Jane Holmes

Efficacy of β blockers in patients with heart failure plus atrial fibrillation: an individual-patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Atrial fibrillation and heart failure often coexist, causing substantial cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. β blockers are indicated in patients with symptomatic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; however, the efficacy of these drugs in patients with concomitant atrial fibrillation is uncertain. We therefore meta-analysed individual-patient data to assess the efficacy of β blockers in patients with heart failure and sinus rhythm compared with atrial fibrillation. METHODS We extracted individual-patient data from ten randomised controlled trials of the comparison of β blockers versus placebo in heart failure. The presence of sinus rhythm or atrial fibrillation was ascertained from the baseline electrocardiograph. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Analysis was by intention to treat. Outcome data were meta-analysed with an adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. The study is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov, number NCT0083244, and PROSPERO, number CRD42014010012. FINDINGS 18,254 patients were assessed, and of these 13,946 (76%) had sinus rhythm and 3066 (17%) had atrial fibrillation at baseline. Crude death rates over a mean follow-up of 1·5 years (SD 1·1) were 16% (2237 of 13,945) in patients with sinus rhythm and 21% (633 of 3064) in patients with atrial fibrillation. β-blocker therapy led to a significant reduction in all-cause mortality in patients with sinus rhythm (hazard ratio 0·73, 0·67-0·80; p<0·001), but not in patients with atrial fibrillation (0·97, 0·83-1·14; p=0·73), with a significant p value for interaction of baseline rhythm (p=0·002). The lack of efficacy for the primary outcome was noted in all subgroups of atrial fibrillation, including age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction, New York Heart Association class, heart rate, and baseline medical therapy. INTERPRETATION Based on our findings, β blockers should not be used preferentially over other rate-control medications and not regarded as standard therapy to improve prognosis in patients with concomitant heart failure and atrial fibrillation. FUNDING Menarini Farmaceutica Internazionale (administrative support grant).

Effect of age and sex on efficacy and tolerability of β blockers in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: individual patient data meta-analysis

Objectives To determine the efficacy and tolerability of β blockers in a broad age range of women and men with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) by pooling individual patient data from placebo controlled randomised trials. Design Prospectively designed meta-analysis of individual patient data from patients aged 40-85 in sinus rhythm at baseline, with left ventricular ejection fraction <0.45. Participants 13 833 patients from 11 trials; median age 64; 24% women. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was all cause mortality; the major secondary outcome was admission to hospital for heart failure. Analysis was by intention to treat with an adjusted one stage Cox proportional hazards model. Results Compared with placebo, β blockers were effective in reducing mortality across all ages: hazard ratios were 0.66 (95% confidence interval 0.53 to 0.83) for the first quarter of age distribution (median age 50); 0.71 (0.58 to 0.87) for the second quarter (median age 60); 0.65 (0.53 to 0.78) for the third quarter (median age 68); and 0.77 (0.64 to 0.92) for the fourth quarter (median age 75). There was no significant interaction when age was modelled continuously (P=0.1), and the absolute reduction in mortality was 4.3% over a median follow-up of 1.3 years (number needed to treat 23). Admission to hospital for heart failure was significantly reduced by β blockers, although this effect was attenuated at older ages (interaction P=0.05). There was no evidence of an interaction between treatment effect and sex in any age group. Drug discontinuation was similar regardless of treatment allocation, age, or sex (14.4% in those give β blockers, 15.6% in those receiving placebo). Conclusion Irrespective of age or sex, patients with HFrEF in sinus rhythm should receive β blockers to reduce the risk of death and admission to hospital. Registration PROSPERO CRD42014010012; Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00832442.

