Jan Staes

Evaluation of the accuracy of land-use based ecosystem service assessments for different thematic resolutions.

The demand for pragmatic tools for mapping ecosystem services (ES) has led to the widespread application of land-use based proxy methods, mostly using coarse thematic resolution classification systems. Although various studies have demonstrated the limited reliability of land use as an indicator of service delivery, this does not prevent the method from being frequently applied on different institutional levels. It has recently been argued that a more detailed land use classification system may increase the accuracy of this approach. This research statistically compares maps of predicted ES delivery based on land use scoring for three different thematic resolutions (number of classes) with maps of ES delivery produced by biophysical models. Our results demonstrate that using a more detailed land use classification system does not significantly increase the accuracy of land-use based ES assessments for the majority of the considered ES. Correlations between land-use based assessments and biophysical model outcomes are relatively strong for provisioning services, independent of the classification system. However, large discrepancies occur frequently between the score and the model-based estimate. We conclude that land use, as a simple indicator, is not effective enough to be used in environmental management as it cannot capture differences in abiotic conditions and ecological processes that explain differences in service delivery. Using land use as a simple indicator will therefore result in inappropriate management decisions, even if a highly detailed land use classification system is used.

A GIS plug-in for Bayesian belief networks

The complexity and spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem processes driving ecosystem service delivery require spatially explicit models that take into account the different parameters affecting those processes. Current attempts to model ecosystem service delivery on a broad, regional scale often depend on indicator-based approaches that are generally not able to fully capture the complexity of ecosystem processes. Moreover, they do not allow quantification of uncertainty on their predictions. In this paper, we discuss a QGIS plug-in which promotes the use of Bayesian belief networks for regional modelling and mapping of ecosystem service delivery and associated uncertainties. Different types of specific Bayesian belief network output maps, delivered by the plug-in, are discussed and their decision support capacities are evaluated. This plug-in, used in combination with firmly developed Bayesian belief networks, has the potential to add value to current spatial ecosystem service accounting methods. The plug-in can also be used in other research domains dealing with spatial data and uncertainty. Spatial heterogeneity of ES delivery requires spatially explicit accounting methods.Limited availability of primary data promotes the use of knowledge-based BBN models.The proposed GIS BBN plug-in offers a standardized approach to model ES delivery.Diverse probabilistic output maps can be produced to support decision making.The preferred type of output map depends mainly on end-user requirements.

Soybean Trade: Balancing Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts of an Intercontinental Market.

The trade in soybean, an important animal feed product, exemplifies the environmental and socio-economic impact of global markets and global agricultural policy. This paper analyses the impact of increasing production of soybean in the exporting countries (deforestation and grassland conversion) as well as in importing regions (decrease in permanent grassland by substitution of grass as feed). Ecosystem services monetary values were used to calculate the environmental and socio-economic impact of observed land use changes. This is balanced against the economic value of the global soybean trade. The results prove that consumption choices in one region have real effects on the supply of ecosystem services at a large spatial scale. Conclusively, solutions to make this global market more sustainable are discussed.

Mapping wetland loss and restoration potential in Flanders (Belgium): an ecosystem service perspective

With the case of Flanders (northern part of Belgium) we present an integrated approach to calculate accurate losses of wetlands, potentials for restoration, and their ecosystem services supplies and illustrate how these insights can be used to evaluate and support policy making. Flanders lost about 75% of its wetland habitats in the past 50–60 years, with currently only 68,000 ha remaining, often in a more or less degraded state. For five different wetland categories (excluding open waters) we calculated that restoration of lost wetland is still possible for an additional total area of about 147,000 ha, assuming that, with time and appropriate measures and techniques, the necessary biophysical and ecological conditions can more or less be restored or created. Wetland restoration opportunities were mapped according to an open and forested landscape scenario. Despite the fact that for 49,000 ha wetland restoration is justifiable by the actual presence of an appropriate spatial planning and/or protection status, the official Flemish nature policy only foresees 7,400 to 10,600 ha of additional wetland (open waters excluded) by 2050. The benefits of a more ambitious wetland restoration action program are underpinned by an explorative and quantified analysis of ecosystem service supply for each of the two scenarios, showing that the strongly increased supply of several important regulating and cultural ecosystem services might outweigh the decrease of food production, especially if extensive farming on temporary wet soils remains possible. Finally, we discuss the challenges of wetland restoration policies for biodiversity conservation and climate change.

The ecosystem services valuation tool and its future developments

Abstract Although methodologies for classification, quantification, and valuation of ecosystem services are improving drastically, applications of the ecosystem services concept in day-to-day decision-making processes remain limited, especially at the planning level. Nevertheless, spatial planning decisions would benefit from systematic considerations of their effects on ecosystem services. Assessing the impacts of policy on a wide range of ecosystem services contributes to more cost-effective policy implementation, establishing win-win situations across different environmental domains. The “nature value explorer” (natuurwaardeverkenner in Dutch) is a web application developed to explore the quantity and value of ecosystem services in Flanders, Belgium, as part of environmental impact assessments. The tool estimates the impact of land-use and land-cover change on regulating and cultural ecosystem services. The web application is successful in drawing the interest of policy makers and is used in several cases to support decisions in infrastructural projects as well as nature restoration projects.

