Janelle M. R. Curtis

Genomic Signatures Predict Migration and Spawning Failure in Wild Canadian Salmon

High mortality of sockeye salmon in the Fraser River is associated with signals of metabolic and immune stress. Long-term population viability of Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) is threatened by unusually high levels of mortality as they swim to their spawning areas before they spawn. Functional genomic studies on biopsied gill tissue from tagged wild adults that were tracked through ocean and river environments revealed physiological profiles predictive of successful migration and spawning. We identified a common genomic profile that was correlated with survival in each study. In ocean-tagged fish, a mortality-related genomic signature was associated with a 13.5-fold greater chance of dying en route. In river-tagged fish, the same genomic signature was associated with a 50% increase in mortality before reaching the spawning grounds in one of three stocks tested. At the spawning grounds, the same signature was associated with 3.7-fold greater odds of dying without spawning. Functional analysis raises the possibility that the mortality-related signature reflects a viral infection.

The genetic structure of coastal giant salamanders (Dicamptodon tenebrosus) in a managed forest

Abstract The salamander, Dicamptodon tenebrosus , is threatened by habitat loss and fragmentation associated with forest harvest activities. We used three microsatellite loci and 38 amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) to quantify population structure and indirectly evaluate the impacts of forest harvesting on this species. We sampled two old growth sites, three second growth sites and three recently clearcut sites in British Columbia, Canada. Microsatellite allelic richness and the percentage of polymorphic AFLPs were positively correlated with the age of forest stands. Similarly, heterozygosity estimated from both marker types was positively correlated with stand age. Population subdivision ( F st ) estimated among forested sites using microsatellite and AFLP markers was 0.033 and 0.095, respectively. Lower genetic variation and heterozygosity in recent clearcuts suggest that clearcut logging may be associated with local population declines. Our genetic findings are consistent with previous studies that report lower salamander densities in recently clearcut sites.

Sensitivity Analyses of Spatial Population Viability Analysis Models for Species at Risk and Habitat Conservation Planning

Population viability analysis (PVA) is an effective framework for modeling species- and habitat-recovery efforts, but uncertainty in parameter estimates and model structure can lead to unreliable predictions. Integrating complex and often uncertain information into spatial PVA models requires that comprehensive sensitivity analyses be applied to explore the influence of spatial and nonspatial parameters on model predictions. We reviewed 87 analyses of spatial demographic PVA models of plants and animals to identify common approaches to sensitivity analysis in recent publications. In contrast to best practices recommended in the broader modeling community, sensitivity analyses of spatial PVAs were typically ad hoc, inconsistent, and difficult to compare. Most studies applied local approaches to sensitivity analyses, but few varied multiple parameters simultaneously. A lack of standards for sensitivity analysis and reporting in spatial PVAs has the potential to compromise the ability to learn collectively from PVA results, accurately interpret results in cases where model relationships include nonlinearities and interactions, prioritize monitoring and management actions, and ensure conservation-planning decisions are robust to uncertainties in spatial and nonspatial parameters. Our review underscores the need to develop tools for global sensitivity analysis and apply these to spatial PVA.

Transcriptomics of environmental acclimatization and survival in wild adult Pacific sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) during spawning migration