Beta-blockers for heart failure with reduced, mid-range, and preserved ejection fraction: an individual patient-level analysis of double-blind randomized trials

Aims Recent guidelines recommend that patients with heart failure and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 40-49% should be managed similar to LVEF ≥ 50%. We investigated the effect of beta-blockers according to LVEF in double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials. Methods and results Individual patient data meta-analysis of 11 trials, stratified by baseline LVEF and heart rhythm (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT0083244; PROSPERO: CRD42014010012). Primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and cardiovascular death over 1.3 years median follow-up, with an intention-to-treat analysis. For 14 262 patients in sinus rhythm, median LVEF was 27% (interquartile range 21-33%), including 575 patients with LVEF 40-49% and 244 ≥ 50%. Beta-blockers reduced all-cause and cardiovascular mortality compared to placebo in sinus rhythm, an effect that was consistent across LVEF strata, except for those in the small subgroup with LVEF ≥ 50%. For LVEF 40-49%, death occurred in 21/292 [7.2%] randomized to beta-blockers compared to 35/283 [12.4%] with placebo; adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.59 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.34-1.03]. Cardiovascular death occurred in 13/292 [4.5%] with beta-blockers and 26/283 [9.2%] with placebo; adjusted HR 0.48 (95% CI 0.24-0.97). Over a median of 1.0 years following randomization (n = 4601), LVEF increased with beta-blockers in all groups in sinus rhythm except LVEF ≥50%. For patients in atrial fibrillation at baseline (n = 3050), beta-blockers increased LVEF when < 50% at baseline, but did not improve prognosis. Conclusion Beta-blockers improve LVEF and prognosis for patients with heart failure in sinus rhythm with a reduced LVEF. The data are most robust for LVEF < 40%, but similar benefit was observed in the subgroup of patients with LVEF 40-49%.

Self-harm in people with epilepsy: a retrospective cohort study

Little is known about self‐harm in people with epilepsy, despite suicide being recognized as a leading cause of mortality in this population. This study aimed to investigate the characteristics of self‐harm in people with epilepsy, and associated demographic and psychosocial factors.

A cross-sectional observational study of pneumococcal carriage in children, their parents, and older adults following the introduction of the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine.

AbstractUsing nasopharyngeal carriage as a marker of vaccine impact, pneumococcal colonization and its relation to invasive disease were examined in children, their parents, and older adults in the United Kingdom following introduction of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) and prior to 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13).A cross-sectional observational study was conducted, collecting nasopharyngeal swabs from children aged 25 to 55 months who had previously received 3 doses of PCV7, their parents, and adults aged ≥65 years. Pneumococcal serotyping was conducted according to World Health Organization guidelines with nontypeable isolates further analyzed by molecular serotyping. A national invasive disease surveillance program was conducted throughout the corresponding period.Pneumococcus was isolated from 47% of children, 9% of parents, and 2.2% of older adults. For these groups, the percentage of serotypes covered by PCV7 were 1.5%, 0.0%, and 15.4%, with a further 20.1%, 44.4%, and 7.7% coverage added by those in PCV13. In each group, the percentage of disease due to serotypes covered by PCV7 were 1.0%, 7.4% and 5.1% with a further 65.3%, 42.1%, and 61.4% attributed to those in PCV13.The prevalence of carriage is the highest in children, with direct vaccine impact exemplified by low carriage and disease prevalence of PCV7 serotypes in vaccinated children, whereas the indirect effects of herd protection are implied by similar observations in unvaccinated parents and older adults.

Adaptive designs in clinical trials: why use them, and how to run and report them

