Jan Viebahn

A Southern Ocean mode of multidecadal variability

A 250 year simulation of a strongly eddying global version of the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) model reveals a new mode of intrinsic multidecadal variability, the Southern Ocean Mode (SOM), with a period of 40-50 year. The peak-to-peak difference in the global ocean heat content within a multidecadal cycle is up to 60 ZJ. This change results from surface heat flux variations in the South Atlantic and propagation of temperature anomalies along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and into the Weddell gyre around 30°E. The temperature anomalies propagate as deep as 5000 m along the isopycnals between 50°S and 30°S and induce multidecadal changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. A positive feedback loop between the generation of eddies through baroclinic instability and the dynamics of the mean circulation is essential for the existence of the SOM. The dominant physics appears similar to that responsible for variability found in a three-layer quasi-geostrophic eddy-resolving model. This combined with the fact that the SOM is not found in a noneddying version of the same global POP model further suggests that eddy processes are crucial for its existence and/or excitation.

Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes

Over the last decade, our understanding of climate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks complicate the interpretation of geological records as feedback strengths vary over time. In the geological past, the forcing timescales were different than at present, suggesting that the response may have behaved differently. Do these insights constrain the climate sensitivity relevant for the present day? In this paper, we review the progress made in theoretical understanding of climate sensitivity and on the estimation of climate sensitivity from proxy records. Particular focus lies on the background state dependence of feedback processes and on the impact of tipping points on the climate system. We suggest how to further use palaeo data to advance our understanding of the currently ongoing climate change.

Deep ocean early warning signals of an Atlantic MOC collapse

A future collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) has been identified as one of the most dangerous tipping points in the climate system. It is therefore crucial to develop early warning indicators for such a potential collapse based on relatively short time series. So far, attempts to use indicators based on critical slowdown have been marginally successful. Based on complex climate network reconstruction, we here present a promising new indicator for the MOC collapse that efficiently monitors spatial changes in deep ocean circulation. Through our analysis of the performance of this indicator, we formulate optimal locations of measurement of the MOC to provide early warning signals of a collapse. Our results imply that an increase in spatial resolution of the Atlantic MOC observations (i.e., at more sections) can improve early detection, because the spatial coherence in the deep ocean arising near the transition is better captured.

Critical transition analysis of the Deterministic Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation - A flux-based network approach

A new method for constructing complex networks from fluid flow fields is proposed. The approach focuses on spatial properties of the flow field, namely, on the topology of the streamline field. The network approach is applied to a model of the wind-driven ocean circulation, which exhibits the prototype of a critical transition, that is, a back-to-back saddle-node bifurcation related to two separate dynamical regimes. The network analysis enables a structural characterization of, on the one hand, the viscous regime as a weakly-connected and highly-assortative regime, and, on the other hand, of the inertial regime as a highly-connected and weakly-assortative regime. Moreover, the network analysis enables a robust early-warning signal of the critical transition emerging from the viscous regime: The upcoming global regime change induced by the critical transition may be anticipated by a drastic decrease in the overall closeness of the network, which reflects a preceding local regime change in the flow field. Hence, the results support the application of network-based topology measures complementary to time-series based statistical properties as leading indicators of critical transitions.

Effects of Drake Passage on a strongly eddying global ocean

The climate impact of ocean gateway openings during the Eocene-Oligocene transition is still under debate. Previous model studies employed grid resolutions at which the impact of mesoscale eddies has to be parameterized. We present results of a state-of-the-art eddy-resolving global ocean model with a closed Drake Passage and compare with results of the same model at noneddying resolution. An analysis of the pathways of heat by decomposing the meridional heat transport into eddy, horizontal, and overturning circulation components indicates that the model behavior on the large scale is qualitatively similar at both resolutions. Closing Drake Passage induces (i) sea surface warming around Antarctica due to equatorward expansion of the subpolar gyres, (ii) the collapse of the overturning circulation related to North Atlantic Deep Water formation leading to surface cooling in the North Atlantic, and (iii) significant equatorward eddy heat transport near Antarctica. However, quantitative details significantly depend on the chosen resolution. The warming around Antarctica is substantially larger for the noneddying configuration (∼5.5°C) than for the eddying configuration (∼2.5°C). This is a consequence of the subpolar mean flow which partitions differently into gyres and circumpolar current at different resolutions. We conclude that for a deciphering of the different mechanisms active in Eocene-Oligocene climate change detailed analyses of the pathways of heat in the different climate subsystems are crucial in order to clearly identify the physical processes actually at work.

Continuation of probability density functions using a generalized Lyapunov approach

Techniques from numerical bifurcation theory are very useful to study transitions between steady fluid flow patterns and the instabilities involved. Here, we provide computational methodology to use parameter continuation in determining probability density functions of systems of stochastic partial differential equations near fixed points, under a small noise approximation. Key innovation is the efficient solution of a generalized Lyapunov equation using an iterative method involving low-rank approximations. We apply and illustrate the capabilities of the method using a problem in physical oceanography, i.e. the occurrence of multiple steady states of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.

OMUSE: Oceanographic multipurpose software environment

This talk will give a brief introduction to OMUSE, the Oceanographic Multipurpose Software Environment, which is currently being developed. OMUSE is a Python framework that provides high-level object-oriented interfaces to existing or newly developed numerical ocean simulation codes, simplifying their use and development In this way, OMUSE facilitates the efficient design of numerical experiments that combine ocean models representing different physics or spanning different ranges of physical scales, for example coupling a global open ocean simulation with a regional coastal ocean model. OMUSE enables its users to write high-level Python scripts that describe simulations. The functionality provided by OMUSE takes care of the low-level integration with the code and deploying simulations on high-performance computing resources, allowing its users to focus on the physics of the simulation. We give an overview of the design of OMUSE and the modules and model components currently included. In particular, we will discuss the process of creating a new OMUSE interface to an existing code, and explain how OMUSE keeps track of the internal state of a running simulation. In addition, we will discuss the grid data types and grid remapping functionality that OMUSE provides. We also give an example of performing online data analysis on a running simulation, which is becoming increasingly important as models simulate a broader range of scales, generating large datasets that cannot be fully stored for offline analysis.