Mutsa Mhangara

HIV testing uptake and retention in care of HIV-infected pregnant and breastfeeding women initiated on Option B+ in rural Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe has started to scale up Option B+ for the prevention of mother‐to‐child transmission of HIV, but there is little published information about uptake or retention in care. This study determined the number and proportion of pregnant and lactating women in rural districts diagnosed with HIV infection and started on Option B+ along with six‐month antiretroviral treatment (ART) outcomes.

A Reevaluation of the Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Scale-Up Plan in Zimbabwe.

Background The voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) program in Zimbabwe aims to circumcise 80% of males aged 13–29 by 2017. We assessed the impact of actual VMMC scale-up to date and evaluated the impact of potential alterations to the program to enhance program efficiency, through prioritization of subpopulations. Methods and Findings We implemented a recently developed analytical approach: the age-structured mathematical (ASM) model and accompanying three-level conceptual framework to assess the impact of VMMC as an intervention. By September 2014, 364,185 males were circumcised, an initiative that is estimated to avert 40,301 HIV infections by 2025. Through age-group prioritization, the number of VMMCs needed to avert one infection (effectiveness) ranged between ten (20–24 age-group) and 53 (45–49 age-group). The cost per infection averted ranged between

Cost-effectiveness of public-health policy options in the presence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in sub-Saharan Africa: A modelling study

811 (20–24 age-group) and

Factors Associated with Ever Being HIV-Tested in Zimbabwe: An Extended Analysis of the Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (2010-2011).

5,518 (45–49 age-group). By 2025, the largest reductions in HIV incidence rate (up to 27%) were achieved by prioritizing 10–14, 15–19, or 20–24 year old. The greatest program efficiency was achieved by prioritizing 15–24, 15–29, or 15–34 year old. Prioritizing males 13–29 year old was programmatically efficient, but slightly inferior to the 15–24, 15–29, or 15–34 age groups. Through geographic prioritization, effectiveness varied from 9–12 VMMCs per infection averted across provinces. Through risk-group prioritization, effectiveness ranged from one (highest sexual risk-group) to 60 (lowest sexual risk-group) VMMCs per infection averted. Conclusion The current VMMC program plan in Zimbabwe is targeting an efficient and impactful age bracket (13–29 year old), but program efficiency can be improved by prioritizing a subset of males for demand creation and service availability. The greatest program efficiency can be attained by prioritizing young sexually active males and males whose sexual behavior puts them at higher risk for acquiring HIV.

Empirical validation of the UNAIDS Spectrum model for subnational HIV estimates: case-study of children and adults in Manicaland, Zimbabwe

Summary Background There is concern over increasing prevalence of non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance in people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low-income and middle-income countries. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative public health responses in countries in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance to NNRTIs is high. Methods The HIV Synthesis Model is an individual-based simulation model of sexual HIV transmission, progression, and the effect of ART in adults, which is based on extensive published data sources and considers specific drugs and resistance mutations. We used this model to generate multiple setting scenarios mimicking those in sub-Saharan Africa and considered the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in 2017. We then compared effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative policy options. We took a 20 year time horizon, used a cost effectiveness threshold of US

Does nonlocal womenʼs attendance at antenatal clinics distort HIV prevalence surveillance estimates in pregnant women in Zimbabwe

500 per DALY averted, and discounted DALYs and costs at 3% per year. Findings A transition to use of a dolutegravir as a first-line regimen in all new ART initiators is the option predicted to produce the most health benefits, resulting in a reduction of about 1 death per year per 100 people on ART over the next 20 years in a situation in which more than 10% of ART initiators have NNRTI resistance. The negative effect on population health of postponing the transition to dolutegravir increases substantially with higher prevalence of HIV drug resistance to NNRTI in ART initiators. Because of the reduced risk of resistance acquisition with dolutegravir-based regimens and reduced use of expensive second-line boosted protease inhibitor regimens, this policy option is also predicted to lead to a reduction of overall programme cost. Interpretation A future transition from first-line regimens containing efavirenz to regimens containing dolutegravir formulations in adult ART initiators is predicted to be effective and cost-effective in low-income settings in sub-Saharan Africa at any prevalence of pre-ART NNRTI resistance. The urgency of the transition will depend largely on the country-specific prevalence of NNRTI resistance. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, World Health Organization.

Results from implementing updated 2012 World Health Organization Guidance on early-warning indicators of HIV drug resistance in Zimbabwe

Introduction Zimbabwe has a high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) burden. It is therefore important to scale up HIV-testing and counseling (HTC) as a gateway to HIV prevention, treatment and care. Objective To determine factors associated with being HIV-tested among adult men and women in Zimbabwe. Methods Secondary analysis was done using data from 7,313 women and 6,584 men who completed interviewer-administered questionnaires and provided blood specimens for HIV testing during the Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS) 2010–11. Factors associated with ever being HIV-tested were determined using multivariate logistic regression. Results HIV-testing was higher among women compared to men (61% versus 39%). HIV-infected respondents were more likely to be tested compared to those who were HIV-negative for both men [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.53; 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.27–1.84)] and women [AOR = 1.42; 95% CI (1.20–1.69)]. However, only 55% and 74% of these HIV-infected men and women respectively had ever been tested. Among women, visiting antenatal care (ANC) [AOR = 5.48, 95% CI (4.08–7.36)] was the most significant predictor of being tested whilst a novel finding for men was higher odds of testing among those reporting a sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the past 12 months [AOR = 1.86, 95%CI (1.26–2.74)]. Among men, the odds of ever being tested increased with age ≥20 years, particularly those 45–49 years [AOR = 4.21; 95% CI (2.74–6.48)] whilst for women testing was highest among those aged 25–29 years [AOR = 2.01; 95% CI (1.63–2.48)]. Other significant factors for both sexes were increasing education level, higher wealth status and currently/formerly being in union. Conclusions There remains a high proportion of undiagnosed HIV-infected persons and hence there is a need for innovative strategies aimed at increasing HIV-testing, particularly for men and in lower-income and lower-educated populations. Promotion of STI services can be an important gateway for testing more men whilst ANC still remains an important option for HIV-testing among pregnant women.