Environmental shifts accompanying salmon spawning migrations from ocean feeding grounds to natal freshwater streams can be severe, with the underlying stress often cited as a cause of increased mortality. Here, a salmonid microarray was used to characterize changes in gene expression occurring between ocean and river habitats in gill and liver tissues of wild migrating sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka Walbaum) returning to spawn in the Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada. Expression profiles indicate that the transcriptome of migrating salmon is strongly affected by shifting abiotic and biotic conditions encountered along migration routes. Conspicuous shifts in gene expression associated with changing salinity, temperature, pathogen exposure and dissolved oxygen indicate that these environmental variables most strongly impact physiology during spawning migrations. Notably, transcriptional changes related to osmoregulation were largely preparatory and occurred well before salmon encountered freshwater. In the river environment, differential expression of genes linked with elevated temperatures indicated that thermal regimes within the Fraser River are approaching tolerance limits for adult salmon. To empirically correlate gene expression with survival, biopsy sampling of gill tissue and transcriptomic profiling were combined with telemetry. Many genes correlated with environmental variables were differentially expressed between premature mortalities and successful migrants. Parametric survival analyses demonstrated a broad‐scale transcriptional regulator, cofactor required for Sp1 transcriptional activation (CRSP), to be significantly predictive of survival. As the environmental characteristics of salmon habitats continue to change, establishing how current environmental conditions influence salmon physiology under natural conditions is critical to conserving this ecologically and economically important fish species.

Visible Implant Elastomer Color Determination, Tag Visibility, and Tag Loss: Potential Sources of Error for Mark–Recapture Studies

Abstract Errors in visible implant elastomer (VIE) color determination may exert stronger influences on mark–recapture data quality than poor tag visibility and tag loss. I applied individual VIE tags to 567 wild long-snouted seahorses Hippocampus guttulatus using four fluorescent colors (red, orange, green, and yellow). Given VIE tag data were compared with tag data recorded by observers as they released recently tagged individuals back to initial capture locations. During releases, 13.3% of VIE tags were incorrectly read, primarily because of confusions between orange and red markings and between green and yellow markings. Tags were partially invisible in 5% of released individuals; yellow and green markings were the least visible. Whole or partial tag loss was 2.3% within 14 months of tagging. The ability to correctly determine VIE tag colors or detect markings varied among observers and according to the VIE tag color employed, skin color, and shade of the skin color (e.g., light versus dark green). Ob...

Setting Realistic Recovery Targets for Two Interacting Endangered Species, Sea Otter and Northern Abalone

Failure to account for interactions between endangered species may lead to unexpected population dynamics, inefficient management strategies, waste of scarce resources, and, at worst, increased extinction risk. The importance of species interactions is undisputed, yet recovery targets generally do not account for such interactions. This shortcoming is a consequence of species-centered legislation, but also of uncertainty surrounding the dynamics of species interactions and the complexity of modeling such interactions. The northern sea otter (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) and one of its preferred prey, northern abalone (Haliotis kamtschatkana), are endangered species for which recovery strategies have been developed without consideration of their strong predator-prey interactions. Using simulation-based optimization procedures from artificial intelligence, namely reinforcement learning and stochastic dynamic programming, we combined sea otter and northern abalone population models with functional-response models and examined how different management actions affect population dynamics and the likelihood of achieving recovery targets for each species through time. Recovery targets for these interacting species were difficult to achieve simultaneously in the absence of management. Although sea otters were predicted to recover, achieving abalone recovery targets failed even when threats to abalone such as predation and poaching were reduced. A management strategy entailing a 50% reduction in the poaching of northern abalone was a minimum requirement to reach short-term recovery goals for northern abalone when sea otters were present. Removing sea otters had a marginally positive effect on the abalone population but only when we assumed a functional response with strong predation pressure. Our optimization method could be applied more generally to any interacting threatened or invasive species for which there are multiple conservation objectives.

A protocol for better design, application, and communication of population viability analyses