Adaptive designs can make clinical trials more flexible by utilising results accumulating in the trial to modify the trial’s course in accordance with pre-specified rules. Trials with an adaptive design are often more efficient, informative and ethical than trials with a traditional fixed design since they often make better use of resources such as time and money, and might require fewer participants. Adaptive designs can be applied across all phases of clinical research, from early-phase dose escalation to confirmatory trials. The pace of the uptake of adaptive designs in clinical research, however, has remained well behind that of the statistical literature introducing new methods and highlighting their potential advantages. We speculate that one factor contributing to this is that the full range of adaptations available to trial designs, as well as their goals, advantages and limitations, remains unfamiliar to many parts of the clinical community. Additionally, the term adaptive design has been misleadingly used as an all-encompassing label to refer to certain methods that could be deemed controversial or that have been inadequately implemented.We believe that even if the planning and analysis of a trial is undertaken by an expert statistician, it is essential that the investigators understand the implications of using an adaptive design, for example, what the practical challenges are, what can (and cannot) be inferred from the results of such a trial, and how to report and communicate the results. This tutorial paper provides guidance on key aspects of adaptive designs that are relevant to clinical triallists. We explain the basic rationale behind adaptive designs, clarify ambiguous terminology and summarise the utility and pitfalls of adaptive designs. We discuss practical aspects around funding, ethical approval, treatment supply and communication with stakeholders and trial participants. Our focus, however, is on the interpretation and reporting of results from adaptive design trials, which we consider vital for anyone involved in medical research. We emphasise the general principles of transparency and reproducibility and suggest how best to put them into practice.

Looking Back on Self-Poisoning: The Relationship between Depressed Mood and Reporting of Suicidal Intent in People Who Deliberately Self-Poison.

&NA; Lifetime worst‐point suicidality is associated with risk of subsequent death by suicide. Yet little is known about how people who deliberately self‐poison (DSP) change their appraisal of suicidal intent of a single DSP episode over time. We assessed whether suicidal intent for a single index episode of DSP changed over time and factors associated with such change. We studied 202 patients admitted for DSP (66.3% female, all Caucasian), 18–85 years old (M = 37.8, SD = 14.8), using a longitudinal design (0, 3, and 12 months). The primary outcome measure was change in suicidal intent for a single index DSP episode, analyzed using multilevel modeling. Wish to die and whether the episode was considered a suicide attempt increased significantly with depressed mood. Wish to die associated with the index episode also increased over time independently of depressed mood. No association with time or depressed mood was found for perceived likelihood of dying. Depressed mood was strongly associated with appraisal of suicidal intent associated with a DSP episode. In suicide risk assessment, reports of the nature and severity of past DSP should be interpreted in light of current mood.

Nutritional intervention and neurodevelopmental outcome in newborn infants at risk of neurodevelopmental impairment: the Dolphin neonatal double-blind randomized controlled trial.

To investigate whether neonates at risk for neurodevelopmental impairment have improved neurodevelopment after docosahexaenoic acid, choline, and uridine‐5‐monophosphate supplementation versus controls.

HLA correlates in a cohort of slow progressors from china: Effects on HIV-1 disease progression

We looked at our HIV + slow progressors cohort to determine if there were any human leukocyte antigen (HLA) correlates for protection. No statistically significant allelic differences were found between the HIV + and control cohorts using regression analysis, though trends were noted. Data for Elite Controllers showed an increased frequency of B*57. Likewise, no correlation was inferred with the clinical data of the HIV + cohort. We hypothesize that the protective effect of HLA alleles may have been lost over time.

Single arm two-stage studies: Improved designs for molecularly targeted agents.

Mechanistic understanding of cancers and their potential interactions with molecularly targeted agents is driving the need for stratified medicine to ensure each participant receives the best possible care. This understanding, backed by scientific research, should be used to guide the design of clinical trials for these agents. The mechanism of action of a molecularly targeted agent often suggests that a biomarker can be used as a predictor of activity of the agent on the targeted disease. A biomarker driven trial is needed to confirm that the molecularly targeted agent stratifies the participant population with disease into high and low responder groups. We assume that the biomarker of interest can be dichotomised and propose a balanced parallel two-stage single-arm phase II trial that builds on existing two-stage single-arm designs. A single-arm trial cannot distinguish between a marker being predictive in the population as a whole and the agent causing an increased response in the marker positive group, but it is a first step. We compare this approach to the existing single-arm approaches, sequential enrichment, tandem two-stage, and parallel two-stage designs, and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each design. We show that our design compares favourably to existing designs in the Bayesian framework, making a more efficient use of collected data. We recommend using the parallel two-stage balanced or sequential enrichment designs when randomisation is not practical in a phase II trial.