The emerging health impact of voluntary medical male circumcision in Zimbabwe: An evaluation using three epidemiological models

Background: More cost-effective HIV control may be achieved by targeting geographical areas with high infection rates. The AIDS Impact model of Spectrum — used routinely to produce national HIV estimates — could provide the required subnational estimates but is rarely validated with empirical data, even at a national level. Design: The validity of the Spectrum model estimates were compared with empirical estimates. Methods: Antenatal surveillance and population survey data from a population HIV cohort study in Manicaland, East Zimbabwe, were input into Spectrum 5.441 to create a simulation representative of the cohort population. Model and empirical estimates were compared for key demographic and epidemiological outcomes. Alternative scenarios for data availability were examined and sensitivity analyses were conducted for model assumptions considered important for subnational estimates. Results: Spectrum estimates generally agreed with observed data but HIV incidence estimates were higher than empirical estimates, whereas estimates of early age all-cause adult mortality were lower. Child HIV prevalence estimates matched well with the survey prevalence among children. Estimated paternal orphanhood was lower than empirical estimates. Including observations from earlier in the epidemic did not improve the HIV incidence model fit. Migration had little effect on observed discrepancies — possibly because the model ignores differences in HIV prevalence between migrants and residents. Conclusion: The Spectrum model, using subnational surveillance and population data, provided reasonable subnational estimates although some discrepancies were noted. Differences in HIV prevalence between migrants and residents may need to be captured in the model if applied to subnational epidemics.

Moderate Levels of Pre-Treatment HIV Drug Resistance — Zimbabwe, April–July 2015

Objective: The objective was to assess whether HIV prevalence measured among women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) are representative of prevalence in the local area, or whether estimates may be biased by some womens choice to attend ANCs away from their residential location. We tested the hypothesis that HIV prevalence in towns and periurban areas is underestimated in ANC sentinel surveillance data in Zimbabwe. Methods: National unlinked anonymous HIV surveillance was conducted at 19 ANCs in Zimbabwe in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2012. This data was used to compare HIV prevalence and nonlocal attendance levels at ANCs at city, town, periurban, and rural clinics in aggregate and also for individual ANCs. Results: In 2000, HIV prevalence at town ANCs (36.6%, 95% CI 34.4–38.9%) slightly underestimated prevalence among urban women attending these clinics (40.7%, 95% CI 37.6–43.9%). However, there was no distortion in HIV prevalence at either the aggregate clinic location or at individual clinics in more recent surveillance rounds. HIV prevalence was consistently higher in towns and periurban areas than in rural areas. Nonlocal attendance was high at town (26–39%) and periurban (53–95%) ANCs but low at city clinics (<10%). However, rural women attending ANCs in towns and periurban areas had higher HIV prevalence than rural women attending rural clinics, and were younger, more likely to be single, and less likely to be housewives. Conclusions: : In Zimbabwe, HIV prevalence among ANC attendees provides reliable estimates of HIV prevalence in pregnant women in the local area.

Pre-treatment drug resistance among patients initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Zimbabwe: 2008–2010

Objective This study evaluated the performance of sentinel sites in preventing the emergence of HIVDR using Early Warning Indicators (HIVDR EWI) survey. Methods Adult and paediatric patient data on: On time pill pick up, Retention in care, Pharmacy stock-outs, and Dispensing practices was collected. Information from pharmacy registers was verified using facility-held cards. This was a cross-sectional analysis of retrospectively collected data from 72 sites providing both adult and paediatric ART as well as two providing adult ART only. All data were entered into and analysed using a WHO EWI data abstraction electronic tool. Results Twenty-one percent of sites providing adult and 4.2% of sites providing paediatric ART managed to meet the target for on time pill pick up. Retention in care indicator was met by 48.7% (95% CI: 36.9-60.6) of sites. ARV stock-outs occurred in 81.1% (95% CI: 70-89.3) adult sites and 63.9% (95% CI: 50-78.6) paediatric sites. ARVs were appropriately dispensed by 86.5% (95% CI: 75.6-93.3) of adult sites and 84.7% (95% CI: 74.3-92.1) of paediatric sites. Conclusions Most sites had low performance in many indicators in this survey and failed to meet the recommended targets. Some policies such as the current buffer stock and storage outside Harare should be revised in order to improve site access to ARVs. The country should prioritize the provision of viral load testing services in all provinces. The electronic patient management system should be rolled out to all ART sites to improve patient tracking and monitoring by sites.