information during and after treatment should be implemented in management algorithms.

Validating Predictors of Disease Progression in a Large Cohort of Primary-Progressive Multiple Sclerosis Based on a Systematic Literature Review

Background New agents with neuroprotective or neuroregenerative potential might be explored in primary-progressive Multiple Sclerosis (PPMS) - the MS disease course with leading neurodegenerative pathology. Identification of patients with a high short-term risk for progression may minimize study duration and sample size. Cohort studies reported several variables as predictors of EDSS disability progression but findings were partially contradictory. Objective To analyse the impact of published predictors on EDSS disease progression in a large cohort of PPMS patients. Methods A systematic literature research was performed to identify predictors for disease progression in PPMS. Individual case data from the Sylvia Lawry Centre (SLC) and the Hamburg MS patient database (HAPIMS) was pooled for a retrospective validation of these predictors on the annualized EDSS change. Results The systematic literature analysis revealed heterogeneous data from 3 prospective and 5 retrospective natural history cohort studies. Age at onset, gender, type of first symptoms and early EDSS changes were available for validation. Our pooled cohort of 597 PPMS patients (54% female) had a mean follow-up of 4.4 years and mean change of EDSS of 0.35 per year based on 2503 EDSS assessments. There was no significant association between the investigated variables and the EDSS-change. Conclusion None of the analysed variables were predictive for the disease progression measured by the annualized EDSS change. Whether PPMS is still unpredictable or our results may be due to limitations of cohort assessments or selection of predictors cannot be answered. Large systematic prospective studies with new endpoints are needed.

Ecological Validity of Walking Capacity Tests in Multiple Sclerosis

Background Ecological validity implicates in how far clinical assessments refer to real life. Short clinical gait tests up to ten meters and 2- or 6-Minutes Walking Tests (2MWT/6MWT) are used as performance-based outcomes in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) studies and considered as moderately associated with real life mobility. Objective To investigate the ecological validity of 10 Meter Walking Test (10mWT), 2MWT and 6MWT. Methods Persons with MS performed 10mWT, 6MWT including 2MWT and 7 recorded days by accelerometry. Ecological validity was assumed if walking tests represented a typical walking sequence in real-life and correlations with accelerometry parameters were strong. Results In this cohort (n=28, medians: age=45, EDSS=3.2, disease duration=9 years), uninterrupted walking of 2 or 6 minutes occurred not frequent in real life (2.61 and 0.35 sequences/day). 10mWT correlated only with slow walking speed quantiles in real life. 2MWT and 6MWT correlated moderately with most real life walking parameters. Conclusion Clinical gait tests over a few meters have a poor ecological validity while validity is moderate for 2MWT and 6MWT. Mobile accelerometry offers the opportunity to control and improve the ecological validity of MS mobility outcomes.

Regression to the Mean and Predictors of MRI Disease Activity in RRMS Placebo Cohorts - Is There a Place for Baseline-to-Treatment Studies in MS?

Background Gadolinium-enhancing (GD+) lesions and T2 lesions are MRI outcomes for phase-2 treatment trials in relapsing-remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS). Little is known about predictors of lesion development and regression-to-the-mean, which is an important aspect in early baseline-to-treatment trials. Objectives To quantify regression-to-the-mean and identify predictors of MRI lesion development in placebo cohorts. Methods 21 Phase-2 and Phase-3 trials were identified by a systematic literature research. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed to estimate development of T2 and GD+ after 6 months (phase-2) or 2 years (phase-3). Predictors of lesion development were evaluated with mixed-effect meta-regression. Results The mean number of GD+-lesions per scan was similar after 6 months (1.19, 95%CI: 0.87-1.51) and 2 years (1.19, 95%CI: 1.00-1.39). 39% of the patients were without new T2-lesion after 6 month and 19% after 2 years (95%CI: 12-25%). Mean number of baseline GD+-lesions was the best predictor for new lesions after 6 months. Conclusion Baseline GD-enhancing lesions predict evolution of Gd- and T2 lesions after 6 months and might be used to control for regression to the mean effects. Overall, proof-of-concept studies with a baseline to treatment design have to face a regression to 1.2 GD+lesions per scan within 6 months.