Bert de Vries

Water in crisis

What do you do to start reading water in crisis? Searching the book that you love to read first or find an interesting book that will make you want to read? Everybody has difference with their reason of reading a book. Actuary, reading habit must be from earlier. Many people may be love to read, but not a book. Its not fault. Someone will be bored to open the thick book with small words to read. In more, this is the real condition. So do happen probably with this water in crisis.

Perspectives on global change : the TARGETS approach

1. Global change and sustainable development Rotmans, van Asselt, de Vries 2. Concepts Rotmans, van Asselt, de Vries 3. The TARGETS model Rotmans et al. 4. The population and health submodel Niessen and Hilderink 5. The energy submodel: TIME de Vries and Janssen 6. The water submodel: AQUA Hoekstra 7. The land and food submodel: TERRA Strengers, den Elzen and Koster 8. The biogeochemical submodel: CYCLES den Elzen et al. 9. Indicators for sustainable development Rotmans 10. Uncertainties in perspective van Asselt and Rotmans 11. Towards an integrated assessment of global change Rotmans et al. 12. Population and health in perspective Hilderink and van Asselt 13. Energy systems in transition de Vries, Beusen and Janssen 14. Water in crisis Hoekstra et al. 15. Food for the future Strengers et al. 16. Human disturbance of the global biogeochemical cycles den Elzen 17. The larger picture: Utopian futures de Vries 18. Uncertainty and risk: Dystopian futures de Vries 19. Global change: fresh insights, no simple answers de Vries et al. References Index.

The battle of perspectives: a multi-agent model with adaptive responses to climate change

Abstract To evaluate possible futures with regard to economy, energy and climate, a multi-agent modelling approach is used. Agents hold different perspectives on how the world functions (worldview) and how it should be managed (management style) and this is implemented in a simple dynamic model of the economy-energy-climate system. Each perspective is supported by a proportion of the agents, but this proportion changes in response to observations about the real world. In this way the totality of agents learn from their observations. It is concluded that this approach is a good illustration of how adaptive behavior can be included in global change modelling. Some exploratory experiments are done to address the consequences of surprises.

Indicators for sustainable development

The most widely used social, economic and environmental indicators are scale, sector or subject-specific. Indicators for sustainable development, however, need to address the linkages between different aspects of global change and this requires a systemic approach. One way of systematically structuring the interlinkages between indicators is by using integrated assessment models. In this chapter we discuss indicators from a modellers point of view, including their use for communicating model results. A hierarchical framework is introduced for models in general and TARGETS in particular . Introduction Indicators are pieces of information designed to communicate complex messages in a simplified, (quasi-)quantitative manner so that progress in the field of decision-making can be measured. Social and economic indicators have been used for decades at both the national and international level. More recently, environmental indicators have been developed, which are not yet as widely adopted as socio-economic indicators. The most widely used social, economic and environmental indicators are scale, sector or subject-specific. Indicators for sustainable development, however, need to address the interlinkages between the social, economic and environmental aspects of sustainable development. Because there are so many different linkages at different levels, this requires a systemic approach. One way of systematically structuring the interlinkages between indicators is by using models, in particular integrated assessment models. Chapter 40 of Agenda 21 (UNCED, 1992) calls for the development of indicators for sustainable development, at multiple levels. Indicators for sustainable development are needed in order to provide decision-makers with information on sustainable development that is simpler and more readily understood than raw or even analysed data (Billharz and Molda, 1995).

Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century. Exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

Abstract In this paper, we have used the simulation model IMAGE/TIMER to develop a set of energy and emission scenarios for China between 1995 and 2100, based on the global baseline scenarios published by IPCC. The purpose of the study was to explore possible baseline developments and available options to mitigate emissions. The two main baseline scenarios of the study differ, among others, in the openness of the Chinese economy and in economic growth, but both indicate a rapid growth in carbon emissions (2.0% and 2.6% per year in the 2000–2050 period). The baseline scenario analysis also shows that an orientation on environmental sustainability can not only reduce other environmental pressures but also lower carbon emissions. In the mitigation analysis, a large number of options has been evaluated in terms of impacts on investments, user costs, fuel imports costs and emissions. It is found that a large potential exists to mitigate carbon emissions in China, among others in the form of energy efficiency improvement (with large co-benefits) and measures in the electricity sector. Combining all options considered, it appears to be possible to reduce emissions compared to the baseline scenarios by 50%.

Towards an equitable global climate change regime: compatibility with Article 2 of the Climate Change Convention and the link with sustainable development

In this paper we argue that the discussion on how to get to an equitable global climate change regime requires a long-term context. Some key dimensions of this discussion are responsibility, capability and development needs. Each of these, separately or in combination, has been used in designing schemes for differentiation of commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Many implementation problems of these proposals are often side-stepped. In particular, some proposals may be incompatible with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), i.e. they are unlikely to keep the option open of long-term stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at relatively low levels. We present some evidence that shifting the emphasis from emission reduction to sustainable development needs can contribute significantly to relieving the threat of human-induced climate change.

