Jan Rotmans

The Management of the Co-Evolution of Technical, Environmental and Social Systems

Environmental problems of pollution have been countered quite successfully through the use of control technology and cleaner processes at the production side. At the consumer side little has changed. People still engage in the individual use of motorised transport and energy-intensive life styles. The common explanation for this is that people want automobility, cheap energy and cheap food. Such an explanation assumes that people preferences are fixed and that the system is geared toward satisfying these. It fails to see that people want many things; that consumer choices are restricted by supply choices, and that user benefits may conflict with societal benefits. Supply and demand not only interact but also interlock. Their interaction gives rise to particular trajectories, which are sustained by industrial interests vested in it, assumptions about user needs and high costs of making a system change, both for the actors concerned and society of large. The above helps to understand why most change is incremental, aimed at exploitation rather than exploration (March 1991).

The image greenhouse model as a mathematical system

Abstract In this paper we present a mathematical formulation of a well-known model of the enhanced greenhouse effect: the Dutch IMAGE model. The formulation is in the form of a dynamical system with forcing term consisting primarily of human interference in the form of emissions of greenhouse gases and land use changes. We demonstrate that a mathematical equilibrium/stability analysis of this relatively large-scale, nonlinear system is possible and yields useful insights into the underlying environmental phenomena. The mathematical formulation and technique used can be viewed as quite generic and applicable to a wide range of environmental models. In addition, our formulation should enable mathematicians and other scientists to begin a deeper structural analysis of the IMAGE (90) model, its assumptions, and conclusions.

Strengthening the Montreal protocol: does it cool down the greenhouse?

Strengthening of the Montreal Protocol is recently being negotiated in London in 1990 in order to achieve further reductions of the regulated CFCs and to include possibly more substances. In this article the implications of different policies with respect to control of ozone depleting substances for climate change are analysed, including the proposed substitution by HCFCs and HFCs, carbon tetrachloride and methylchloroform. A special halocarbon module was developed within the framework of RIVMs Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE). IMAGE is a parameterized science based policy model and has been developed to give policy agencies a concise overview of the quantitative aspects of the greenhouse problem, to evaluate various policy options concerning climate change and to serve as a means of communication. It is concluded, from simulations with the halocarbon module, that it is of primary importance to achieve a further reduction of the regulated CFCs compared to the Montreal Protocol with compliance by as many countries as possible. From the perspective of the greenhouse effect the inclusion of longer lived halocarbons, such as carbon tetrachloride and HCFC-22 in the protocol comes second. The application of methylchloroform, halons and HCFCs and HFCs with lower global warming potentials (GWPs) than HCFC-22 contributes only marginally to the greenhouse effect in comparison with the much more important greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, ozone and nitrous oxide. Especially if further growth of the total production of HCFCs after complete replacement of the present CFCs can be avoided by using these alternatives with a lower GWP, these substances could therefore be tolerated in a transition period, from the perspective of global warming.

Transition Management: a promising policy perspective

This chapter reflects the scientific examination of the concept of transition from an integrated perspective. It develops a model for working towards a transition in an iterative, adaptive manner, based on a philosophy of learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning. The model is applied to the case of a low emission energy supply in the Netherlands. Transition management offers a long term vision and framework for decision-making that aims to achieve greater coherence within public policies and between public policy and private action. Through transition management society’s problem solving capabilities are mobilised and translated into a transition programme that is legitimised through the political process. It is a promising policy perspective that has been adopted by Dutch environmental authorities to deal with problems that require structural change.

Perspectives on Global Change: Uncertainty and risk: dystopian futures

This chapter explores dystopian futures. After a summary of the uncertainties and risks discussed for each of the subsystems, integrated experiments are presented in which world view and management style throughout the world system are at odds. We also investigate the effectiveness of various response options and of the timing of certain policy measures . Introduction In the previous chapter we outlined possible futures which are based on coherent sets of assumptions about how the world system functions and how it is managed. These are called utopias and constitute the diagonal elements in the matrix presented in Figure 10.7. In a way, they are idealised and therefore implausible images of the future. In this chapter we first present some simulation experiments in which dystopian trends are explored with the integrated TARGETS 1.0 model. This is a prelude to the next section in which we analyse in more detail images of the future where world view and management style are at odds. These are referred to as integrated dystopias (see Chapter 11) and they are actually more plausible because they contain real-world tensions between diverging world views and management styles. Two major chains which cause feedback loops are presented as a framework discussing some interesting dystopian futures and to give an assessment of associated risks. Finally, we explore the adequacy of response actions in terms of intensity and timing, and the consequences of allocating insufficient investments to the food, water and energy sectors.

Perspectives on Global Change: Index

1. Global change and sustainable development Rotmans, van Asselt, de Vries 2. Concepts Rotmans, van Asselt, de Vries 3. The TARGETS model Rotmans et al. 4. The population and health submodel Niessen and Hilderink 5. The energy submodel: TIME de Vries and Janssen 6. The water submodel: AQUA Hoekstra 7. The land and food submodel: TERRA Strengers, den Elzen and Koster 8. The biogeochemical submodel: CYCLES den Elzen et al. 9. Indicators for sustainable development Rotmans 10. Uncertainties in perspective van Asselt and Rotmans 11. Towards an integrated assessment of global change Rotmans et al. 12. Population and health in perspective Hilderink and van Asselt 13. Energy systems in transition de Vries, Beusen and Janssen 14. Water in crisis Hoekstra et al. 15. Food for the future Strengers et al. 16. Human disturbance of the global biogeochemical cycles den Elzen 17. The larger picture: Utopian futures de Vries 18. Uncertainty and risk: Dystopian futures de Vries 19. Global change: fresh insights, no simple answers de Vries et al. References Index.