Population viability analyses (PVAs) contribute to conservation theory, policy, and management. Most PVAs focus on single species within a given landscape and address a specific problem. This specificity often is reflected in the organization of published PVA descriptions. Many lack structure, making them difficult to understand, assess, repeat, or use for drawing generalizations across PVA studies. In an assessment comparing published PVAs and existing guidelines, we found that model selection was rarely justified; important parameters remained neglected or their implementation was described vaguely; limited details were given on parameter ranges, sensitivity analysis, and scenarios; and results were often reported too inconsistently to enable repeatability and comparability. Although many guidelines exist on how to design and implement reliable PVAs and standards exist for documenting and communicating ecological models in general, there is a lack of organized guidelines for designing, applying, and communicating PVAs that account for their diversity of structures and contents. To fill this gap, we integrated published guidelines and recommendations for PVA design and application, protocols for documenting ecological models in general and individual-based models in particular, and our collective experience in developing, applying, and reviewing PVAs. We devised a comprehensive protocol for the design, application, and communication of PVAs (DAC-PVA), which has 3 primary elements. The first defines what a useful PVA is; the second element provides a workflow for the design and application of a useful PVA and highlights important aspects that need to be considered during these processes; and the third element focuses on communication of PVAs to ensure clarity, comprehensiveness, repeatability, and comparability. Thereby, DAC-PVA should strengthen the credibility and relevance of PVAs for policy and management, and improve the capacity to generalize PVA findings across studies.

A synthesis of European seahorse taxonomy, population structure, and habitat use as a basis for assessment, monitoring and conservation

Accurate taxonomy, population demography, and habitat descriptors inform species threat assessments and the design of effective conservation measures. Here we combine published studies with new genetic, morphological and habitat data that were collected from seahorse populations located along the European and North African coastlines to help inform management decisions for European seahorses. This study confirms the presence of only two native seahorse species (Hippocampus guttulatus and H. hippocampus) across Europe, with sporadic occurrence of non-native seahorse species in European waters. For the two native species, our findings demonstrate that highly variable morphological characteristics, such as size and presence or number of cirri, are unreliable for distinguishing species. Both species exhibit sex dimorphism with females being significantly larger. Across its range, H. guttulatus were larger and found at higher densities in cooler waters, and individuals in the Black Sea were significantly smaller than in other populations. H. hippocampus were significantly larger in Senegal. Hippocampus guttulatus tends to have higher density populations than H. hippocampus when they occur sympatrically. Although these species are often associated with seagrass beds, data show both species inhabit a wide variety of shallow habitats and use a mixture of holdfasts. We suggest an international mosaic of protected areas focused on multiple habitat types as the first step to successful assessment, monitoring and conservation management of these Data Deficient species.

Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes.

Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0) that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat attributes along with demographic parameters in sensitivity routines. GRIP 2.0 is an important decision-support tool that can be used to prioritize research, identify habitat-based thresholds and management intervention points to improve probability of species persistence, and evaluate trade-offs of alternative management options.

Asymmetric oceanographic processes mediate connectivity and population genetic structure, as revealed by RADseq, in a highly dispersive marine invertebrate (Parastichopus californicus)

Marine populations are typically characterized by weak genetic differentiation due to the potential for long‐distance dispersal favouring high levels of gene flow. However, strong directional advection of water masses or retentive hydrodynamic forces can influence the degree of genetic exchange among marine populations. To determine the oceanographic drivers of genetic structure in a highly dispersive marine invertebrate, the giant California sea cucumber (Parastichopus californicus), we first tested for the presence of genetic discontinuities along the coast of North America in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Then, we tested two hypotheses regarding spatial processes influencing population structure: (i) isolation by distance (IBD: genetic structure is explained by geographic distance) and (ii) isolation by resistance (IBR: genetic structure is driven by ocean circulation). Using RADseq, we genotyped 717 individuals from 24 sampling locations across 2,719 neutral SNPs to assess the degree of population differentiation and integrated estimates of genetic variation with inferred connectivity probabilities from a biophysical model of larval dispersal mediated by ocean currents. We identified two clusters separating north and south regions, as well as significant, albeit weak, substructure within regions (FST = 0.002, p = .001). After modelling the asymmetric nature of ocean currents, we demonstrated that local oceanography (IBR) was a better predictor of genetic variation (R2 = .49) than geographic distance (IBD) (R2 = .18), and directional processes played an important role in shaping fine‐scale structure. Our study contributes to the growing body of literature identifying significant population structure in marine systems and has important implications for the spatial management of P. californicus and other exploited marine species.