Greenhouse gas emissions in an equity-, environment- and service-oriented world: An IMAGE-based scenario for the 21st century

Abstract This article describes a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario for a world that chooses collectively and effectively to pursue service-oriented economic prosperity while taking into account equity and environmental concerns, but without policies directed at mitigating climate change. After peaking around 2050 at 2.2 times the 1990 level of primary energy use, a number of factors lead to a primary energy use rate at the end of the next century that is only 40% higher than the 1990 rate. Among these factors are a stabilizing (and after 2050, declining) population, convergence in economic productivity, dematerialization and technology transfer, and high-tech innovations in energy use and supply. Land use-related emissions show a similar trend. Total CO 2 emissions peak at 12.8 CtC/yr around 2040, after which they start falling off. Other GHG emissions show a similar trend. The resulting CO 2 -equivalent concentration continues to rise to about 600 ppmv in 2100. Present understanding of climate change impacts suggest that even in this world of high-tech innovations in resource use in combination with effective global governance and concern about equity and environment issues, climate policy is needed if mankind is to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system.

Geographical Distributions of Temperature Change for Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas and Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

Time-dependent geographical distributions of surface–air temperature change relative to year 2000 are constructed for four scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, and are compared to the IS92a scenario. The four new scenarios have been developed by four different modeling teams. The four scenarios are noninterventionist, in that they do not include abatement of GHG emissions for the purpose of climate-change mitigation. The time evolution of the changes in global-mean surface-air temperature and sea level are calculated for each scenario by our energy-balance-climate/upwelling-diffusion-ocean model. The temperature changes individually and jointly for the radiative forcing by the GHGs and by the sulfate aerosol, which is formed in the atmosphere from the emitted SO2. These GHG- and SO2-induced global-mean temperature changes are used to scale in time the geographical distributions of surface–air temperature simulated by our University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign (UIUC) atmospheric-general-circulation/mixed-layer-ocean model, respectively for a doubling of the CO2 amount and for a 10-fold increase in present-day SO2 emission—the latter from the entire earth as well as individually from Europe, Siberia, North Africa, Asia, North America, and the Southern Hemisphere—each geographical distribution having been normalized by its respective global-mean surface–air temperature change. It is found that: (1) the global-mean surface–air temperature changes are not distinguishable among the four scenarios presented here until near the middle of the 21st century; (2) in 2100, the warming and sea level rise range from 1.2°C and 27 cm for the B1 scenario, with a temperature sensitivity of ΔT2x = 1.5°C to 4.9°C and 72 cm for the A2 scenario, with ΔT2x = 4.5°C, with 62 and 69% of these 3.7°C and 45 cm ranges respectively resulting from the uncertainty in ΔT2x, and 38 and 31% from the scenario uncertainty; (3) the scenario uncertainty in future noninterventionist CO2 emissions translates into a large uncertainty about the geographical distribution of the warming, particularly in the Arctic; (4) the reduction in regional SO2 emissions of the four scenarios compared to IS92a results in a significant warming of Europe, Asia, and North America, as well as either a reduction or reversal of the cooling elsewhere, thereby showing that mitigation of the acid-rain problem exacerbates the greenhouse-warming problem; and (5) sulfate aerosol reduces the GHG-induced warming in the Arctic for IS92a, but increases the Arctic warming for the four scenarios.

Long-term reductions in costs of controlling regional air pollution in Europe due to climate policy

Abstract This paper examines to what extent climate change policies will alter the effectiveness of agreed-upon or future policies to reduce regional air pollution in Europe and vice versa. And when is it cost-effective to combat regional air pollution with clean technology instead of add-on technology? For this exercise, several extensions were made to the energy model TIMER, to introduce add-on abatement technologies, specified in terms of costs and reduction potentials, in order to be able to calculate cost-effective emission reduction strategies for different scenarios and regions. The results show that add-on technologies to reduce regional air pollution remain necessary throughout the century. The costs to reach the NO x emission reduction targets in Europe are about three times as high as for SO 2 . Mitigation costs averaged over the century by add-on technologies can be reduced by climate measures by 50–70% for SO 2 and around 50% for NO x . The costs of SO 2 and NO x mitigation by add-on technology in a world without climate policy are comparable or in some periods even higher than the costs of an integrated mitigation of SO 2 , NO x and CO 2 emissions if a reduction of specific costs by learning is, in contrast with energy technologies, not assumed for abatement technologies. So, the costs of SO 2 and NO x add-on measures avoided by climate policies can outweigh the costs of these climate measures. The total annual costs are in the order of 1 or 2% of the present GDP, depending on the scenario.

Long-term, consistent scenarios of emissions, deposition, and climate change in Europe

The aim of this study was to develop consistent scenarios of emissions, climate change and regional air pollution to enable an integrated analysis of the linkage between climate change and regional air pollution in Europe. An integrated modeling framework was developed for this purpose. The framework integrates state-of-the-art models and concepts from the area of climate change and regional air pollution and was supplemented by new modules (e.g. modeling long-term NH3 emissions in Europe, modeling dispersion and transformation of air pollutants under climate change). Consistent climate and air pollution policies were derived, both driven by the desire to achieve certain environmental goals. According to an analysis of scenarios with various combinations of climate and regional air pollution policies the quantitatively most relevant interactions are the effect of climate change policies on the energy mix and the resulting air pollution emissions. In the long-term the global SO2 emissions are expected to decrease (again), accordingly their effect on climate will be minor. Tentatively it can be concluded that for regional air pollution the development of the air pollutant emissions is more important than the effect of climate change on the dispersion and chemical transformation of air pollutants.