Chapter 20 – EBI—An Index for Delivery of Ecosystem Service Bundles∗

The Ecosystem service Bundle Index (EBI) was developed in response to the urgent need for tools that allow rapid and transparent, yet scientific underpinned assessment of ecosystem services. The index is based on a Bayesian network environment in which data on the biophysical conditions and land use properties that drive service delivery are combined to determine the level of service provision. The index points out service optimization opportunities as discrepancies between actual land use and the ecosystem’s biophysical potential. The model can be used for scenario building and offers opportunities to spatially distribute services in a most beneficial way. The EBI was developed as a prototype and tested in a pilot study area using three interacting ecosystem services: carbon sequestration, agricultural production and wood production.

Integrated Water Management

The natural water system provides direct or indirectly numerous goods and services. For a long time these goods and services have been used to support society in various and important ways. We can distinguish visible and fast renewable resources as fish, crops, timber, and drinking water that distinctively can be linked to the water system. The water system also supports society through direct or indirect ecological services. The strong interdependence from the water system initially forced a certain harmony between the water system and its users. A combination of growing needs and a technological ability has resulted in an increased control and manipulation of the water system. These developments have also led to a serious degeneration of the system’s carrying capacity. The emergence of the first major environmental problems has led to the development of a fragmented water management approach. Initially focused on finding technological “end of pipe” solutions to maintain anthropogenic user functions. Over the last few decades, this fragmented and compartmental approach has shown little adequacy and led to a growing awareness that an integrated and holistic approach is necessary. The term “integrated” has been given many definitions and is still subject to various technical interpretations. Although the integrated water management concepts are intended to be holistic, it has been found that many practical attempts toward a truly integrated approach still focus heavily on controlling the water system to provide specific goods and services at the right time and place (Holling and Meffe 1996; Briggs 2003). Modeling efforts seldom consist of a truly holistic approach, and rather focus on aspects that are predictable, quantifiable and controllable (e.g., hydrology, water quality, etc) leaving out those aspects that are not. Many ecosystem services will never be eligible for command and control because they are involved with a complex web of processes that operate on various scales in time and space (Jakeman and Letcher 2003). An aversion of policy makers toward the unknown, uncertain and uncontrollable makes these services subordinate to those services that are controllable. This is reflected by the aversion of policy-makers to tools and models that try to deal with this complexity (Gustavson, Lonergan et al., 1999; Welp 2001; Quevauviller, Balabanis et al., 2005). Nevertheless, there is enough circumstantial evidence that the decline of vigor and resilience of our natural environment can be ascribed to the rigid management of rivers and its interwoven ecosystems. In this article, we look at concepts of J. STAES, H. BACKX AND P. MEIRE INTEGRATED WATER MANAGEMENT 265 catchment-level ecosystem functioning that should be considered in an integrated water management approach. Finally a conceptual framework for the development of river subbasin management plans is suggested.

Modelling in support of an interdisciplinary approach to ecosystem restitution

Modelling in support of an interdisciplinary approach to ecosystem restitution This paper reports on a study being undertaken to analyze the potential effects of rewetting when undertaken for the restitution of the catchment ecosystem of the Grote Nete catchment. In bringing together the expertise of both ecological and hydrological modelers, this study aims at ensuring that the science being performed is immediately relevant from both the environmental management and the socio-political perspectives. Like many European catchments, Grote Nete has been experiencing an increase in extreme hydrological events. In addition, there has been a decline in the ecological value of the catchment ecosystem. The problem is considered to be a conflict of interests arising between urban/agricultural and nature conservation needs. Rewetting has been considered as a possible intervention to reverse these trends. However, a shortcoming with rewetting is that the hydrological consequences remain largely unknown. A numerical model has been developed to study these potential effects. A land use model, SPAN was developed and coupled to a physically-based, fully distributed model (MIKE SHE) to complete an ecohydrological model. The paper describes the development of the model. Wykorzystanie modelowania wielodyscyplinarnym podejściu do resytytucji ekosystemów Artykuł przedstawia badania przedsięwzięte w celu analizy wpływu zwiększenia wilgotności na potencjalne efekty odtworzenia ekosystemu zlewniowego rzeki Grote Nete. Gromadząc razem w jednym miejscu wiedzę ekspercką oraz doświadczenia twórców i użytkowników, zarówno modeli ekologicznych, jak i hydrologicznych, celem niniejszego artykułu jest ukazanie, iż zintegrowane badania naukowe są niezwykle istotne z punktu widzenia gospodarowania środowiskiem, jak i perspektywy społeczno-politycznej. Taka jak wiele innych europejskich zlewni, rzeka Grote Nete doświadcza w ostatnim okresie wzrastającej liczby ekstremalnych zjawisk hydrologicznych. Dodatkowo, wartość ekologiczna ekosystemu tej zlewni również systematycznie maleje. Jest to przyczyną pojawiania się problemów związanych z narastającym konfliktem interesów pomiędzy potrzebami rolniczo-urbanizacyjnymi a potrzebami ochrony przyrody. Zwiększenie wilgotności rozważane jest jako jedno z możliwych działań, które może przyczynić się do zatrzymania czy wręcz odwrócenia procesu degradacji ekosystemu zlewni. Jednakże pewnym ograniczeniem związanym ze zwiększeniem wilgotności jest to, iż jego konsekwencje hydrologiczne pozostają w dużym stopniu niewiadome. Model numeryczny został opracowany w celu poznania i oceny potencjalnych efektów procesu zwiększenia wilgotności w zlewni. Stworzony model SPAN, opisujący sposoby użytkowania ziemi na obszarze zlewni, został połączony z modelem fizycznym o parametrach rozłożonych (MIKE SHE) w kompletny model ekohydrologiczny. Niniejszy artykuł prezentuje proces opracowywania tego kompleksowego modelu wraz z wynikami jego kalibracji i weryfikacji dla zlewni Grote Nete.