Janet Dzangare

Patient Retention, Clinical Outcomes and Attrition-Associated Factors of HIV-Infected Patients Enrolled in Zimbabwe's National Antiretroviral Therapy Programme, 2007???2010

Background Since establishment of Zimbabwes National Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Programme in 2004, ART provision has expanded from <5,000 to 369,431 adults by 2011. However, patient outcomes are unexplored. Objective To determine improvement in health status, retention and factors associated with attrition among HIV-infected patients on ART. Methods A retrospective review of abstracted patient records of adults ≥15 years who initiated ART from 2007 to 2009 was done. Frequencies and medians were calculated for rates of retention in care and changes in key health status outcomes at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months respectively. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine factors associated with attrition. Results Of the 3,919 patients, 64% were female, 86% were either WHO clinical stage III or IV. Rates of patient retention at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months were 90.7%, 78.1%, 68.8% and 64.4%, respectively. After ART initiation, median weight gains at 6, 12, and 24 months were 3, 4.5, and 5.0 kgs whilst median CD4+ cell count gains at 6, 12 and 24 months were 122, 157 and 279 cells/µL respectively. Factors associated with an increased risk of attrition included male gender (AHR 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1–1.4), baseline WHO stage IV (AHR 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.6), lower baseline body weight (AHR 2.0; 95% CI, 1.4–2. 8) and accessing care from higher level healthcare facilities (AHR 3.5; 95% 1.1–11.2). Conclusions Our findings with regard to retention as well as clinical and immunological improvements following uptake of ART, are similar to what has been found in other settings. Factors influencing attrition also mirror those found in other parts of sub-Saharan Africa. These findings suggest the need to strengthen earlier diagnosis and treatment to further improve treatment outcomes. Whilst decentralisation improves ART coverage it should be coupled with strategies aimed at improving patient retention.

HIV testing uptake and retention in care of HIV-infected pregnant and breastfeeding women initiated on Option B+ in rural Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe has started to scale up Option B+ for the prevention of mother‐to‐child transmission of HIV, but there is little published information about uptake or retention in care. This study determined the number and proportion of pregnant and lactating women in rural districts diagnosed with HIV infection and started on Option B+ along with six‐month antiretroviral treatment (ART) outcomes.

Comparison of HIV Prevalence Estimates for Zimbabwe from Antenatal Clinic Surveillance (2006) and the 2005–06 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey

Objective To assess whether HIV surveillance data from pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC) clinics in Zimbabwe represent infection levels in the general population. Methods HIV prevalence estimates from ANC surveillance sites in 2006 were compared with estimates from the corresponding Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey 2005–06 (ZDHS) clusters using geographic information systems. Results The ANC HIV prevalence estimate (17.9%, 95% CI 17.0%–18.8%) was similar to the ZDHS estimates for all men and women aged 15–49 years (18.1%, 16.9%–18.8%), for pregnant women (17.5%, 13.9%–21.9%), and for ANC attendees living within 30 km of ANC surveillance sites (19.9%, 17.1%–22.8%). However, the ANC surveillance estimate (17.9%) was lower than the ZDHS estimates for all women (21.1%, 19.7%–22.6%) and for women living within 30 km catchment areas of ANC surveillance sites (20.9%, 19.4%–22.3%). HIV prevalence in ANC sites classified as urban and rural was significantly lower than in sites classified as “other”. Conclusions Periodic population surveys can be used to validate ANC surveillance estimates. In Zimbabwe, ANC surveillance provides reliable estimates of HIV prevalence among men and women aged 15–49 years in the general population. Three classifications of ANC sites (rural/urban/other) should be used when generating national HIV estimates.

Within-Gender Changes in HIV Prevalence among Adults between 2005/6 and 2010/11 in Zimbabwe.

Introduction Zimbabwe has reported significant declines in HIV prevalence between 2005/06 and 2010/11 Demography and Health Surveys; a within-gender analysis to identify the magnitude and factors associated with this change, which can be masked, is critical for targeting interventions. Methods We analyzed change in HIV prevalence for 6,947 women and 5,848 men in the 2005/06 survey and 7,313 women and 6,250 men in 2010/11 surveys using 2005/06 as referent. The data was analyzed taking into consideration the survey design and therefore the svy, mean command in Stata was used in both linear and logistic regression. Results There were similar proportional declines in prevalence at national level for males (15% p=0.011) and females (16%,p=0.008). However, there were variations in decline by provincial setting, demographic variables of age, educational level and some sexual risk behaviours. In logistic regression analysis, statistically significant declines were observed among men in Manicaland, Mashonaland East and Harare (p<0.01) and for women in Manicaland, Mashonaland Central and Harare (p<0.01). Although not statistically significant, numerical increases were observed among men in Matebeleland North, Matebeleland South, Midlands and for both men and women in Bulawayo. Young women in the age range 15-34 experienced a decline in prevalence (p<0.01) while older men 30-44 had a statistically significant decline (p<0.01). Having a secondary and above education, regardless of employment status for both men and women recorded a significant decline. For sexual risk behaviours, currently in union for men and women and not in union for women there was a significant decline in prevalence. Conclusion Zimbabwe has reported a significant decline among both men and women but there are important differentials across provinces, demographic characteristics and sexual risk behaviours that suggest that the epidemic in Zimbabwe is heterogeneous and therefore interventions must be targeted in order to achieve epidemic control.

Empirical validation of the UNAIDS Spectrum model for subnational HIV estimates: case-study of children and adults in Manicaland, Zimbabwe

Background: More cost-effective HIV control may be achieved by targeting geographical areas with high infection rates. The AIDS Impact model of Spectrum — used routinely to produce national HIV estimates — could provide the required subnational estimates but is rarely validated with empirical data, even at a national level. Design: The validity of the Spectrum model estimates were compared with empirical estimates. Methods: Antenatal surveillance and population survey data from a population HIV cohort study in Manicaland, East Zimbabwe, were input into Spectrum 5.441 to create a simulation representative of the cohort population. Model and empirical estimates were compared for key demographic and epidemiological outcomes. Alternative scenarios for data availability were examined and sensitivity analyses were conducted for model assumptions considered important for subnational estimates. Results: Spectrum estimates generally agreed with observed data but HIV incidence estimates were higher than empirical estimates, whereas estimates of early age all-cause adult mortality were lower. Child HIV prevalence estimates matched well with the survey prevalence among children. Estimated paternal orphanhood was lower than empirical estimates. Including observations from earlier in the epidemic did not improve the HIV incidence model fit. Migration had little effect on observed discrepancies — possibly because the model ignores differences in HIV prevalence between migrants and residents. Conclusion: The Spectrum model, using subnational surveillance and population data, provided reasonable subnational estimates although some discrepancies were noted. Differences in HIV prevalence between migrants and residents may need to be captured in the model if applied to subnational epidemics.

Does nonlocal womenʼs attendance at antenatal clinics distort HIV prevalence surveillance estimates in pregnant women in Zimbabwe

Objective: The objective was to assess whether HIV prevalence measured among women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) are representative of prevalence in the local area, or whether estimates may be biased by some womens choice to attend ANCs away from their residential location. We tested the hypothesis that HIV prevalence in towns and periurban areas is underestimated in ANC sentinel surveillance data in Zimbabwe. Methods: National unlinked anonymous HIV surveillance was conducted at 19 ANCs in Zimbabwe in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2012. This data was used to compare HIV prevalence and nonlocal attendance levels at ANCs at city, town, periurban, and rural clinics in aggregate and also for individual ANCs. Results: In 2000, HIV prevalence at town ANCs (36.6%, 95% CI 34.4–38.9%) slightly underestimated prevalence among urban women attending these clinics (40.7%, 95% CI 37.6–43.9%). However, there was no distortion in HIV prevalence at either the aggregate clinic location or at individual clinics in more recent surveillance rounds. HIV prevalence was consistently higher in towns and periurban areas than in rural areas. Nonlocal attendance was high at town (26–39%) and periurban (53–95%) ANCs but low at city clinics (<10%). However, rural women attending ANCs in towns and periurban areas had higher HIV prevalence than rural women attending rural clinics, and were younger, more likely to be single, and less likely to be housewives. Conclusions: : In Zimbabwe, HIV prevalence among ANC attendees provides reliable estimates of HIV prevalence in pregnant women in the local area.

Results from implementing updated 2012 World Health Organization Guidance on early-warning indicators of HIV drug resistance in Zimbabwe

Objective This study evaluated the performance of sentinel sites in preventing the emergence of HIVDR using Early Warning Indicators (HIVDR EWI) survey. Methods Adult and paediatric patient data on: On time pill pick up, Retention in care, Pharmacy stock-outs, and Dispensing practices was collected. Information from pharmacy registers was verified using facility-held cards. This was a cross-sectional analysis of retrospectively collected data from 72 sites providing both adult and paediatric ART as well as two providing adult ART only. All data were entered into and analysed using a WHO EWI data abstraction electronic tool. Results Twenty-one percent of sites providing adult and 4.2% of sites providing paediatric ART managed to meet the target for on time pill pick up. Retention in care indicator was met by 48.7% (95% CI: 36.9-60.6) of sites. ARV stock-outs occurred in 81.1% (95% CI: 70-89.3) adult sites and 63.9% (95% CI: 50-78.6) paediatric sites. ARVs were appropriately dispensed by 86.5% (95% CI: 75.6-93.3) of adult sites and 84.7% (95% CI: 74.3-92.1) of paediatric sites. Conclusions Most sites had low performance in many indicators in this survey and failed to meet the recommended targets. Some policies such as the current buffer stock and storage outside Harare should be revised in order to improve site access to ARVs. The country should prioritize the provision of viral load testing services in all provinces. The electronic patient management system should be rolled out to all ART sites to improve patient tracking and monitoring by sites.

Moderate Levels of Pre-Treatment HIV Drug Resistance — Zimbabwe, April–July 2015

Abstract Background The World Health Organization (WHO) HIV Drug Resistance (HIVDR) report 2012 demonstrated that the levels of HIVDR to first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) are increasing. This finding threatens to reverse a decade of gains in HIV/AIDS epidemic control. The WHO Global Action Plan for HIVDR emphasizes strengthening surveillance of drug resistance through the implementation of national cross-sectional surveys. We conducted such survey to determine the prevalence of HIVDR among ART-naive patients in Zimbabwe and to describe the profile of the surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRM) encountered in the country. Methods A prospective, nationally representative, cross-sectional survey was conducted in 35 clinical sites selected using two stage probability proportional to size sampling. Patients were enrolled during April–July 2015. Specimens were sent for genotyping to CDC Atlanta. SDRM were interpreted using Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database classification. Results A total of 361 subjects were surveyed. Most participants were female (60.3%) and the median age was 35.8 years. Thirty-four out of 361subjects presented with ≥1 SDRM (9.4%, 95% confidence interval: 6.8–12.8%) prior to initiation antiretroviral therapy (ART). Non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) mutations were the most commonly detected mutation (n = 30). Only two patients presented with a nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor mutation and one patient presented with a protease inhibitor mutation. In two patients, ≥3 SDRMs were detected, which may suggest they were not truly ART-naïve. Conclusion This study provides national estimates of HIVDR in a high burden country with broad access to ART and provides valuable inisight on the state of HIVDR in such setting. Zimbabwe has reached moderate levels of HIVDR in ART-naive patients, as specified by the WHO classification. These levels may impact the ability to achieve viral suppression in a significant number of patients initiating standard ART regimens in Zimbabwe, where NNRTI-based regimens are used as the first line. The use of drugs with high resistance barrier, such as dolutegravir, may improve the care of patients in the developing world, where individualized pretreatment genotype is not feasible. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.